V1 (300)- 30 yo white male, tag
V2 (374)- 45 yo white male, passive station, takes stabs at flops, I've seen him only put in substantial money twice postflop both times with with top trips, did open K7s UTG and called a 3b
Hero's Image (550)- 25 yo white male, lag, been very active the last few rounds, 3b frequently, raising and cbetting IP and winning w/o sd, haven't show any bluffs on the river.

Preflop (4):
Hero is MP dealt AQ
Hero raises to 12, V1 calls from LP, V2 calls from BB.

Flop (32):
Q95
Checks to Hero who bets 25, V1 folds, V2 calls.

Turn (82):
3
V2 bets 30, Hero raises to 90, V2 calls.

River (262):
6
V2 shoves for 247, Hero ...

pf and flop are standard.

OTT I thought villain could be trying to draw cheaply or is inducing a raise with a made hand, raise enough to charge draws.

OTR I am a little confused I think the worst hand he would bet for value is KQ, I haven't seen him spaz out with missed draws before, maybe he has some sort of weird 2p.

I think given our line he is c/c KQ, I think his range is broken flush draws and maybe sets, or weird played AA, I see almost no viable 2 pair combos in his range outside of a freak flopped 2pair, so basically just polar. I think I call here. Idk, why exactly, the donk lead on turn weirds me out, we get 2:1 to beat a bluff here, I'm okay w that.

Our line looks super strong, I think villain is shoving for value expecting you to call.

V's line makes no sense except for 47ss and 67ss. I would have raised turn to $115. As played I'm calling.

Your image has been lag but not bluffy. If you were tight-weak, perhaps your opponent might attempt a bluff, that is if he is paying attention at all.

He also puts $ in post-flop with strong hands. Unless you've noticed him tilting since, I think we have to lay it down.

It doesn't matter that villain's line makes no sense. The board is not scary and he's pouring money in. You're beat. Trivial fold.

Hero's line is fine.

Turn looks 100% to be some sort of XXss hand trying to see the river for cheap.

T9 98 87 76
T8 86 JT J9 J8, maybe even KJ or KT
All of these hands make perfect sense given the action so far.

Easy check call from EP with any of these hands, and he might limp with all of them if he's limping KX trash hands and calling a 3bet.

All of these hands are either are pair+flush draw, flush+straight draws type hands and they all want to see a cheap river. Hence the turn blocking bet. Obv he calls all of these on the turn raise.

But the question is what does he do will all of these on the river? Does he bluff with all the ones that missed? If so, snap it off as they are a big part of his range here and he doesn't have that many value hands after he leads the turn and doesn't ship over your raise.

I think sometimes you are going to see 78 for rivered nut straight but it happens. A lot of the time you will see busted spade ombo draws and you will profit.

This is basically a spot where a live soul read is critical.

EZ game

Your tables might be tighter than my normal tables (where a $12 open is often seen as a limp). Anyhoo, it got a good result (narrowed the field to 3way), although I'm not sure it's the result I'd expect (especially with our raisey image, I'm surprised we didn't go multiway, which is not what I would want).

I think the SPR on the flop is such that we can plan to bet/fold on the small side on each street against this guy. We don't risk pot committing ourselves because stacks are fairly big, and this guy has proven to be a calling station (only showing aggression when he's ahead, so we can safely fold if he raises).

I probably bet slightly smaller on the flop so as not to build the pot huge (i.e. $20).

I would have just flatted the donk bet on the turn. My postflop plan was not to play for stacks, and yet now that is exactly what we are doing (we'll only have less than a PSB left on the river). I'm probably in calldown mode unless perhaps a draw comes in.

I would fold to the river shove. He has taken a very strong line (one that screams "I HAVE A SET!"), imo.

What was our plan on the river if he checks? Especially considering we have less than a PSB?

Raising the turn got us in a gross spot for stacks; did we want to play for stacks on the flop with just TP in an SPR ~11.3 pot?

ETA: Lol at saying Villain's line makes no sense. This is I-haz-a-set-101. They aren't playing back at you nearly as much as you think. Heck, they probably ain't even playing back at you, period.

GcluelessNLnoobG

I think calling flop, leading turn small and flatting a raise on a wet board is not a common line for a set.

It looks much more like busted spades.

call turn, fold river

Turn should be larger. Fold now. You are beating JT or a terribly played / spazzing Qx.

Very odd line by Villain.

Do we really believe Villain overcalls with AA, KK pre. I do not.

Do we really believe Villain check calls flop with a set/two-pair. Yes possible.

Do we really believe Villain leads Turn with a 1/3 pot bet and flat calls our raise with a set/two-pair. Starting to doubt it.

Do we really believe Villain open shoves River with any of the above or a Gutshot that gets there on the River.

I am calling B.S. on Villain's line.

Call getting better than 2:1.

An expanded version of my thoughts. A set is almost always c/r flop and/or 3b shoving turn with the FD out there and hero showing strength with a turn raise. The rivered straight and two pair combos are the only ones that make sense. Soul read time.

I disagree.
Plays more like V has a made hand on the flop and is donk-betting the turn to push hero off a spade draw. Or build a pot oop.

When Hero reraises - most oop spade draws would fold here.
But V calls and is happy to see the river.
On a non-spade river, V shoves.

v is not likely making this move with JT.
Remember - V is BB and is letting Hero do the betting. I've seen player show up here with KK.

At best, hero chops with another AQ. Most likely, he's losing the pot.

easy fold.

The bottom line is does this seem to be the type of Villain who gets aggressive with his draws and then shoves the river when he misses them (for a total of ~125bbs), or is he the type of guy who more-or-less passively tries to hit them postflop and then checks/"I missed" the river while complaining about how many outs he had to anyone who will listen?

Gtheoverwhelmingmajorityofouropponentsarethelatter G

Vs line seems like 99 or 55 to me. I would just call turn, I don't think V is ever donking with complete air here or a weaker Q. As played I fold.

Thanks for the comments all, very good points on both sides. I think this is a very close spot in terms of EV.

It was really hard think of a plausible way I could be beat, I am fairly confident I have the best hand OTT. Sets would usually bet bigger or c/r here.

It was also hard for me to believe villain is capable of sticking in 240 on a river bluff considering he had the goods the last 2 times all the money went in.



I did consider calling the turn to keep the pot managable, but the small bet just screamed "I want to draw cheap" and I couldn't help myself. But if I put in a raise here I think I have to call it off on blank rivers given stack sizes also taking into account I had been running over the table.

Ouch

It was a tough spot but I think you need to call if off given the dynamic

Close your eyes and stick it in like in grade school IMO. Not a dream spot, but not a terrible fold

FWIW, thinking you made a bad fold here is a pretty big leak.

I feel this line by villain is no way indicative of a set. He would usually go for stacks on the turn on this board. The only real hand that makes any sense is 78ss or possibly q9. This is very villain dependent, and I know the possible combos of hands he can have are very slim, but I think I find a fold here.

lol, prob thought he was value-betting AK bc it obv never loses

I do agree with this too though it's far from a bad fold

Tough spot. Looks like his call OTT was done with the intent to shove all rivers. Sometimes an opponent's sizing (turn) looks weak simply b/c they don't know how to size optimally.

Perhaps a quick shove might be a live tell as well. Otherwise, I also don't think the fold was bad given the history.