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Old 02-06-2019, 10:23 PM   #1
Rebus
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1/3 AQo river spot

Prob a pretty straight forward spot but I'm a low volume rec so never quite sure.

Hero (UTG+2) - 30's WG, glasses, tight image, not limping, one and lost a few medium pots so don't appear too nitty (370)
V1 (BB) - early 30's tatooed WG, ball cap. Nice guy losing a bunch, loose passive pre, pretty loose and can get aggro post (350)
V2 (UTG+1) - mid 40's AG waiting for 2/5. Plays like a solid TAG post, but limps quite a bit pre. (700)
V3 (BU) - 30's AG, loose and somewhat agro in position, tight OOP. (covers)

OTTH

V2 limps
H (AsQc) 20
V3, V1 and V2 call

Flop (72) ----- 6 9 Q rainbow
V2 x
H 50
V1 and V2 call

Turn (222) ----- 6 9 Q K r

checks around - obviously ****ty turn cause J10 and KQ just improved. v2 has been pretty c/r happy too so he'd totally check a strong hand to me. Seems like an obv check to me.

River (222) ----- 6 9 Q K Q
V1 135
v2 fold
H ?

I figured he'd bluf some of his missed 78, and might be overvaluing QJ or Q10 occasionally (not that likely), so I called....
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Old 02-06-2019, 10:45 PM   #2
KID777777
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Re: 1/3 AQo river spot

Not folding vs aggro guy post with this runout
Thinking whether jamming could be better than calling here as I think you lose to JT only and boats might size smaller OTR
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Old 02-06-2019, 10:52 PM   #3
Koss
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Re: 1/3 AQo river spot

Snap calling this, I don't really see what else we can do. We beat QJ/QT/Kx and some bluffs. We can consider folding to a much larger bet that polarizes him, but not getting almost 3:1.
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Old 02-06-2019, 11:12 PM   #4
rumsey182
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Re: 1/3 AQo river spot

So I was going to ask if you had any read on how he bet, how fast he bet, ect but I assume you don't really note that.

With reads this can go from a snap call to a snap fold.
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Old 02-07-2019, 01:05 AM   #5
Rebus
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Re: 1/3 AQo river spot

Quote:
Originally Posted by rumsey182 View Post
So I was going to ask if you had any read on how he bet, how fast he bet, ect but I assume you don't really note that.

With reads this can go from a snap call to a snap fold.
Yeah he bet it pretty quick and measured, maybe thought for 5 secs or so.
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Old 02-07-2019, 02:07 AM   #6
PFunkaliscious
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Re: 1/3 AQo river spot

Quote:
Originally Posted by Koss View Post
Snap calling this, I don't really see what else we can do. We beat QJ/QT/Kx and some bluffs. We can consider folding to a much larger bet that polarizes him, but not getting almost 3:1.

this. for that price, never folding.
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Old 02-07-2019, 07:35 AM   #7
Minatorr
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Re: 1/3 AQo river spot

Snap call, sorry you lost. You beat some weaker value bets and Qx. In general, when you can beat worse value bets, beat bluffs, and you have a good hand, snap call.
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Old 02-07-2019, 12:39 PM   #8
gobbledygeek
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Re: 1/3 AQo river spot

I have no clue how to play AQo in EP, but typically think that raising in this spot is the worst of all our options. We have a solid player already in the mix, we have a loose/aggro Button that'll often come along, which could add others; I think bloating the pot multiway OOP in this spot is the nut low route we can take. So if I'm cool with attempting to see a flop with this lineup, I'd just limp/evaluate. I also think it isn't a crime to fold in this spot. A lotta people mention "I never limp" as if it's some badge of honour; at the very least I would perhaps reconsider why you think that.

I'd be fine with checking the flop, underrepping our hand and seeing what happens. If betting (which I'm also ok with) I'd probably bet slightly less; we're really not looking to bloat a pot here.

I might be done with the hand once solid V2 overcalls and this card comes (completing both the OESD as well as KQ). I also check behind.

I'm snap calling the river as played against losing/loose V1 would could easily be value betting worse (or bluffing). Might even be some argument for a raise against this guy, but I'm fine with just calling.

GcluelessNLnoobG
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Old 02-07-2019, 02:24 PM   #9
Jasaka
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Re: 1/3 AQo river spot

on the river, if there are no combinations of hands you can beat, then your hand would be a pure bluff-catcher and even 3:1 odds probably isn't enough at a 1-3 game in a multiway pot. People just don't bluff into this many players 25% of the time. However, since, your A/Q beats a decent number of combinations that might bet here for value (especially since you checked the turn) it becomes an easy call since you are going to win about 50% and you are getting 3:1.

For an aggro player like this willing to bet for value when he thinks he has the best hand, his possible holdings are A/K (9 combos), K/K,9/9,6/6 (9 combos but we probably would have heard from these hand earlier), K/Q (3 combos), K/J (12 combos, although obv less likely he's betting this for value), Q/J (4 combos), Q/10 (4 combos), Q/9suited (possibly one combo depending on what the 9 was), J/10 (16 combos), plus any total bluffs like 7/8. Out of the 56 non-bluff combos, you can actually beat 29 of them. Even with weighting it a little toward nutty hands than thin value, you are easily winning in this spot about 50% of the time.

*i did these combos quickly in my head so they might be slightly off, and you aren't going to calculate it this way at the table. But, essentially you can see that there are a decent number of value hands you beat plus bluffs, so you should call getting 3:1. Without any value hands you can beat, you should fold. For example, if you held Q/10, A/K, or K/J, it's not looking very good.
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Old 02-07-2019, 03:51 PM   #10
pokerforjoker
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Re: 1/3 AQo river spot

Seems like an easy call but a thin raise.
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Old 02-07-2019, 05:40 PM   #11
Javanewt
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Re: 1/3 AQo river spot

Snappity snap the river. I don't think anything better is folding the river and nothing worse is calling, so no point in raising.
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Old 02-07-2019, 10:56 PM   #12
Rebus
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Re: 1/3 AQo river spot

He mucked quick after I called.

So an unequivocal consensus snap - I thought it was pretty close at the time, only convinced myself to call by telling myself he could be betting worse.

Gonna keep an eye out for spots where I'm maybe too nitty/MUBSY in future.

Cheers
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Old 02-07-2019, 10:58 PM   #13
Rebus
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Re: 1/3 AQo river spot

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jasaka View Post

For an aggro player like this willing to bet for value when he thinks he has the best hand, his possible holdings are A/K (9 combos), K/K,9/9,6/6 (9 combos but we probably would have heard from these hand earlier), K/Q (3 combos), K/J good.
I really doubt he was betting any Kx there TBH
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Old 02-07-2019, 11:08 PM   #14
Rebus
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Re: 1/3 AQo river spot

Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
A lotta people mention "I never limp" as if it's some badge of honour; at the very least I would perhaps reconsider why you think that.

GcluelessNLnoobG
I'm into limping but only with the set/nut flush mining hands - wasn't getting many/any in EP this session. Big cards I just raise to the upper limit of table norm's - if this is a leak it def ain't my most pressing one
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Old 02-08-2019, 12:04 AM   #15
WereBeer
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Re: 1/3 AQo river spot

The only reason I think about it OTR is to consider shoving, then I don't because a lot of hands beat us. Never folding.
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