$1200 effective with V. V was loosish pre/post with a shorter stack, but now seems to have tightened up a bit post. Still likes calls fairly wide pre.

EP makes it $11, V (MP) calls, H(LP) AQo $45, EP folds, V calls

Flop 974r ($100)

V checks, H $50, V calls

Turn Kr ($200)

V checks, H $100, V calls

River 6 ($400)

V checks, H checks back

Is this a fine double barrel with the overcard, and if so are we continuing on any rivers unimproved?

i'd just give up on the flop, don't particularly like betting my whole range here when he has all the nutted combos here, sets/two pairs and we have basically none. it hits his range pretty well and he aint folding much.

ott is ok i guess, it doesnt have to work that often to be profitable, we still have some equity when called, and the K completes our AK bluffs and it's pretty hard for him to call with 9x, 7x here when we dbl barrel.

think river ap we need to fire the last barrel, he should be super capped here as i don't expect him to be good enough to be x/c, x/c, x/jam a set here..... also if he had 108s i think he just donks out river a lot fearing a check behind. And he shouldn't have too many Kx here unless he didn't 3b AK pre (we block AK), or floated us with KQs/KJs w/ bdfd.

I agree with this post except for the flop.

If it was EP that called I would be less likely to c-bet the flop since they have so many overpairs in their range. Against a MP flat range we can apply a ton of pressure when we bet flop and barrel the turn. Plus we are extracting value from his possible draws. Additionally, he should fold all of his non 2 pair + hands by the turn.


I really don't like 3-betting pre if we aren't going to c-bet flops where we whiff.

First you say that it’s super hard for him to call the turn bet with 9x or 7x, which means he’s strong when he calls turn and has more than 9x or 7x... yet you want to triple barrel river because now you think he’s super capped? Doesn’t add up.

I don’t think your last line is necessarily a good way to think about 3-bet pots. There are just some flops we have to give up on and it is mandatory. E.g. we 3b SB vs MP with KQdd, flop comes 987ss or 987hhh.

I do agree if EP called this flop is a snap check back since they’ve got a lot of overpairs and that the cold caller’s range here is weaker so a cbet will yield more EV than cbet vs EP HU.

Thing is, we dont have a bunch of good turns to barrel. A 10 is pretty bad to barrel on, a 9 or below sucks. So that leaves us with J/Q/K/A, about 1/5 of the deck. We seriously cannot be barreling on bricks or a 10 here ott, he’s just going to station us down bc “lol he can have AK”.

A cbet isnt terrible and is probably ok in a vacuum, but if it were 974ss and we have no spade it’s a pretty clear give up

If he has 0% frequency of strong hands ott when he calls (two pair+), it doesnt necessarily matter whether or not it’s a tough decision for him with 7x, 88, 9x, 1010-JJ ott or whatever frequency he’s calling ott with as long as it’s non zero. His range exclusively otr are those pairs. Just an extreme example and not completely true in this scenario. It’s conditional probability

Also super hard /= pretty hard, super hard implies he’s only calling like 10% or less whereas pretty hard could range from 30-60%

E.g. probability of him calling 9x ott could be like 30%, but probability of him having a set or two pair otr GIVEN he called the flop and turn instead of raising either street is 0%. Ofc he still has some AK here and KQ/KJs with floated bdfd so it’s not like river is super +EV bluff

He’s basically capped to one pair hands here, whether it be 7x, 9x, 1010/JJ, 88, Kx, 65s, 86s

Check flop but as played shove river.

Wow, not exactly river card I want to 2.5x shove river on.
Vs a sticky fish.

Why is the 6 such a bad card? It's not like it's a 4 liner to a straight.....

Because it crushes his range. 108 got there. 76 96 46 all in his range also.

I expect to get called almost never. But no way he is folding weird 2 pair or straight.

Missed stack sizes

But I'm still bluffing river to get him off some weak pairs like 9x, TT, 65, etc. It sounds bad but bluffing sticky fish works sometimes. Letting sticky fish get to showdown every time we have a bad hand but can rep a good one is playing their game.

Results

Looks good except I size up turn if I’m planning to give up on most rivers which I probably am here. If he’s playing very loose pre he’s going to have a lot of trouble defending against a double barrel so I’m fine with this line as opposed to check flop.