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1/3 AQo on the button, 3 tough decisions 1/3 AQo on the button, 3 tough decisions

05-02-2019 , 02:05 AM
Played a hand tonight at 1/3 that had multiple points where I wasn't entirely sure what to do, looking for some input.

VILLIAN had just sat down at table and HERO had never played with him before, so no guesses on how he plays. He doesn't look like a nit but impossible to make a good guess at this point.

PREFLOP:
UTG straddles to 6. UTG+1 calls. UTG+2/VILLAIN raises to 26. HERO is on button with AhQx and slightly more than 400 in stack, having VILLAIN covered slightly. HERO calls, UTG folds, UTG+1 calls.

QUESTION 1: Call or 3-bet?
My first instinct here was to 3-bet, but then I started weighing the options in my mind and eventually settled on flatting. Since VILLIAN raised from early position, with a straddler and limper already in the pot, my read is that he's probably strong, and I don't want to 3-bet and then fold to a 4-bet. Plus, if I 3-bet, in order to generate any fold equity I'd probably have to make it around 80, and if I get called I'll have a 2-to-1 STP ratio with a hand that will miss the flop a lot and put me in awkward situations.

Of course there are reasons for 3-betting. I can force the straddler and limper out most of the time, I can take it down now with a hand that will miss the flop and just have to check-fold a lot, I have the best hand a decent percentage of the time and can get more money in now, I'm in position and can take control of the hand...should I have just gone for the 3-bet?

FLOP: Jh 5x 2h (can't remember the exact cards but something close to this)
Pot: 87
VILLAIN continuation-bets to 35. HERO calls. UTG+1 folds.

QUESTION 2: Is calling the best choice?
Despite mostly missing the flop, it feels way too weak to fold with two overs, two backdoors to the nuts, plus ace high, against a fairly small c-bet, with position. Particularly when the flop is somewhat dry. I suppose the argument could be made that a fold is best with another player behind.

I don't think a raise makes much sense unless I want to try to fold out specifically AK or small pairs that didn't make a set. Since I'm in position I'll have a good chance to take the pot away from those hands later anyway. But since I have so many good turns for me (aces, queens, hearts) and a few other decent turns (kings, tens), and I didn't 3-bet pre with a premium hand and am somewhat underrepped, it's not completely absurd.

Nevertheless, it's not like calling feels amazing here, so I want to at least ask the question. Should I consider just getting out of the way? Is there an argument for turning my hand into a semi-bluff?

TURN: Qh
Pot: 157
VILLAIN takes a long time to think and count out chips before betting 80. HERO...

QUESTION 3: Call or shove?

At this point, VILLAIN has a little less than 240 behind so a call will leave a PSB back.

In any case, amazing turn card, giving HERO TPTK and the nut flush draw. Of course, 10-9 makes a straight and heart combos now have a flush, so it's a wet card in general. There's no folding on this card, so it's either call or raise, and given stack sizes a raise kind of has to be a shove.

The reasons to call are obvious, we have a value hand that can only beat bluffs or thin value bets like AJ or KQ. If VILLAIN is ahead, we definitely have outs. A shove is probably never getting a call from a hand we're currently beating, with one or two exceptions. We block some of his more obvious value combos, making it more likely he's bluffing. His bluffs probably have very little equity, somewhere between 2-5 outs. My instinct from years of reading about the idea of poker game theory disasters is telling me to call.

As for shoving, the way I see it, there are a slew of good reasons. We can get called by KQ with the K of hearts and AQ some of the time and be basically freerolling. We can represent the nuts with impunity and make pretty much any hand uncomfortable, some players will fold two pair or even straights because they'll just assume the worst (a little merge-y, maybe). His turn bet, particularly with how long he considered it, just smells like an overpair that doesn't want to give a free card but doesn't love betting, and this is a great hand to use to try to bluff out an overpair while still having plenty of equity if called.

If VILLAIN is playing typical, or even loose, ranges, his early position raise over a limp shouldn't have very many heart combos in it given the A Q and J of hearts are accounted for, and he doesn't have 10-9 in his range that often either. Possibly not even QJ. So HERO has a range advantage in terms of being able to have flushes and straights, where VILLAIN only has QQ and JJ in his super-strong value range most of the time. Also, good chance HERO is going to call a VILLAIN shove or shove himself on the river anyway with TPTK, much less if the hand improves to two pair, trips, or a flush, so the money is likely getting in anyway. Finally, if I make the nut flush on the river, and villain has a set or straight, he might get away from it when I shove, so this gives me a chance to get paid now.

So that was pretty long, I just had a lot of thoughts and wanted to get them all out. In any case, what do you all think?
1/3 AQo on the button, 3 tough decisions Quote
05-02-2019 , 05:36 AM
All seem fine. Call now. If he bombshells river I don't think we can call.
1/3 AQo on the button, 3 tough decisions Quote
05-02-2019 , 08:31 AM
So preflop is going to depend on how +1 and the straddle play. If they play all sorts of garbage and punt with middle pair or top pair no kicker multi-way then I like a flat. If they are pretty competent players I would generally look to 3 bet.

As played, on the turn I think we have a clear flat. We have SDV, a nut draw, and block his most likely bluffs. In those kinds of spots we do well to proceed through a flat. We do pretty poorly against his bet/call range and I don’t think we can bluff him off of overpairs.
1/3 AQo on the button, 3 tough decisions Quote
05-02-2019 , 09:21 AM
Am i missing something or is T9 not a straight on J52Q? It doesn't matter that much i guess.

Preflop i'd almost certainly 3bet AQs, with the off suit variety i'm ok with either option. Flatting is gonna give us some playability and RIO issues with this hand, but we might not have the range advantage and/or FE we want versus his range to be able to 3bet profitably.

Flop: This is the decision that is the least close, imo. Yes, we have 2 overs + backdoor equity, but villain compounds on his preflop range advantage by betting into 2 opponents, on a flop where some of his worst hands (88-TT/AK/AQ/KQ) probably check at some frequency. And vs his value range we might have only 3 direct outs. I probably fold, even vs this sizing. Might call if we where HU.

Turn: I can see all the reasons for flatting and i don't mind it. But i think i lean towards jamming when we can get AA/KK/AQ to fold, and some non-zero % of the time we can get called by worse. Considering how valueheavy he should be, i don't mind effectively turning this hand into a bluff.
1/3 AQo on the button, 3 tough decisions Quote
05-02-2019 , 10:11 AM
I usually 3bet this pre, but I can get behind a flat vs. an unknown with position. Not thrilled with the flop call, but it's so small and we have overs and backdoors, so it's not terrible. Turn is a call. Bet is not too big and we have nut outs. He's unlikely folding better or calling with worse, so I don't see the point in raising. River just depends.
1/3 AQo on the button, 3 tough decisions Quote
05-02-2019 , 12:41 PM
My default play is to fold AQo to raises and especially EP ones. If I have reads that suggest otherwise, I'll do otherwise, but here we don't. I can't hate incredibly on a call because we will be in position, and while our RIO vs IO against the raiser are terrible, hopefully our RIO vs IO against an overcaller will be ok. For example, in cases where the raiser has JJ and the overcaller has AT, I'm hoping I can navigate my way to profit on A high flops in position.

I'm folding the flop. We're still readless, he's still in EP cbetting into 2 opponents, we still have a guy behind us to react to deal with. The more we're calling this the flop, the more we should just fold preflop, imo.

Since there's now way he has the nut flush and the biggest flush he can have is KThh (is that what he was raising preflop?) then I think I'm leaning towards a shove at this point. I think there are still a fair amount of hands that we need to fold out (even though some of the time we will be good and don't need to do this) and we credibly rep a lot of better hands. In many ways we're turning our TPTK into a semi-bluff here but it might be required against a decent part of his range. If he calls, suck out obviously.

GcluelessNLnoobG
1/3 AQo on the button, 3 tough decisions Quote
05-02-2019 , 01:48 PM
Prefer to 3b or fold preflop but on BTN I guess it's ok versus unknown V.

Fold flop versus 2 Vs. HU can float and see what develops.

AP: flat turn. V is unknown and uncapped still. H gets 3-1 on draw with money behind. I don't like to jam into unknown, uncapped Vs with one pair and a redraw offering V 2-1 on his call.
1/3 AQo on the button, 3 tough decisions Quote
05-02-2019 , 02:47 PM
If in this situation AKo is either a value raise or call, AQo can never be a fold. It's either a call (if AK is a raise) or a bluff raise (if AK is a call). I would probably err on the side of calling from the button because i will over realize my equity and have opportunities to bluff on later streets.

Otf, you have 2 overcards, bdfd, bdsd. This is as good a non pair flop as you can get pretty much. I'd consider both calling and raising because we have a lot of equity, but it's also nice to just take it down. In this situation, we're may have sdv and calling disguises the strength of our hand, so i would probably call.

Ott, we gain a ton of equity, pairing up and getting the nfd. Here I think you should shove because you have the flush ace, making flushes less likely. Your float looks like a possible draw, and the possible draw just came in. You can have the best hand with top pair, fold out some better hands, or hit the flush.
1/3 AQo on the button, 3 tough decisions Quote

      
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