1/3, 9 handed, table is loose and fishy

Hero just sat 3-4 hands ago and is UTG+2 with A️Q️

UTG ($300ish, no reads but seems like a fish) raises to 15, Hero calls, MP raises to 30, UTG and Hero call

Flop (~90): Q️J️4️

UTG checks, Hero checks, MP checks

Turn: A️

UTG bets $20, hero ??

I want to raise here, especially with Straight and flush draw possible, but at the same time still feel like we can't really get called by anything we're beating aside from draws and weaker TP's. Did I play this ok?

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I think a raise is probably great. He bet 20 into a pot of 90 which is a tiny bet. Your going to have lots of combo draws and strong flush draws that want to raise as a semi bluff here and so raising top two pair both for value and protection seems great. Additionally, you still have another person behind and by just calling your giving them incredible odds to draw to a hand that can beat you. I would make it like 135-150 with my whole range of bluffs and value here.

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$80

I'm confused about the environment here. You just sat down 3-4 hands ago and already know the table is loose and fishy, but you can't have specific reads about the 2 villains here, right? And effective stacks are 300? (you only mentioned 1 stack size)

Given that, I'm not really excited when I hold AQs and the pre-flop action includes a UTG raise and min 3!. I mean, only one of your opponents needs a premium hand for AQs to suck here.

But as played, you've got top 2 on the turn after a surprising check behind from MP. Are you committed with ~100 in pot and ~300 behind? Kinda hard to figure out where you stand here besides that you are vulnerable to draws if you are ahead.

This HH does not make sense. You describe the table as loose and fishy, but you slowplay a top 3% hand? You should be value betting the whole way.

AP, try to get a few more chips in, and hope a Q comes off.

To Badly Beaten: He was 3-bet preflop so he just checked to the raiser.

Definitely have to raise here on the turn to such a small turn bet. I'd make it something around $100.

When are you suggesting hero fold? To the original 5x open or the min-three bet closing the action. I don't see it making sense to fold to either of those bets.

He had 3 opportunities to act on his hand, and he slowplayed all 3:

I didn't suggest folding anywhere!

Obviously this hand is too good to fold for the small bets and raises. I'm saying that I don't know if a raise makes sense here and if you call the 20 and MP raises big I'm probably folding.

Again, my point is mostly just that hero has been at table for "3-4 hands" and gave no specific reads on the villains, just a general table read. Given that's not a lot of info, the pre-flop action is pretty scary for an AQs type of hand.

To get a little Bayesian here: if this is my first hand at the table, that pre-flop action is pretty scary for AQs based on my priors for an unknown table at 1/3. So how much would you update your priors based on 3-4 hands? I think not too much, especially as you probably don't know who might be the maniacs and who might be good players attempting to exploit the maniacs. Or maybe over the course of 3-4 hands people just had some hands.

I'm regretting wading into this and perhaps OP can clarify, but when I take these 3 statemens all together, I'm basically reading this as: "I just sat down and have no reads".

I mean, I get that in 3-4 hands you can get a sense of the looseness of the table, but I still have no idea how to interpret an UTG open and min-raise from from MP (beyond how I would read it if I just sat down).

(As an humorous aside, I think this OP is the opposite of when someone has been at the table for 3 hours and has no reads ;-)

Just to clarify

When I say no reads I meant like I don't know any specific tendencies. I got to watch this table in action for about a dozen hands before I finally got to sit down and saw enough to believe I'm not against anyone particularly good.

And yeah effective stacks are 300 my bad I posted this while half asleep lol.

In retrospect I definitely should have raised. I haven't played in months though and felt a little off in the beginning of my session

Thanks for the feedback


SPOILER FOR THOSE INTERESTED:

Hero just calls as does MP. River is Q️. UTG bets 45 and Hero reraises to 200. MP snap calls and UTG calls as well. UTG had KT, MP has KQ.

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MP is a special kind of weird.

I don't think 3-betting an UTG raise with AQs is good. Nor would back-4 betting to a 3 bet, nor would donking that flop (although this third decision is maybe the most defensible time to raise).

Well, then, you'd need to be cray cray to think calling it is good.

I don't think three-betting any hand vs an UTG open is good.

Well, then, you must be cray cray to think calling with any hand is good.

Clearly calling AA is good.

Why don't you just say that you don't give a **** about the purpose of this forum, giving reasonable advice?

People have different views on poker strategy. If everyone gave the same advice, there'd be no reason for this forum.

Didnt get past the pre flop action where i would have made it 90 pre. Think you are always ahead pre when you get bump raised and the OR just flats. You are usually dominating in that spot. AQs is just so strong vs that action

This is rather villain dependent. For some villains this $30 reraise means KK+.

Not in my experience and we have the absolute best hand possible vs KK besides AA. Nothing wrong with being wrong with AQs. I actually may have gone 75 pre and made sure they both call coz you for sure are favored 3way and the ev may actually improve when the both call. There is no better 3 way hand in poker. Seems like an edge i would want to pish pretty hard

Maybe not relevant, but AQs is the worst suited Ace to have vs KK. Even AKs is better.

Yeah i didnt realize that. So we have the worst suited ace vs kk. Guess the k's block the straights but we,are at 31% eq as opposed to 33%. I dont think that matters because he doesnt have kk most of the time. Im never getting mubsy pre. The action you see is almost always exactly what it reps at these stakes and AQs is near the very top of the deck

What are the assumptions making AQs the best 3-way hand? I mean, obviously I get the suited part, but the AQ part?