Hero ($500) is new to table and has no history with V ($1500+)

Hero raises to $12 UTG with AQcc, 2 callers, V in BB calls

Flop ($50): Js Ts 9d
V checks, Hero bets $25, fold, fold, V calls

Turn ($100): Ks
V bets $100, Hero ???

I dont like being deep here at all considering how this hand is developing. Donking full pot into you on the turn is pretty strong, and how much is it gonna be on the river?We arent necesseraly beat here, but we are put in a tough spot on the river and may have to soulread for the rest of our stack or a very big bet. If he has a flush it sucks because we are drawing stone dead right here on the turn.

As a default against an unknown i am folding the turn here with a minimum loss in the hand.

If he's remotely good, there's nothing you beat here that he plays this way with other than a bluff. I'd pay attention to him in the future and fold now.

I don't really have a great plan for the river, which will definitely be a tough spot, but are we discounting the villain having just a queen here that much? There are no reads and this is a tough spot but villain's range is wider than just a flush.

If we narrow the villains range to QQ,AQs,Q2s+,Q9o+ and all 2 card spade combos, we are still 44%. We can discount QQ and AQ and trashy spades like 9s4s etc..., we are over 50% equity.

I know we are drawing dead to a flush but I hate just folding the deluxe end of the straight with a 4 straight on board, especially when villains range is not just a flush.

I'm leaning towards a call.

Many weak players would be playing a QsX hand this way, but the fact that you have absolutely nothing on him and really aren't strong enough to call a big river bet make this a straightforward fold.

If you had reads on him and thought he would play QsX this way, was a bluffy player, or that he would slow down on the river, I'd consider a call, but it would have to be against a very specific opponent. As is, any follow-up would be at least 150, meaning you have to now call off half your stack with a hand that is probably only good 30% of the time. In addition, any spade river or board pair just makes this even worse.

Save your money, fold.

Rubixxcube: If this was the river, and you add a dead card to the board, I am absolutely calling, but on the turn, when V can fire off another large bet, and the board can get even worse, it is a bad spot to get involved. At 44% equity with another bet coming potentially for 60+bb, do you really want to take those odds against an unknown on the turn?

I think with most non-drawing hands he would cr the flop, so he probably has a draw.

So does he have a flush or a straight? We can't go buck wild with our nut straight because he could easily have a flush in this situation, especially as a live unknown villain.

His pot sized bet looks like he's setting you up for an all in on the river, hoping you have some strong hand, i.e. straight or tripps, or he could have a weak flush ( small to mid sc ) or a straight, is afraid of the 4th spade.

So for the turn:

x% chance of flush = EV
50% | (.5) (200) - (.5) (100) = $50
60% | (.4) (200) - (.6) (100) = $20
70% | (.3) (200) - (.7) (100) = $-10
80% | (.2) (200) - (.2) (100) = $-40

On the turn, even with a 60% chance of a flush, we still are +EV, so I'm leaning towards a call.

Then there's the river... He's planned his turn bet so you'll be forced to go all in the river.

Pot: $300, you have only $363 left. He'll push all in:

x% chance of flush = EV
50% | (.5) (663) - (.5) (363) = $150
60% | (.4) (663) - (.6) (363) = $47
70% | (.3) (663) - (.7) (363) = $-55
80% | (.2) (663) - (.8) (363) = $-157.8

Sigh.. I think I would call... It's just, even with him having a flush 60% of the time, we still are +EV, and he could have so many damn hands..

The pot sized bet on the turn certainly means strength of some kind. But he could overplaying his straight and trying to rep a flush.

Against this unknown, I call! We hope for no spade on the river and call the river and or make a thin value bet.

I'd either (a) limp (possibly to limp/reraise depending on who is doing the raising / stack sizes), or (b) raise a lot more in order to have a legitimate chance at narrowing the field, cuz I don't like going multiway in raised pots with TP type hands.

I check the flop and might even fold to a bet. This flop should smash multiple opponents, so I'm not sure why were betting. Plus our implied odds suck as 4-to-a-straight is obvious, plus we have RIO against better hands.

I probably fold the turn as played.

ETA: Everyone else is cool with the flop? I hate the flop bet, tbh.

GcluelessNLnoobG

This really comes down to what you think V is capable of. Some players over value their hands and will donk here with a Q. KQ is out of the question so it is either a flush or a Q. or maybe even the same hand. Either way will V bet a Q here or check? It's read dependent but you very little invested so if you are wrong its only a small error. It sort of seems with a bet this big he wants to encourage you to fold. If he has Ax of spades he probally bets smaller but again not always. I have seen some players bet big with big hands and also bet small with marignal hands.