AsTs in CO

1/3, $300 effective

Preflop:
Two limps to me in CO with AsTs
I limp behind
BU limps
BB checks
-I think preflop seems standard. I think it wouldn’t be terrible to raise AsTs from LP, and I think many people on this board will tell me I should have, but I am happy to see a cheap flop with a speculative hand, which seemed likely since BU and the blinds aren’t the type that are super eager to raise over limpers.

Flop ($16): T84r (one spade)
Checks to me
I bet $15
BU calls
BB calls
Others fold
-I wouldn’t hate this street checking through before betting turn/river, but I’m betting flop because of the number of possible overcards on turn/river.

Turn ($61): T842r (completing rainbow)
BB checks
I check since I don’t expect to get called by worse for all three streets postflop.
BU $40
BB folds
I call

River ($141): T8427r (no flush)
I check
BU $50
Call?

This might seem like a simple spot, but here’s why I’m posting this. I’m specifically trying to improve my intuition about how my hands fare against opponents’ likely ranges, to get a gut feeling at the table of where I stand, so I can quickly make decisions without tanking and estimating ranges in every small pot.

In this case, my at-the-table gut feeling (i.e. the thought process I use to actually make decisions) is that my TPTK is often behind when he’s bet turn and river, even on this dry board, but I should be good at least the required 26% of the time. Does this line up with other people’s at-the-table gut feelings in this spot? If not, what features of the hand are you basing your assessment on?

I would raise pre though limping seems ok.

I bet turn and disagree that we can't get 3 streets from JT, QT, KT.

As played I'm calling a small river bet. A lot of the hands that beat you would've raised on flop, especially since it's 5 ways

Call river as played. Limp is not standard but no need to get in to that.

As played, why bet flop so large? I think i prefer betting turn again given flop action.

ouch bud, we need to work on some things;

ATs is not really a speculative hand in live poker in LP vs a bunch of limpers. This is a fat value type of hand because these guys are going to call with literally any two cards up to about $15 or so. Raise for value friend.

You basically smash the flop (again we're talking about live poker here). Imagine the potential had you raised pre. Anyway as played betting is correct.

The turn is yet another prime opportunity to bet again. You just said you bet the flop due to potential overcards drawing against you and then a total brick peels off. Why wouldnt you bet for the same reason again? What better hand do you think calls the flop and then traps you on the turn? If someone goes bezerk and really did spring a trap then good for him, you fold to his raise and move on. But the vast majority of the time you'll be printing money here so bet and be confident about it.

I cant speculate on the river because the hand was played so oddly up until this point that their ranges could be anything. I guess just call and hope for the best now.

I raise pre on most tables and I do a lot of overlimping. I can't hate it too much though.

Fine with the hand post, river is an easy call without reads for this price. Villain can easily assume JTo is good.

ATs is not a speculative hand.
You are in LP.

Imagine how much bigger the pots are when you raise get callers and win it.

I don't have any other comment than you should have raised it PF. There's no question about it.

If ATs is a slam dunk fat value hand, surely A9s is worth raising as well? What about A8s? How far down do the “fat value” hands go? What about offsuit aces?

A9s is much lower value than ATs because it can't make broadway.

Raise pre. As played, bet turn if we're going to call a turn bet. As played, call river.

The reason AT does so much better than A9 (besides making straights) is that your kicker can dominate a lot of the top pair type hands in exactly the flop you found yourself in, whereas a meager 9 wont. You get a lot of calls preflop from other competing broadway hands like JT/QT/KT, not to mention hands that connect with straight draws when you flop a T.

With a hand like A9 you cant continue as easily even if 9 is top pair, because the kinds of hands you get action from on a 9 high flop wont pay off later and you could already be drawing very thin.

That said there's a playable range of suited aces in LP. If you're in LP I'd probably limp A2-A9 and if I'm BTN and possibly CO I'd raise A2-A5 and limp A6-A9, all suited of course. I dont really play ace rag unless i thought I could get it heads up OTB.

From my perspective, it's super standard to raise pre-flop from CO after two limps.

I'm leading the turn after a brick. As played, check-calling turn and river is fine, IMO.

Grunch

Raise a lot pre. ainec. Get the pot heads up in position.

As played call river, but as others have mentioned make it $20 pre

I'm fine with preflop and it is now my "standard" (whereas in earlier years I may have leaned towards raising).

I'm fine with a flop bet but we bet way too much on this fairly drawless board. Pot is $16, so I'd bet no more than $8. Our hand is going to remain small so we want to keep the pot small; the fastest way to make a bigger overall pot is by betting large on the flop.

I'd probably lean to bet/folding the turn. Again, I'd lean to small betting, going no more than $25.

As played, and in spite of showing decent turn weakness, I think I could lean to folding the turn depending on our read on the Button.

On the river, one of the only draws (J9) got there. Plus a huge number of opponents insta-checkback TP type hands.

The more I play, the more I realize that if you simply never called a single bet on the turn/river with TPTK- (especially on fairly drawless boards), you'd probably be ~fine against a lot of opponents.

GcluelessNLnoobG

I'd just like to add the overwhelming feeling I get from posts like these are that hero is too afraid to make mistakes. Like you want to limp because you're worried raising might cause you problems later on down the hand. This is a game of imperfect knowledge. Sometimes you will make the incorrect decision and it will cost you more money than had you played it another way. Limiting your losses is not how you want to approach the game. Maximizing value is. Of all the times raising AT backfires on you here you need to be aware of all the times it nets you a decent sized pot. Use your equity and use it hard.

With two limps in front of you, it’s not terrible to overlimp here but I’d even raise A10o here.

Bet turn, doesn’t have to be a large sizing.

Call river for this price whenever you beat some of villains value