I am new to the table I have been there for a little over 1 orbit we are playing 9 handed. There is one villain he is an older guy probably 50s with gray hair. He hasn't played a hand yet so I don't really have reads. More relevant is my image. I am a 24 year old young white male and I was spending a lot of the first orbit talking to another young reg who I am friendly with. We were discussing hand history promotions and different rooms in the area. I know probably not the best look for my table image but when you spend enough time at the same room its hard to not be friendly with people and there also aren't that many other players in my age range. So neither I nor the villain have played a hand yet and I've only been at the table a little over one orbit

I raise 15 UTG with AK and the villain calls on the button everyone else folds

He has 247$ to start the hand and I cover

flop comes A 7 4 (27 in the pot after rake) I bet 15 he calls.

My thinking here: rainbow flop so I am going to be using a smaller sizing because I have a large range advantage on this flop

Turn 3 (57) I bet 50 and he snap ships it in for 217.

In hindsight maybe I could size up flop to 20 and then turn to 60 to make the river shove a little bit easier. The way I played it if he calls turn my river shove is going to be a little bit more than the size of the pot. I sized up on the turn to try to set up a reasonable river shove and I think his A8-AQ is going to be really inelastic.

So he snap rips it in and I go into the tank a little bit. Obviously I am very high up in my range so this is a GTO fist pump call for sure. But I've learned from these low stakes games that our 1/3 opponents usually don't bluff enough. This card also does bring in the only obvious draw on the flop 56 of which he definitely has all the suited combos and he may have some offsuit combos from the button. I keep going back to he hasn't played a hand yet so I can't be sure hes your typical limpy bad low stakes villain. He could also have turned two pair or slowplayed A7, A4 on the flop. I also can't really find any bluffs that he should have in this situation

I'm in the tank for like 15 seconds thinking about this and I start talking to him. I ask if he has 56 he says he would just call with that hand its the nuts. Then I ask if he will show if I fold he says no. I think some more and say out loud to myself its really weird that he just snap ripped it in and he didn't even think about it. He says 2nd nuts, 3rd nuts type of hand.

I am no speech play expert but I still always try to talk to my opponents in these situations so I can try to get better at it. How would you read these comments and what's your play?

Vs. an unknown in his 50s, so I fold and try to get him to show (w/o showing myself), although it doesn't sound as if he's going to.

You might be a young reg in his eyes, but you still raised UTG your first played hand and c-bet an A-high flop and bet almost pot on the turn (a little high, I think), so he shouldn't be bluffing too often here.

The speech means nothing until you have something to relate/compare it to.

I wait for a better spot.

Exploit fold here. This is like the first time I will agree with this forums population.

Baluga theorem, I fold this every time without much thought against the described villain type

You agree with me all the time

Fold, but only because you have the Ah. If you didn't, I would call because he could be overvaluing AQhh, AJhh, AThh.

What is our calling range if we fold this hand? Only AA and the occasional 56s?

I’m calling AK (w/out Ah), A4s, A3s, A7s, 43s, 44, 33, 77, AA, 56s. If you have 56s you should have everything else.

It’s completely dependent on what your UTG raising range is. The only strong hands I don’t arrive with here are 74 and 73 but it should be different for you

I always limp to mostly reraise AK but that's me.

I check the flop. If significant bets start going in postflop I'd much rather they go in by check/calling than by betting and getting called (as his calling range should be much tighter against an EP open than his betting range will be with us showing weakness). Flop is also bone dry and there are really no draws to charge.

Having bet the flop I would consider checking the turn. Too many tighter players are capable of sigh folding much weaker Ax hands here not wanting to risk facing a big river bet.

As played, pretty trivial fold, imo. Literally the only draw got there and he could easily have simply flopped a set or whatever. And old tight guys simply don't do this with AQ, imo.

Gyou'reoverthinkingthings,imoG

Haha well I guess I feel a lot better about the hand now.

Results: I folded and he rolled over the ole Qd3d before telling me to take my panties off and put on some big boy pants

Pretty surprising results.

But this is a large reason I aim to attempt to get to showdown by playing fairly passively postflop (and even a good reason to not build big pots OOP preflop). Sometimes people click buttons (either by choice or randomness) and force us into big mistakes. Passive play with an eye to getting to showdown to lay our claim to the pot helps prevent this.

GimoG

This is really just so wrong and I don't actually understand how you came to such a perverted understanding of winning poker. Every experienced poster, every training site, every good winning poker player routinely gives advice that directly contradicts you're limpy passive play. Hands like this are exactly an example of why passive play is so bad when we can get people to put money in with completely garbage equity on the flop and turn.

He makes a crazy airball bluff and gets it through this doesn't mean we start checking down TPTK on a dry board. It means we adjust: label this guy as a little bit of a spazzy fish, continue value betting him and start calling down top end value when he raises.

Calling off all our chips having gotten in a rather small percentage of them preflop isn't the best play in general either; good luck with that being profitable long term, even against the most aggro of aggrotards.

You realize we don't have to bet and get 4 streets and play for stacks every time we flop TP, right? We're allowed to check a street and there are many good reasons to do so.

Gbutplayhowyouwant,Idon'tcareG

I'll never understand why, in live poker, people try to take the rake into factor when c-betting. That's just overthinking and will often lead to smaller size bets which trims down the profit you're making. The pot on the flop is $34 dollars, which makes it easier to c-bet $20 instead of $15.

While taking the rake into consideration regarding bet sizing is probably overthinking things, I think in general the above is backwards. The board is bone dry, which means that if we're betting we should typically be betting less, not more. So betting in relation to the non-raked pot is actually worse in this regards.

GcluelessNLnoobG

I'll agree here, while I'm still looking to bet bet bet, when it turns a 3 or an 8, I'd consider checking a decent clip since those cards complete the most obvious straights.

Him saying he has a 2nd or 3rd nuts type hand is classic strong hand statement you can use as a weakness tell going forward.