Quote:
Originally Posted by NebDanger
I knew I messed up flatting turn and felt I was committing myself to calling off on river but wanted to hear other people’s thoughts.
I don't think it's a mistake to flat turn at all, in fact that's what induced the river bluff. A solid villain can't call the turn shove with T9o anyway (see below).
Quote:
Originally Posted by SwolyswoND
I think I speak fairly for the raise flop crowd when I say that we expected to be insanely far ahead of V1's range and are raising for pure value against him,
As said before, it's not a value bet if we're so "insanely far ahead" of V1's range so he folds if we raise. It's like betting quads on the flop 'for value' on a dry flop. It's actually a 'missed-value' bet against bluffy villains due to folding out bluffs. We are purposely under-playing our bluff catcher to induce bets that we won't get had we played strongly.
Against bluffy villains, it's a mistake to raise early. How many times have we seen a disciplined ABC player wait patiently for AA against a bluff-tard, only to immediately raise flop big 'for value' and had villain snap-fold instead of letting bluff-tard bluff off the rest of his stack? Even bluff-tards know to fold when played back.
Quote:
Originally Posted by SwolyswoND
and we knew V2's most likely holdings were overpairs (which he almost certainly had given his comment, unless he had the last two nines in the deck)
I don't think this is necessarily true. Him flatting a bluffy V1 isn't an overpair play with a drawy board and player behind unless V2's weak-tight. He can also have 76s.
Quote:
Originally Posted by SwolyswoND
FWIW, results oriented but V1's holding demonstrates why you need to jam turn. Sure he ended up bluffing it off on the river here anyway, but he's not going to do that every time, while he's never folding his draw OTT but is going to c/f the river some % of the time when he misses.
Actually V1's holding can't call a turn shove (if he's playing math). He's getting 3-1 (65+275+170/170) on a <4.5-1 draw. In addition Qd and 7d are not clean outs for him - plus he maybe drawing dead against fullhouses already since board paired. Only a horribad villain would call here, and if that's the case we can just as much flat and let him bluff his missed draw. We are overestimating his turn calling frequency and underestimating river bluffs.
It's difficult to find an optimum line against this kind of villain, but deviating from 'standard' lines are often more profitable. Yeah sometimes he luckbox into a winning hand, but today's game winning a whole stack with just top pair is a rare opportunity and should be exploited when possible.