Ship it in. Standard.

I little late to the party but I don't think flatting is as bad as most seem to think. GG has some valid points but I think he didn't articulate them as clearly as the raising camp.

ON FLOP:

The key is V2's weird play on the flop. Yes, we can discount most sets from his range, but we can also discount most KK QQ from his range. He's the preflop raiser, but yet he only flat the flop on a damp board with a third (presumably competent) player behind?. If V2 is decent (and it seems he is) he SHOULD be raising here with overpair+. The call is weak, I think there maybe more med pocket pairs/smaller diamonds here that wanted showdown/see turn vs V1. Discounting KK/QQ/sets we are actually quite ahead as GG said (we absolutely crush/don't need to protect against one of the obvious draw). Raising flop will fold out a lot of hands that will call turn. If we flat behind, we can also often induce bluffy V1 to fire another bluff on the turn which V2 will often flat, then we can either call again or raise turn - in essence letting V1 drive the action for our disguised hand. A third diamond can get us paid as matzah said.

ON TURN:

If V1 is blocking and a bluffer wouldn't it be best to flat turn and let him fire a desperate bluff at the river? I think shoving turn will pretty much fold out everything except if he luck-boxed 2P to FH or possibly trips. Raising small for thin value is fine, but shoving seem way polarized.

If u cant figure it out I am not gonna waste more time trying to make u understand.

V1 has only $170 ish behind after his turn donk, right?

Spread that peanut butter and JAM

Seems the consensus is to get it in after the villain bets small on the turn. At the time I believed flatting would induce villain to continue betting and potentially bluffing while also keeping the strength of my hand in the unknown. This is counter to the fact that I raised on the flop but was my reasoning regardless. I now realize I should've been jamming to get value from all potential draws and other good reasons people have already listed.

Villain 2 raises to his standard 12 UTG+1, CO calls, Hero calls on BTN with AJ, SB folds, Villain 1 in BB calls.

Flop: J85 (Pot=$48)

V1 donks out 30, V2 calls, CO folds, Hero raises to 100, V1 takes a sec before calling, V2 tanks for a bit before folding.

Turn: J855 (Pot=$275)

V1 bets 65, Hero calls.

River : J8559 (Pot=$405)

V1 takes little time before going all in for ~170, Hero..?

Standard call or anyone wanting to fold?

I don't think you can fold this river when you're getting 3.4 to 1, and you still have TPTK.

But you really should have shipped the turn.

If you flatted to induce a jam on the river...

Going to see 88 a lot but can’t fold

When there's less than a PSB remaining *ON THE TURN,* you wanna just get that money in. Let him make bad calls with KX, KJ, 67.

There's really no upside to not shoving turn unless you think you've got him outkicked AND he's gonna call a 2x pot shove OTR when the flush draw misses, but even then I'd be looking to get money into the pot prior to the river.

I generally prefer to bluff catch rivers myself after value betting flops and turns rather than leaving stack depth behind and forcing someone else to bluff catch rivers versus me when obvious draws miss.

Take control of the hand and the size of the pot.

Pros for calling: pot odds, V1 image (have you seen him bluff river? does he look comfortable with the bet?)

Cons for calling: V1 called your raise, saw you come along the turn, knows you have a hand, yet still fire river. I'm gonna guess you called and he turns over 67. Cooler.

Have to pukecall this one because while we're certainly not good 23% of the time given the action, we clearly require some serious negative reinforcement for not shipping the turn in order to learn to play correctly next time.

I would go on the limb and say with this line,this board texture, how extremely rare it is for a 1-3 villain to fire riverbluffs like this after we raised the flop+ called a turn bet, and how the hand was played as a total i think we are very close to zero percent good on the river. Sure,we can give villain a 10 percent total spazz factor for good measure. We beat absolutely nothing at this point, no villains besides total maniacs is capable of taking this line we just a worse Jx.

Both straight draws got there on the river, (Q-10 gutshot and 6-7 open ender), trip 5 already beats us before the river obviously, and we have diamonds ourself so likelyhood of villain being on a flushdraw that he decides to empty the clip with in this manner is greatly reduced.

I think closing our eyes here and call off on the river is a fairly large mistake. Yes, we should have shipped the turn- but now we are here on the river, and we have to readjust to the new information that we have and forget about the turn mistake.

Calling river is not bad regardless if we aren't good here. 1/3 villains will show up with worse J's. People at 1/3 aren't folding our hand on the river. I love how every thread turns into V's being genius poker players who don't do stupid things. Irrelevant call at worst.

Yes it is bad of course if we rarely are good. Villain is shoving for little bit under half pot, 170 ish into 400 ish, so i mean this is not a ridic small shove in a 1-3 game. Villain needs to have a skyhigh bluff/spazz percentage for us to be good here at any frequenzy at all.

If you routinely make stubborn $170 calls when villain obviously have you beat a huge percentage of the time, then thats a classic leak you share with the majority of the countless (losing) players at 1-3 tables: they are calling too much.

I get why you feel this way, but that's just not how I look at it. I see it as "if cards are reversed, is he calling?" If the answer is yes, calling is at worst a neutral play long term. If he's occasionally just over valuing kj/qj, or ever has bluffs, calling is still profitable given that he's calling with your hand, regardless of whether or not you have proper pot odds to call vs a standard range. Of course again, this is all dependent on whether or not he's capable of folding AdJd.

For those of you claiming villain is near nutted with this line, you may want to read the previous hand I played with him and the overall read. Part of the reason I flatted the turn was to encourage him to keep betting and hopefully bluffing on the river. I don’t believe villain’s small bet on the turn and jam on the river always constitute an extremely strong hand. Only a hand like 88 or 85 probably takes this line, the rest of his holdings I’m not sure are as strong.

If river is such an easy slam dunk call, why are you wondering what to do on the river and asking for peoples opinion ITT?

Like if you have him pegged down as so spazzy/bluffy enough that AJ is a clear call on the river even with this line (where you raised the flop),nice hand and good read by you- if so you got exactly what you wanted to happen, wich again brings me to the question why you are interested in debating the river?

Also villain doesent need to be "near nutted" to beat 1 pair on the river on this runout. Its quite alot of hands that beat hero at this point, and we have one of the weakest hands we can have with just a lonely top pair when we arrive at the river in this fashion after raising the flop and facing a shove for stacks.

FWIW, in my playerpool and also my experience with the Las Vegas playerpool- i see people take this line all the time with strong hands.

Its a classic line to lead into the aggressor either when they binked trip 5 on the turn, or if they picked up some more equity in any sort of way.

I would expect to see trip 5, 6-7 or even Q-10 diamonds a healthy portion of the time here with this line lead turn ship river line.

Johnnybuz has some very good posts itt

I think your analysis is fair but you are underestimating the spazz factor, I'd juice it up slightly higher than 10% but really read-dependent.

Just from my own experience, I've generally been surprised by the number of times my "sigh call" has been good. Sometimes people show up with some random **** and you realize you've been ranging them completely wrong the entire time.

I hate these spots but think I end up in "sigh call" camp.

Fishsoup:i am open to the possibility that i underestimate the spazz factor- and it may differ regarding different populations as well/different playerpools.

Based on your read, it's an ez call.

Nevertheless, this spot is different than the previous. First of all, this is 3-handed and he lead into 2 opponents, including a relatively tight PFR. Secondly, he b/c a flop raise with the PFR behind.

The nutty part of his range (88/76s/55) can take this line. Perhaps, he's deceptively played QQ+? You chop 6 combos of AJ and beat most other JX combos.

I don’t believe river is such a slam dunk call, however I wanted to speak up because phrases like “0% chance of being good” were being thrown around. Surely with the history and read we could give this villain at least 10% pure spazz range.

I knew I messed up flatting turn and felt I was committing myself to calling off on river but wanted to hear other people’s thoughts. Seems the consensus is call it off here, not happily, and prefer to jam it in on the turn if the hand would play itself out again.

Thanks for the comments everyone. Results may be surprising for flat vs raise on flop crowd.

Results:

Results aren't surprising to me in the slightest. I think I speak fairly for the raise flop crowd when I say that we expected to be insanely far ahead of V1's range and are raising for pure value against him, and we knew V2's most likely holdings were overpairs (which he almost certainly had given his comment, unless he had the last two nines in the deck) that we could put serious heat on...and we were essentially indifferent as to whether V2 ended up folding that overpair.

FWIW, results oriented but V1's holding demonstrates why you need to jam turn. Sure he ended up bluffing it off on the river here anyway, but he's not going to do that every time, while he's never folding his draw OTT but is going to c/f the river some % of the time when he misses.

I don't think it's a mistake to flat turn at all, in fact that's what induced the river bluff. A solid villain can't call the turn shove with T9o anyway (see below).

As said before, it's not a value bet if we're so "insanely far ahead" of V1's range so he folds if we raise. It's like betting quads on the flop 'for value' on a dry flop. It's actually a 'missed-value' bet against bluffy villains due to folding out bluffs. We are purposely under-playing our bluff catcher to induce bets that we won't get had we played strongly.

Against bluffy villains, it's a mistake to raise early. How many times have we seen a disciplined ABC player wait patiently for AA against a bluff-tard, only to immediately raise flop big 'for value' and had villain snap-fold instead of letting bluff-tard bluff off the rest of his stack? Even bluff-tards know to fold when played back.

I don't think this is necessarily true. Him flatting a bluffy V1 isn't an overpair play with a drawy board and player behind unless V2's weak-tight. He can also have 76s.

Actually V1's holding can't call a turn shove (if he's playing math). He's getting 3-1 (65+275+170/170) on a <4.5-1 draw. In addition Qd and 7d are not clean outs for him - plus he maybe drawing dead against fullhouses already since board paired. Only a horribad villain would call here, and if that's the case we can just as much flat and let him bluff his missed draw. We are overestimating his turn calling frequency and underestimating river bluffs.

It's difficult to find an optimum line against this kind of villain, but deviating from 'standard' lines are often more profitable. Yeah sometimes he luckbox into a winning hand, but today's game winning a whole stack with just top pair is a rare opportunity and should be exploited when possible.

Look at V2's description again and then tell me if you think that player opens 76s. His range after the flop call is 99-AA.

And in LLSNL, when V1 donks the turn he isn't doing it to bet/fold. He's also not thinking about diamonds being dirty because he never puts Hero on diamonds. If he were worried about a full house he would not have donked. He would have called the turn jam 100% with the line he took.