Obviously we do better against their cbet range than their range that calls a raise or 3 bets the flop, that’s always going to be true. By that logic we shouldn’t raise middle set for value because it does better against their flop cbet range than their get it in range.

We are also absolutely ahead of their range that calls a raise on the flop which is going to consist of some overpairs, a lot of flush draws, and a lot of other jacks. We lose to a few combos of sets, that’s it, their ranges are so much wider than that.

Yea we aren’t doing great against their get it in range but that’s not what usually happens. Our strategy has to be built around his entire range, and not just his sets.

For the life of me I cannot imagine why people think V2 has sets when he GII here. Given read and PF action, V has one combo of JJ, 1-2 combos max of 88, and no combos of 55. That's three sets MAX.

Then, there are 15 combos of overpairs alone that V2 has (some of which he will fold to our raise, which is a fine result). Vs of this type will also certainly GII with their overpairs some % of the time even to this action, because they've waited three hours to get a dealt a big pocket pair and overpairs are the nutz, amirite?

And to answer your question, yes I am completely 100% comfortable GII for 200 bigs against an overpair here, since we're an equity favorite.

I do not like a 3! pre. The UTG+1 Range here is very strong, if this was a mid position open, then I think we could debate 3! the flop. V1 likely has a flush draw, possibly a combo draw. You dominate his flush draw, so Yeas I think 125-150 raise is appropriate. V2 likely has an over pair to the board.

I think you are applying some solid concepts, like the fact that there is often more reason to raise bpfd than tpfd, inflexibly.

It might or might not be a slam dunk but the main reason to adjust this thinking is that an already loose, tilting player has led the flop and is next to act. He could easly put in money w worse jacks, worse draws or worse than that and we are then effectively playing a huge splash pot with the other guy. And it's very unlikely the other guy has a nutty hand he can jam with while way ahead.

Your arguments would hold way more water if say, we had kd9d and the flop was KsQd8d.

Our exact hand is either flipping or a 52/48 equity advantage versus KK/QQ (his most likely holdings). If he wants to GII here with all of his overpairs then be my guest because our flop raise RANGE has him absolutely crushed. I am already spending my Galfond bucks making it rain with strippers and cocaine. If the worst hand in our flop raise range has >50% equity then we are doing something right. T9 has 52%. 76 has 54%. 97 has 54%. And of course our sets have 89%.

And if this villain is not actually as tight as we think, then we are going to free roll his AJ and force him to defend some of his KJ and TT type hands which is just printing money long-term.

^^^ this, and quite frankly given how deep we are and the smallish PF raise by V2, we could ostensibly be flatting J8s as well.

Amen to the bolded!

Triggered.

Anytime you want to stop with the "your game" / "my game" crap would be cool with me.

Look at the board texture, reread OP's read. We're never folding otf.

Then congrats on getting in your stack as a 2.5:1 dog against the old guy.

GimoG

GG, why is it you continue to harp on the fact that you think we'd get in in with V2 as a huge dog, but you never address the combinatorics that he has 3 combos max of sets, yet 15 combos of overpairs? (And if you say he won't GII with all 15 combos of overpairs, 1) that's debatable because older guys tend not to fold overpairs; and b) it doesn't matter because if he folds an overpair we're fine with that).

Playing to avoid three precise combos in a V's range is a great way to miss out on insane amounts of value that bolster a winrate. Hero's spot on this flop is a once-in-a-session type of opportunity.

But you're blinding yourself as to if the only value in this hand is by raising AA-QQ out of the hand. It's not. There is a bunch of value in letting lesser hands that are drawing almost dead (1-2 outs often) to see a turn and put in more money, and this range of hands is much wider than the 3 hands you're targeting.

Git'snotalandsidedecisioneitherway,imoG

Certainly agree, and just wanted to point out (doesent mean to slam in open doors) if we run below EV or even running very bad- this good of a spot may not even come up once during an 8-9 hour session. I often play long sessions of 8-10 hours, and flopping this pure in position does for sure not always happen even once a session- thats some food for thought i think.

My conclusion is the same as you: this is a such a high value spot that we just have to maximize and push our EV when those occur. As far as i can see we do that by raising,basically try and shovel in money with a monster hand and while we have heaps of equity.

Flatting is certainly also +EV, but not as much as raising. There is other possible factors that would make me lean towards a call- but none of those excist in the scenario discussed in this thread.

Well, at least we are getting a little closer here. I would argue / guess that flatting is more EV, but I certainly wouldn't stake my life on it (good luck computing the EV tree if you're attempting to compare, imo).

Raising is +EV. So is flatting. IMO, it's very unlikely that either of the plays is significantly better to the point where choosing the lesser one is a horrendous mistake (which I think some in this thread are making it out to be).

GcluelessEVcomputingnoobG

If the worst hand in your flop raising range has >50% equity then you're horribly imbalanced. You're folding a bunch of hands that could be profitable bluff-raises, but are too weak to call.

Flatting has nothing to do with MUBS for me. It's more that I think this hand prints money by seeing a turn against their current ranges than being worried about villains continuing to a raise. We get more value out of villain's ranges by calling and seeing a turn, and the only "bad" turns are the 6 offsuit K/Q, where even in that worst case scenario we'll be able to call a turn bet and realize our equity to the river.

OP explicitly stated that villain is NOT a nit, so we should stop assuming his range is overpairs right now.

I didn't see this post before and don't think it merits a response anyway, but since more than one person has asked the question, I'd rather raise hands like Td9d which have massive equity, but can't win unimproved, and hands like 6h5h, which are too weak to call, block monsters and have decent equity against continuing ranges.

I think you raise here only if you are willing to get most or all of your stack in on the flop and knowing that if you get re-raised you are behind and certainly behind at least one of the Villains if they both come along.

V1's lead out is a little perplexing as you would expect him to be moderately strong being able to lead OOP and into PF raiser who is perceived as TAG or TAGish. Best thing you're hoping for if not already beat is that V1 is leading with say 9T or 67 and is V2 capable of flatting with QQ+ in the middle in a multiway pot? If you raise as a squeeze-type play you may find yourself having to call off without a lot of additional EV+ outside the flush, whose draw odds may not be reduced...if i reduce my out count by one just one suspicion of V1 (yes I know it would be 2, but that's only if we are certain he is on same flush draw).

I prefer flatting the flop in position and closing the action gives me the more maneuver room with the ability to re-evaluate the turn and watch what each of them do.

BTW, line I hope for the least on turn is ck by V1, bet of ~half pot by V2 which inclines me to call and then have V1 CRAI - raising or shoving here doesn't tell me anything more and I don't know that I can get both to fold seeing as they each have lead one street. Now my hand has turned into a mostly pot-odds crying call which is not particularly how I prefer to get it all in.**

** Pot starts at $48 + $30x3 = $138 (Flop) and turn is perceived relative blank for all hands:

==> if V2 bets $70 on turn Hero's call and V1 CRAI,
==>==> if V2 only calls the raise, pot is offering $808 for $232 (3:1ish) - and V2 still has ~$200 left behind; regardless of the river I think I'm just about pot committed to call V2's last $200 if he fires.

==>==> if V2 RRAI, pot offers $1040 for $432 (slightly less than 2.5:1) where I can end up winning the ~$400 side pot, but V1 is pushed main pot of $1k - essentially puts me back where I started the turn and that's if I end up in second place this way.

I don't know that I have to put V2 specifically on JJ-AA; even in today's games, I do see some otherwise tight players willing to open raise KQs and AQo here, so if KQ is part of V2's range it makes his holding not so bad in his mind - 15 outs, but one of his over cards might not be good, i.e. does he perceive your BTN call range including KJ and QJ in position? If V2 puts those in your range its not a stretch to included JT, each combo having a slight advantage over these other possible V2 hands.

Flatting hands that are equity favorites but potentially behind villain's hand (like AJ) and spew raising with a hand that has 20-25% equity like 65 is backwards poker.

I'm not raising AJ because I think the action is going to go raise -> fold -> fold, I'm raising because this hand and my raising range here absolutely crush both villains and I want to get as much money in the pot as possible before any cards kill my action later in the hand.

There is no bad permutation. We raise, V1 calls, V2 folds a better hand with 50% equity. GREAT OUTCOME! We raise, V1 calls, V2 calls with an overpair. GREAT OUTCOME! We raise, V1 folds, V2 calls with a better or worse hand. PERFECTLY ACCEPTABLE OUTCOME! We raise, V1 calls, V2 ships, we call, V1 calls. YOLO! <- this will happen like 1% of the time

65 is a hand that benefits from seeing turns and rivers in position with large SPR's. I would be flatting 65 100% of the time on the flop because we have absolute position and the turn will be a highly dynamic card for our hand. 10 's give us a sneaky backdoor draw to win a monster pot with and a 6 gives us the best hand more often than not.

If you play draws aggressively, you tend to get paid off when you have made hands.

Good poker is to raise here for value and/or to fold out an overpair. If you get called, you can evaluate the turn and barrel or take a free card depending on a variety of conditions. If you get shipped on, you're never far behind and you might actually be ahead. You literally lose nothing by raising the flop.

This is the key, and frankly I'm struggling to understand how so many posters ITT do not grasp it. Literally nothing bad happens here when we raise.

And to anyone, not just GG but anyone, saying that if we raise and get jammed on that we're up against solely sets, no, you're wrong, I don't believe you, and if that does happen to be the case for you it's because you're a nut peddling nit so no one will jam on your raises ever without the mortal nuts.

I like to raise my draws in position so I can check back the turn when I miss and get a free card, plus you get lots of reads when you raise on how strong a player's hand is at live low-stakes, so you can get a good idea if you have any fold equity to make a turn semi-bluff. I think this hand is a slam dunk raise. V1 is donking with some sort of draw and V2 has QQ or KK at best.

Raise is certainly fine, but I don’t think there’s been enough consideration of how bad it is when we get dominated hands to fold. QJ or a lower FD might fold here, and that’s absolutely tragic because we can stack those hands on many run outs.

I flat.

Johnny pwning again. End thread/

Good post, but the permutation where both fold is not mentioned. I guess that's perfectly acceptable? Still not supporting a flat call, but let's be intellectually honest here...

Of course it is acceptable. We win the pot no?

Because I'm not expecting immediate folds from both villains on a board this wet with a meaningful frequency if we have the slightest hint of an aggro image.

And also...