Quote:
Originally Posted by Nogyong
Pre-flop: fold would be the best play.
3betting would be better if we had a tighter image (and a better hand!) but 3-betting to isolate the bad reg is okay. She is going to fold to a lot of cbets.
As played, I'm worred about the fish's flat-call of a 3bet preflop. Does that suggest JJ+? I think I just check it back and hope to hit trips or 2-pair.
If we bet 40 into 98 we need to be prepared to stack off to the fish in the SB for an additional 55.
If we think the fish's range for cold-calling the $35 is JJ+ then I like pre. However IME this is nowhere near their true range which is much wider.
You can probably use a bigger sizing with your whole range since she's capped and hands like 99 don't have to worry about isolating themselves against the upper part of her range.
Also, OP, you don't know that villain never has AQ+/TT+ here. She could mix these hands. Even if she never opens to $20 with KTo, she might sometimes open to $10 with AA, unless you've played a lot of hours with her without seeing her do it.
I would make a small c-bet here, like $25. We want to be able to b/f against the fish and try to get to showdown cheaply. If the fish calls we can check it down and fold to aggression. If the fish folds and the reg calls we can consider barreling favorable turns or checking and bluff-catching favorable turns+rivers. This combo is a good c-bet because it has SDV and has a hard time realizing it's equity by checking. It also has more equity against one pairs than hands like 66-88.
You're rarely going to get good advice from 2+2 when it comes to bluffing, except when you shouldn't be doing it, because that's usually the advice you're going to get. It's probably something you should study off of 2+2 to get good at.