1/3: Aces on four-spade board
Join Date: Jul 2016
Posts: 298
1/3, 6-handed
Villain (25yo Asian LAGtard, $900, 55/30, position-blind, very aggressive post-flop, showed several rebluffs/bluffraises without equity on flop; will pay off big hands) opens to $15
Hero on button ($420) 3-bets to $50 with Ad Ah
Villain calls
Flop ($104): Q94sss
Villain checks, Hero bets $75, Villain calls
Turn ($254): 2s
Villain checks, Hero checks
River ($254): 4h
Villain pushes all-in. What do you do?
Also what might you have done earlier?
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 25,855
On a pure random basis, he has about a 36% chance of having a spade. You're being offered less than 33% to call. Add in that he bet into you, you can also have a spade and likely a good one, this is a fold.
Join Date: Apr 2012
Posts: 6,237
River is a very ugly judgement call. This sort of villain will shove the river in this situation both for bluffing and value. Since he bet more then the pot and any spade beats you I favor a fold but wouldn't really complain if you tried to pick off a bluff.
Depending on how villain plays this could be a good situation for a turn bet of $125. Against some villains this can buy you a chance to check behind on the river. At the very least it will give you greater confidence his river shove is value after you represent a flush.
