1/3 game 500 max buyin

H(1200~): Been running fairly well and the table notices this, but have only shown good hands when i get to showdown.

V(900~): Seems to be a reg at this room, knows the dealers, dealers know him, knows a couple of other players as well, table changed here 10 mins ago never played a hand.

OTTH:
Whole table limps...
Hero(SB) looks down at AA
(Usually a raise to 15-20 when there is 1-2 limpers will thin the field, but in this spot i obviously need to go bigger)
Hero raises to 38 (Sizing ok?)
6 callers


Flop:
J 10 6


So my question is, do we take the usual bet/fold, bet/fold, bet/fold line here? Or will you check the flop and see what happens before making a decision?
Will add flop action later

Thanks for replies

Pre sizing is great, can't believe we got 6 calls here...

So the pot is about $230 already, super wet board, plenty of worse hands to get value from. The effective stacks/tendencies of other players kind of matters here but I am bet/evaluating the flop. ~$150ish sizing wise.

It's awkward that our flop bet has to be so large compared to our preflop sizing, but not much we can do when the pot get this bloated preflop.

the stack sizes of the other players range from 200 - 900 (V had biggest stack)

i thought the problem with betting the flop here is that we are committed to almost any action other than the big stack, and although people can shove a wide range here on this board do i really want to call with AA?

We are Defintiely committed vs some of the smaller stacks; that's just how it is and is not a bad thing on this board with aces.

Checking just lets 6 other hands realize their equity for free which is a disaster on a board this wet. We are only realistically behind JT, 66, and the occasional TT/JJ that limped while there are tons of Jx and draws to get value from

265 dead money in the middle and you are OOP. ugh. I would either check/call, check/raise, or check/fold. one of those three. but I don't like barrelling out into 6 opponents. lots of KQ's, JT's, xclubxclub hands out there where we are setting ourselves up to just get blasted off of this pot by a semibluff.

So, probably check/call and then reevaluate the turn. so if someone bets 125 on the flop. call. and if a turn bricks, bet 375. If someone set mined us, or has a funky two pair. ouch. but I just don't think we can get away from it with the dynamics of this hand.

6 callers. 7 players. it is 265.

I would bet 3/4 pot on the flop ($160).

Such a gross situation with this many players. You're also 300BB deep against what I assume will become the primary villain. I might just check to see what develops and see which stacks are in play at this point.

Alternatively, bet 150-200/fold (to a deep shove, but not necessarily a normal stack) seems like the standard line.

Grunch: You are out of position in a multi-way bloated pot on a coordinated board. Check/fold most bets. You may be folding best hand, but this is a very high variance spot which probably should be avoided.

I might check here because odds are very low that its going to check thru 6 more people, but fold to most bets? Not a chance. When I check, its to see who bets, who else is still in the hand when it gets back to me and what their stack sizes are. Im much more likely to check raise all in than to check/fold.....unless its a really deep stack that Im up against.

Flop action:

H checks, BB bets 45 (with a 200+ stack), V reraises to 225

Hero... folds?

Easy fold .. Well played preflop, just sucked that they all called


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AP fold looks good.

Lol. How can this v put you on AA when you check? Huge raise then check flop looks like AK. Also he bets so small he can obviously make this raise with AJ, KJ, QJ for value realizing 45 into 260 is a pathetic bet. The flop check is terrible, and now we have no idea and have to fold I think

Yeah, easy fold. Against 6 other players your aces are probably a dog against at least 1-2 of the hands.

I think on the flop I would have b/f. Bet would be about $150. I don't think you have to worry too much about how that type of bet relates to the pot too much at 1/3. Players at this limit are conscious of the actual amount. Anyone who called/raised your $150 probably has you drawing close to dead so you'd just give up after that.

If you get lucky and a few of them missed, and you get people facing a $150 bet with QK or with the nut flush draw but no pair, then they might drop out for that amount and you can take it down right there. I'm not sure if it's worth a shot though. Sometimes I'd just give up as you did. Depends on how easy the other players are laying down.

This is exactly why I check the flop in a spot like this so can see the action before it gets back to me. It really helps define their hand ranges before you are forced to make your decision. I wouldve folded this.

I hope they got to showdown so you know if a fold was correct or not.

Never folding as played.

Decision is whether to call or shove.

Leaning towards shoving.

~~~
Et même si ce n'est pas vrai. Il faut croire à l'histoire ancienne.

We are crushed by quite a few hands and are flipping with all the others we are ahead of at the moment. All the pair plus flush draw combos and straight/flush combos. There are no hands here that we are crushing.

I would fold this. I think GII here is pretty damn high variance for such neutral EV. It may even be -EV.

Maybe some of the math guys want to chime in

Some of the comments in this thread... Like, hope you get to see a showdown so you know if folding was correct? Are you even putting your opponent on a range? V is facing a $45 bet in a pot that's over $200. You don't think he can raise with an open ended straight draw? Because if he is, you can never fold.

Maybe he is raising with a draw, but it would pretty rare in a pot of this size. Most people would just call the $45 knowing hes getting good odds and even better implied odds. If he is raising with just a draw, more power to him. I'm not playing for 300-400BBs with one pair when its much more likely he has 2 pair or a set or a combo draw like KcQc or 9c8c.

Less than 1 SPR vs all Villains but 1....

We should only be checking the flop here to CRAI unless some crazy chit happens. A weak player putting out a feeler bet and a solid reg raising when after you have checked is not crazy enough IMO. I think this was just a case of overthinking or FPS.

As played, I ship it in and Villain likely has a difficult decision on his hands.

Ran it through Equilab and you are flipping vs the top of his calling range. Also need to consider that the guy who led likely has some of Villain's outs.

Board:

Equity Win Tie
MP3 50.32% 49.06% 1.26% AsAc
BU 49.68% 48.42% 1.26% TT+, 66, JTs, KcQc, KcTc, Kc9c, Qc9c, 9c8c, 9c7c, 8c7c, JTo

You think villain limped in preflop with TT+? Take TT-KK out and see what you get.

I think I agree with MikeStarr here. Against six other players, I check and evaluate. It completely matters who bets/calls/raises here. Also, what is V's position? Helps to range him if we know where he is sitting and how many players he raised into. (I highly doubt he has TT-KK, regardless.)

I can't say for sure because I don't know where deepstack V sits relative to hero but I kind of think...

I like betting flop at the largest size that the shortest stack can shove and still reopen the betting. That way the shorter stacks feel like they have to decide to go with their draws or not on the flop and we get to see if the deepstack has a set or a big draw because:

The deepstack can't just call a small bet multiway with a set since hero can easily have an over pair. V would rather get the pot heads up vs the other deepstack and win the whole of a massive pot than go multiway to the turn and have a flush or straight card freeze the deepstack action.

Therefore if the deep stack calls a short stack's shove he probably has a draw and hero can 3bet the flop. If deepstack calls the flop bet along with other calls then hero knows he faces multiple draws going to the turn and can bet big on blanks or x/f danger cards. If deepstack raises after one or more calls he has a set rather than a draw.

The only scenario where hero bets small on the flop and it is murky what deepstack has is if he raises hero before anyone else calls. Then villain can have a range including draws and sets.

This only works because I'm happy gii with all the shorter stacks because the size of the pot will cause them to make shoving errors with draws thinking they have fold equity vs our bet.

If you're going to check the flop I think you've basically already given up on the hand. Not saying that's necessarily a bad thing. If this is a loose/passive table and it somehow checks all the way around there are so many scare cards on the turn that you can just muck instead of check at that point.

If you check, outside of an EP villain making a 1/3 or 1/2 size bet with a short stack and it folds around to you, what else are you looking for to be comfortable to go forward with? If the flop bettor is a maniac in LP with 200BBs, are you really going to attack back or c/c the rest of the way after a decently coordinated flop with 6 people calling a $38 PFR?

If you choose to lay over and die, that's cool. Not even arguing that you shouldn't. If that's not your choice though, I think you have to place a pretty decent sized bet on the flop, at least $150-200, and hope that's enough to take it down.

Otherwise, just move on to the next hand imo. I don't think check/3b AA into a 7-way flop of JT6ss is going to get you too far in the long run. So many combos you're getting crushed by here (a few you're flipping with and have enough equity, but still...): JJ, TT, 66, KQ, Q9, 78, 89, 79