Hero: white 30s, regular at this daytime game. Aggressive image, known to steal lots of pots in position, high PFR%, attacks limpers, rarely 3! OOP. In small blind, stack 400$. Won a few hands on my 300$ buyin with no showdowns today.

V: Mid 40s, white, engineer, who has about 20hrs history with me. He's a world traveller, plenty of money, loves to play poker all over the world. Flew in from Dubai two weeks ago and has no return trip to Canada booked yet. He's a thinking player, aggressive, and frequently bluff shoves coordinated boards. Just sat down about 2 orbits ago with 400$. We exchanged pleasantries. We generally stay out of each other's way.

Hand:

V opens pot from UTG for 7$, one caller, Hero 3! to 16$ with AdAc. V calls, other folds.

Flop: Td9d6h

Hero leads for 20$ and he makes it 60$ total. Hero calls.

Turn: 7h

Hero leads for 100$ and he snap shoves.

Tank... I range him with overpairs, flush draws, straight draws, but not the diamond draw, as I have the blocker. I've got him ranged pretty close already and the turn doesn't seem to help. His PF 3! calling range is still the same. Still, he could definitely have a set, but I've never seen him set mine heads up.

Hero??

I'm folding here, as played. I really think this was misplayed in several spots:

First, the min-raise pre-flop, especially w/ one caller, does nothing to narrow V's range and especially OOP I want to charge more money pre-flop when I'm way ahead.

Second, after a bad flop for you and after you get raised on the flop (I'm not against the b/c on the flop), you decide to lead out $100. V tells you on the flop that he likes his hand and the turn is another bad card for you and you decide to lead out??? I understand V is loose aggressive but even by your own admission he generally stays out of your way.

Sure there are bluff's in V's range, but also a lot of value bets where you are so far behind.

The very first thing we should have done is taken the open seat in UTG when we realized this was the new player sitting down. Being almost immediately out of position to this guy, deepish, is really going to ruin our night.

I would just flat the open, although a large part of that might have to do with my much nittier image. I think the problem with 3betting, especially with a nitty image (which admittedly you don't have) is that it might turn our hand face up, OOP, to a villain who has a clue, in a difficult SPR pot. In the end, I can't believe we're playing in a 3bet pot for only $16 each at a 1/3 NL table (I mean, a $16 open in itself is typically on the small-medium side, but a 3bet?). Or was our smallish 3bet trying to induce a spazzy 4bet, like we know he's just opening a mediocre hand, and he knows that we know that, so obviously we're 3betting light (although a minraise?), so now we're hoping he spazzes? Still, I'd rather just call, we're already narrowed down to 3way, in what would be a large SPR 20 pot. And we could then just enter bluffcatching mode versus this guy and win a mediocre pot. Otherwise, I would 3bet large so that I can just stack off postflop, but for me this usually means like 3betting to $65 and I just don't think we're going to get that much action with a bet that big.

Kinda tough postflop now. The SPR is ~11, so against straightfoward opponents we could probably bet/fold each street for 1/2 PSB without committing ourselves. But this guy ain't a straightfoward opponent, plus this flop could kinda smash little juicer raises he is making preflop. I'm kinda cool in handing over the reigns to an aggro opponent here (although I wish the pot was smaller to begin with). If we're betting, I just think we still have to bet/fold cuz things are not going to get any easier on later streets where we'll now be playing for stacks.

I think the problem I have with this whole hand is we knew this was the exact uncomfortable situation we were going to get ourselves into, and yet we just kinda stubbornly walked head first into it anyways, and now we're wondering what to do.

GimoG

snap fold
lead on turn is burning money,
i make it 40 pre
this hand is a mess IMO

Described villain can open any connected straightening cards for 7 pre this is usually a sign of a weaker hand and for 9 more atc are calling. If you are going to make it 16 pre i just flat, but would never make either play. 35+ pre

Calling pre flop might even be better than raising to 16$, raise to at least 25 imo and set up a much better SPR for yourself

V also did something he never does when he makes a bet like this, he reclined in his chair and took a very relaxed pose. He's generally stone cold motionless in spots like this.

GMr1/3G has spoken ..fwiw your 1000 hr thread changed my game and winrate ty

Even $25 is problematic. Villain would be getting implied odds of 22+ to stack us, in position. And yet we'll create an SPR pot of 7.5, which will be difficult to play OOP (where we'll somehow need to pot control versus this guy).

The one good thing we do have going for us is an aggro image, so if I had that I'd make it $65 and then hand is easy (i.e. we're committed postflop).

But without an aggro image, I think flatting is the only way to go here.

GimoG

Ha, good thing I haven't updated that thread over my last 150 hours, you wouldn't be nearly as impressed.

Strong body language + shoving when he believes you are committed = trouble. Board is too wet for him to slowplay his strong hands on the flop. Everything you have done screams big PP. Everything he has done screams mid to small set. (You gave him ample odds to set mine.)

I think one could squeak out a fold here despite having already sunk close to half a stack. He isn't putting much energy into hiding body language b/c he thinks it is a done deal.

BTW, why donk the turn? Why not re-raise the flop if that was your read? How do you think V read your flop bet/call and turn donk?

My rationale by the turn donk was to see if he was completely committed to the flop bluff, I guess I had to call after that, committing myself with the bet.

Well, the reclining move was the nail in the coffin. Something felt wrong to me. Sounds cheesy, but could have been one of those "act strong when weak" tells.

I called, flipped my aces, river falls a black 7 and he turbo mucks. I didn't ask to see it, as since he's leaving tomorrow, I let it go. My guess was maybe maybe QQ or KK, but most likely a busted draw, as I posited before, that he thought he could bluff me off my obvious overpair. Could have even been T9 and the river counterfeited him when sevens paired, quite plausible. Would have played out the same way any way it went.

I'd flat pre. I don't do it a lot with AA but this is the spot for it. Stacks make it awkward to get ai on any flop and we're oop. Flatting underreps our hand, which against this V is actually worth it. And when a flop from hell hits we can get away from it cheap: one of those "fold and don't tell anyone" hands.

So I'd call pre, c/c otf, c/c ott and then see what hits otr. I don't think a lot of 8x is in his range.

That 3-bet size is terrible. 3 bet to $25 at least.

Flop is a natural bet/fold.

If he has QQ/KK, I would expect a 4-bet preflop. JJ would be suicidal to raise this flop. You have the A in your hand so he can't be bluffing with nut flush draw. At worst, his flush draw has 11 outs vs you

KQ = 11 outs (8 diamonds + 3 Jacks)
KJ = 11 outs (8 diamonds + 3 Queens)
QJ = 14 outs (8 diamonds + 3 Kings + 3 Eights)
86 = 16 outs (8 diamonds + 3 7s + 3 8s + 2 6s)


Board: Td 9d 6h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 19.346% 18.79% 00.56% 7254 215.50 { AcAd }
Hand 1: 80.654% 80.10% 00.56% 30925 215.50 { TT-99, 66, KdQd, KdJd, QdJd, T9s, 87s, 8d6d, 7d6d, T9o, 87o }

I don't hate a c/c line, but usually bet/fold is the line one should take vs most 1/3 opponents