Hero raises to $15 UTG with AsAc, MP calls, V (SB) calls

Flop ($49): KsJs9d
V checks, Hero bets $45, MP folds, V shoves $185, Hero ?

I would generally just fold this but... V is pretty loose/cally pre, generally mubsy of H as H stacked him multiple times before, however he lost his stack on the last hand where his QQ ran into AA, so I'm not sure if he's just tilted and doing this with worse. I've also shown him a couple of bluffs in the past and got him to call me down with TPNK for a $700+ pot when I had the nuts.

BTN?

This spot is like 50:50 if I had to guess.

Dripping wet board, v is just as likely to play this way with KQ KT AK or spades as he is with KJ K9 QT. You block the nut spades but still,

I think you're good often enough to call here.

I guess due to meta game between you and villain I call it off since you block some flush draws and have backdoor's to the nuts. This is gonna be KJ or QT a lot though and I'm not liking it.

What's the reason for betting 45 into 49?

Snap call, not deep enough to fold after putting in 1/3 of effective stacks. Flop bet is good on super wet board.

No way you can fold this, as well as the FDs I'd expect to see stuff like JT sometimes from a tilted villain. Obviously it's not a fist pump, pop bottles spot, but you can't fold.

You block a lot of the nut flush draw hands that we would want him to have here. Also, because the board is K J 9 there aren't pair+open-ender combos that we would also hope for villain to have (these hands seem to be much easier c/r semibluffs than pair+gutshots for similar villains). So it becomes a question of whether KQ, QJ, J10, or K10 are in his range, which given your description very well could be. Add that to the random low flush draws he can have given his loose preflop tendencies, and the fact we block one of those outs, and this becomes a really close spot. We are getting exactly 2:1, but I'm folding because I think the stronger made hands in his range are more heavily weighted.

Depending on average stack sizes, wish we had raised just a smidge more preflop to make the postflop stack off just that much easier.

But even as played, I still get it in here. Villain called off a rather larger 7.5% of his stack preflop (he's unlikely to outflop us enough to make this profitable even if we get it in every time he does), we have a bluffy image, he might be tilting, Kx could easily think they are nuttish, the board is drawy (he might have one), and against some hands we are behind we have outs (such as vs KJ). Facing the check/raise does suck, but I still think we have to grit out teeth here and call in this situation.

GcluelessNLnoobG

What would you bet?

SPR is ~4ish against Villain (unclear what it is against other guy, let's assume the same). Board is very wet. I also ~PSB the flop to setup a turn shove. I might even go a little more on this flop just for that extra value, say $55, but $45 is definitely in the same ballpark.

GcluelesssizingnoobG

Mostly this ^^^ except it's tough to find a fold here getting 2:1 even though we block the NFDs he's going to have at least a few FDs along with QTs 99 and pretty much all the 2ps. We will have less than the needed 33% equity. Having the As blocker and the K on board being a spade is what tips this closer to a fold.

But If he ever does this with a naked KQ (optimistic imo) or occasional goofey spazz you're going to be more like 40%. Realistically it's prob slightly -EV stack off but not by much. We haz AA and it's 1/2 after all.



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Qt spades and your having to dodge half the deck is best case scenario.



Edit: sorry I misread the board not sure what we are hoping to beat beasides qx spades


Maybe aq ♠️

Okay, so I called.

V flipped over 43. Rest is history.

Nice hand, imo.

GcluelessNLnoobG

No not AQss

Pre-flop/flop are fine. PSB is good on this board texture where villain has loads of hands with equity which find a call easily.

It sucks to get raised here, but I call now. I'm not a fan of folding AA here when the board is wet and offers a lot of draws against a possibly tilted villain.

Nh, good call

I wish.

In this case, we got in 7.5% of our stack as a ~80% fave and the remaining 92.5% of our stack as a ~70% fave.

Ghighfivesallaround,imoG

Sklansky Bucks tho

Chuck results, but going back to flop sizing... I understand it's correct to PSB against such villains who don't have a fold button, but against opponents who will check/fold something like Kx here and only call with better, are we still betting PSB on the flop?

Who folds top pair on the flop? Nobody.

Just saw a fish mucking Kx on a K hi board in a 5-way $20 raised pot when another player bet $100 into $100.

That seems different.

All depends on how drawy the board is and how committed we feel, imo. Here the board is very drawy and we should feel 100% committed with an SPR of just ~4 in just a 3way pot, so we should be attempting to get things done by the turn. If the board was a lot less drawy / we felt a lot less committed, then different sizing to draw things out to the river would be fine.

GimoG

Being in for just $15, I'm not sure how we're so committed with $185 behind in a $45 pot before betting the flop?

I know the board is super wet, but if players are playing straight-forward/passive, and I think only better hands continue vs bigger bets but worse hands call slightly smaller bets, is it still prudent to just bomb these boards everytime?

Here's an example: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UTyQ...AE132HywfN1vrt