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Old 08-24-2015, 06:23 PM   #1
businessdude
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1/3 A5 from the blind

Loose table preflop. V1 a MAWG kind of new to the table, and not as loose as other players and not afraid to bet big when he thinks he's good.

Effective stack 300 with V1.

Hero, who has been very active in betting and raising, has A 5 in the BB.

5 limpers and hero checks.

Flop ($14) : A A T

Hero checks knowing there's at least one player (effective stack 600) who constantly take stabs at pot with a T for sure here, maybe pairs, or even K high. May even get married to a T.

Sure enough, this guy bets 10, another 10 called, then V1 on the button makes it 35. Hero's plan?
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Old 08-24-2015, 06:25 PM   #2
JackInDaCrak
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Re: 1/3 A5 from the blind

MAWG thinks he's good so you fold. Either that or call and bink a 5 on the turn.
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Old 08-24-2015, 06:36 PM   #3
QuadJ
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Re: 1/3 A5 from the blind

Fold now, save your money. Given this action somebody has you beat well over half the time.
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Old 08-24-2015, 07:31 PM   #4
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Re: 1/3 A5 from the blind

Yes, given description of v, it's a fold.
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Old 08-24-2015, 08:03 PM   #5
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Re: 1/3 A5 from the blind

Ok, V was on the button and new, so wanted to see if anyone voted to peel.
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Old 08-24-2015, 09:32 PM   #6
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Re: 1/3 A5 from the blind

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Originally Posted by businessdude View Post
Ok, V was on the button and new, so wanted to see if anyone voted to peel.
If it with the guy you thought was going to take a stab, then yes, it's an easy peel. Against a V with unknown tendencies, got to give him credit until you see proof to the contrary.
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Old 08-25-2015, 04:14 AM   #7
eldiesel
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Re: 1/3 A5 from the blind

All broadway gutters call, hearts call, Tx calls, and the better Ax hands are discounted because of the pf limps so the other Ax hands out there (only one A left in the deck anyway) will probably end up chopping. I'd just lead.
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Old 08-25-2015, 04:23 AM   #8
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Re: 1/3 A5 from the blind

is leading awful? I mean it totally looks like a blocker bet and if MAWG raised with a weak A also-that beats yours he may slow down, gibing free card on turn
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Old 08-25-2015, 08:03 AM   #9
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Re: 1/3 A5 from the blind

Leading isn't terrible. Normally it would be an OK play but in this hand not leading saved hero some money. There is a reasonable chance hero is chopping this in the end because good aces have to be discounted. Calling down big bets just to chop the pot is terrible though and this pot looks to be getting expensive fast.
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Old 08-25-2015, 10:39 AM   #10
JamesFrancis
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Re: 1/3 A5 from the blind

Odds are extremely good that either the initial raiser ($10) or the reraiser ($35) have an ace. If the reraiser doesn't have an ace, he's making the wrong play, unless he happens to have TT.

So, with A5, fold.

You could sort of make an argument, if you really wanted to, that you could call with A6.

Let's make the following assumptions:
1 -- no one has TT.
2 -- AJ+ would have raised pre, so you can eliminate them.
3 -- preflop, villains are limping w/any Ace.

With these assumptions, A6 is beat by four aces (A w/789T) and beats four aces (A w/2345). Given that money is already on the table, AT is discounted because a T is on the board, and the possibility of a chop ... A6 ... might be a call.
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Old 08-25-2015, 11:46 AM   #11
SpexDome
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Re: 1/3 A5 from the blind

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Odds are extremely good that either the initial raiser ($10) or the reraiser ($35) have an ace. If the reraiser doesn't have an ace, he's making the wrong play, unless he happens to have TT.

Why is it the wrong play? We're about to fold A5?

So, with A5, fold.

You could sort of make an argument, if you really wanted to, that you could call with A6.

No you can't, and I don't think anyone really wants to

Let's make the following assumptions:
1 -- no one has TT. Why?
2 -- AJ+ would have raised pre, so you can eliminate them. AJ and AQ will be in play some non-zero percent of the time.
3 -- preflop, villains are limping w/any Ace. Sure

With these assumptions, A6 is beat by four aces (A w/789T) and beats four aces (A w/2345). It doesn't beat those four aces, it beats them sometimes, but chops the vast majority if the time.

So half the time we're dominated, the other half the time we're chopping ($0 EV). There are no positive numbers in this equation.


Given that money is already on the table, AT is discounted because a T is on the board, and the possibility of a chop ... A6 ... might be a call.
This hand is an EV black hole dude. Don't over think it, just try to stay as far away from its gravity as possible.
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Old 08-25-2015, 12:20 PM   #12
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Re: 1/3 A5 from the blind

SPR is a huge 21 on the flop, so lots of room to move.

The board is a bit drawy (gutshots, flush draw), so my initial plan would probably be to just bet/bet/bet, probably not more than 3/4 PSB on each street, and I'd fold to any raise. I might change that plan if I get HU against a known bluffer (where I might then check / call down, but it would depend what position he was in when calling the flop bet).

As played against this action, I would probably just fold and move on.

GcluelessNLnoobG
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Old 08-25-2015, 01:51 PM   #13
JamesFrancis
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Re: 1/3 A5 from the blind

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Originally Posted by SpexDome View Post
This hand is an EV black hole dude. Don't over think it, just try to stay as far away from its gravity as possible.
Yeah, I totally was a bonehead about how likely a chop is. I was having a doofus moment there.

I should have clarified my broader point. Since A5 is a fold, how good would your kicker have to be to call? Even with the most overwhelmingly optimistic assumptions and ignoring how likely a chop is, A6 is not a call either, unless you really try hard to talk yourself into it.

A8? A9?
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Old 08-25-2015, 02:40 PM   #14
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Re: 1/3 A5 from the blind

Given the action? I probably would want AJ here before seeing the turn. The problem with this hand is that hero may be dodging hearts and whatever boats up the other ace, and will be chopping some of the time even if none of that hits. Getting into an expensive hand in that situation is -EV.

Hero is OOP and only has $2 invested so far. Given the bet/call/raise action hero needs a pretty strong hand to be confident enough of winning for continuing to be +EV.
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