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1/3: 99 on BTN, line check 1/3: 99 on BTN, line check

02-05-2014 , 10:22 PM
7 handed, 99 on BTN

UTG ($400, young raisy guy who made it $14 from BB with 44 after I wrongly limped 67hh on BTN) makes it $12,

CO ($800, decent laggy stationy reg capable of moves) calls behind,

Hero ($500) calls

SB ($45, shortstack fish) shoves all in

UTG calls, CO folds, Hero calls


Flop ($135): Js 7s 4d
UTG bets $40, Hero folds


UTG flips over KJcc, Fish flips over AKhh, river was a 9


1) Should Hero 3bet preflop?

2) Should Hero isolate preflop after SB shoves? I thought of doing that but was afraid UTG wouldn't put me on a big hand since I just called his initial raise before SB shoved.
1/3: 99 on BTN, line check Quote
02-06-2014 , 12:10 PM
Next time, don't include any action (or hands) after the point of decision. Including the Villains hands is really going to taint responses.

My initial reaction before I read down to Villain's cards is probably 3betting preflop (after the shortstackers shove; I'm rather cool with just flatting the initial raise preflop, but that's passive me, although I certainly don't hate a 3bet against a wide opener + caller). We're totally cool with getting it HU with dead money vs the shortstacker shove. The only question is whether UTG could be tricky enough to just flat the shortstacker's shove with a big hand. But given that he is raisey, and just rather weakly called with two other potential callers behind him (but again, is he trapping?), I would probably 3bet to try to iso the shortstack all-in.

I like postflop, as I just think it's rare that someone is bluffing in a protected pot.

GcluelessNLnoobG
1/3: 99 on BTN, line check Quote
02-06-2014 , 02:36 PM
Calling the UTG raise is fine. After the shorty shoves, and UTG flats, this is a fist-pump ALL IN to isolate and flip for lots of dead money.
1/3: 99 on BTN, line check Quote
02-06-2014 , 02:39 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by fizzypants

2) Should Hero isolate preflop after SB shoves? I thought of doing that but was afraid UTG wouldn't put me on a big hand since I just called his initial raise before SB shoved.
You're thinking about this incorrectly. It doesn't matter what UTG thinks about our range. It doesn't matter if he won't put us on a "big hand." He's never folding anything that beats us anyways (He's calling with TT+).

Our play is +EV, regardless of whether or not UTG calls.

We're shoving because we think UTG almost never has us crushed. Worst case scenario, he flips over AQ and we race in a +EV situation.

It's important to note what an amazing price we're getting on our shove, given all the dead money. After UTG folds (and he usually will fold), we're risking $37 to win $151 !!!!!!

That's 24.5% pot odds. Even if shorty flips over AA, our play is only marginally -EV (we're about 19% to suck out). If he flips over anything other than an overpair, we've just made a hugely +EV play.

Last edited by DaYu; 02-06-2014 at 02:47 PM.
1/3: 99 on BTN, line check Quote
02-06-2014 , 02:48 PM
Ez shove with dead money involved after shorty shoves.
1/3: 99 on BTN, line check Quote
02-06-2014 , 04:42 PM
nobody else is calling the flop?

re-shoving the nines seems kinda risky/high variance
1/3: 99 on BTN, line check Quote
02-06-2014 , 04:57 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DaYu
You're thinking about this incorrectly. It doesn't matter what UTG thinks about our range. It doesn't matter if he won't put us on a "big hand." He's never folding anything that beats us anyways (He's calling with TT+).

Our play is +EV, regardless of whether or not UTG calls.

We're shoving because we think UTG almost never has us crushed. Worst case scenario, he flips over AQ and we race in a +EV situation.

It's important to note what an amazing price we're getting on our shove, given all the dead money. After UTG folds (and he usually will fold), we're risking $37 to win $151 !!!!!!

That's 24.5% pot odds. Even if shorty flips over AA, our play is only marginally -EV (we're about 19% to suck out). If he flips over anything other than an overpair, we've just made a hugely +EV play.
The problem here isn't whether H gets great equity AFTER everyone folds (which is a given duh), the main point of concern here is putting UTG on a range and deciding whether hes going to call your shove, and if he does, how likely you are to be ahead or at least getting good equity. This is the weak point in your analysis. We simply dont have enough information to say he's likely to fold and hence we should shove in ordee to get great odds to flip.

First, he called an all in with players behind. The action has been reopened and hes not going to spew like this with suited connectors, or many pocket pairs you can beat.

Second, if you shove over that, you are making it obviously like a squeeze play. 99 is actually at the top of that squeezing range, why would you play TT-AA in any way that you did?

For me as played, i would fold > 3bet (short of shoving) > shove > call.
1/3: 99 on BTN, line check Quote
02-06-2014 , 04:59 PM
you played this fine
1/3: 99 on BTN, line check Quote

      
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