Quote:
Originally Posted by DaYu
You're thinking about this incorrectly. It doesn't matter what UTG thinks about our range. It doesn't matter if he won't put us on a "big hand." He's never folding anything that beats us anyways (He's calling with TT+).
Our play is +EV, regardless of whether or not UTG calls.
We're shoving because we think UTG almost never has us crushed. Worst case scenario, he flips over AQ and we race in a +EV situation.
It's important to note what an amazing price we're getting on our shove, given all the dead money. After UTG folds (and he usually will fold), we're risking $37 to win $151 !!!!!!
That's 24.5% pot odds. Even if shorty flips over AA, our play is only marginally -EV (we're about 19% to suck out). If he flips over anything other than an overpair, we've just made a hugely +EV play.
The problem here isn't whether H gets great equity AFTER everyone folds (which is a given duh), the main point of concern here is putting UTG on a range and deciding whether hes going to call your shove, and if he does, how likely you are to be ahead or at least getting good equity. This is the weak point in your analysis. We simply dont have enough information to say he's likely to fold and hence we should shove in ordee to get great odds to flip.
First, he called an all in with players behind. The action has been reopened and hes not going to spew like this with suited connectors, or many pocket pairs you can beat.
Second, if you shove over that, you are making it obviously like a squeeze play. 99 is actually at the top of that squeezing range, why would you play TT-AA in any way that you did?
For me as played, i would fold > 3bet (short of shoving) > shove > call.