Horseshoe Tunica
$1-3 NLHE

$145 effective (48x bb: Hero $145, MP2 $225, HJ $190)

Reads:
MP2 is a white woman in some cowboy-like-hat. I've only seen her play a couple of hands -- she came in while I was at dinner -- but she strikes me as perhaps more aggro than most female players.
HJ is a middle-aged black man whose play so far has struck me as fairly straightforward.
Both blinds seem pretty straightforward; the only time I've seen SB raise from the blinds was a ridiculously large raise from the BB with JJ.

Table image: Tight as usual, but I just got back so everyone may have forgotten how I play, not care, etc.

Preflop
Hero on button with 7 6

EP, MP2, HJ, and Hero limp; SB completes; BB checks.

Thin overlimp at these stacks, really, but getting 50:1 stack odds, in a huge mutiway pot without a lot of aggro raising from the blinds, it might be OK. I'm trying to open up my game and show up with surprising hands at showdown to confuse the regs. If it's wrong, not a huge mistake, but perhaps has potential to be a compounding one?

Flop ($17 net of rake, BBJ, and tip -- $142 behind)
952
MP2 bets $10, HJ calls, Hero ???

A gutshot is about 10:1, I'm only calling 1/14 my stack, I'm getting better than 3:1 immediate, and the board is rainbow so my draw is to the nuts. Significantly, a turned four will give me an OESD to the nuts. But can I win stacks a significant percentage of the time if I hit?

I'm not sure if I misread your post or not, but to call 10 dollars into a 17 dollar pot does not seem like a good idea. Your implied odds on this one seem more like an excuse in your head to make a call you shouldn't be making. You don't know if you are guaranteed a double up here if you even hit. You know you have a guy who plays pretty decent poker and a woman you think is over agressive with a hat. Throw it away, a gutshot isn't worth your time, wait til you have more outs and can make a bet at a higher profit. Why press for something that isn't already a profit and not knowing whether or not it will be?

you know i don't think this is good enough situation to draw to a gutter there aren't enough hands on deck and this isn't a good enough flop coz what pays off when you hit?

I do not miind the overcall at all it is exactly the type of hand that is good to overcall here, if the flop had come somethin like 95K I think it would be a good spot to try and hit the gutter but 952, ojnly if you think someone has a set

anyway just try and soul read the thing coz you are only 10:1 to hit but you can get that a lot of the time on implied odds so you should be thinking solely about your implied odds on the flop...only call if you think someone before you is strong like might have a set, even overpairs rly don't pay off that well vs some nits

Pf is good. It is a limped pot. You have the button. 76o isn't going to get you in much trouble.

However, the flop is a fold. It is really hard to get stacks in a limped pf pot. You're really hoping someone has 22 or 55 (99 would have raised) and can play. There's about a 3.5% chance of that.

Ur ~10-1 to make ur hand on the turn, u are being offered ~3.5-1, u'll have $132 behind after u call, the pot will $47 and u have a 'nutshot' straight shot. U need to be able to extract another $65 on the next two streets (if u make ur hand.) Hey, why not? Then again, what pays u off if u hit? Do what u want, it's not a big mistake either way.

Fold > Raise > Call.

And fold pre.

IO works best against very strong ranges because if they don't have a hand to get it in with you're not going to get paid often enough to make money.

Preflop limp and 1/2 pot bet on a dry board doesn't impress me that this is someone ready to stack off.

Unless he's a giant rock and this is sets-only.

And in that case, even if you hit your 10.5:1 shot you still only have 77% equity, so I don't see how its possible for a call here to be +EV.

Fold.

+1

Live players are notorious for offering favorable odds for draws. This is not on of those situations. Move on to the next hand

Not that it matters, because you've convinced me that I misplayed the hand. But here's the result....

Call preflop is absolutely fine. I am _never_ folding this to limps preflop.* Fold flop.

* If you want to open up more, raise it preflop--you have the button, and the button = power. That will also drastically change the flop decision--in this case, it would just cost you more money, but if the flop cam, I dunno, A83, you could easily take 22 off his hand.