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 03-13-2018, 05:56 PM #26 johnnyBuz Pooh-Bah     Join Date: Sep 2013 Location: Beast Coast Posts: 4,510 Re: 1/3 ~\$500 Deep - KK in 3bet pot - PAHWM It would be a pretty good exercise for you to see how much value you lose by x turn.
03-13-2018, 06:15 PM   #27
gobbledygeek
Poet Laureate of LLSNL

Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 25,638
Re: 1/3 ~\$500 Deep - KK in 3bet pot - PAHWM

Quote:
 Originally Posted by johnnyBuz It would be a pretty good exercise for you to see how much value you lose by x turn.
If no one takes a shot at this tonight I might tomorrow. Although sometimes these are difficult to do since a lot depends on numbers we pull out of our asses (regarding how much he bluffs when we check behind, what he does when hitting one pair, how often he calls the turn with a draw on a paired board or an underpair, etc.). My overall guess is that we don't lose nearly as much as you think we do (and it may actually turn out to be the most profitable play).

GcluelessEVcomputingnoobG

 03-13-2018, 06:21 PM #28 johnnyBuz Pooh-Bah     Join Date: Sep 2013 Location: Beast Coast Posts: 4,510 Re: 1/3 ~\$500 Deep - KK in 3bet pot - PAHWM I feel reasonably certain x KK on a Q929 turn in 3! pot where we block zero combos of AQ and villain previously stacked off with QJ is not going to be the most profitable line. The river value bet is the most important bet there is and it’s predicated on geometrically increasing the size of the pot on the turn to maximize value on the river. The goal should be to stack AQ with three streets of betting while getting two streets of value from JT. Worrying about possibly inducing bluffs or extracting a tiny bet out of 88 is pretty silly when the obvious value is staring us in the face.
 03-13-2018, 07:30 PM #29 BackDoorFlush old hand   Join Date: Nov 2013 Posts: 1,901 Re: 1/3 ~\$500 Deep - KK in 3bet pot - PAHWM Checking back the turn is a big mistake. There is also a non-zero percent chance that V spazz shoves the turn when we bet half pot.
 03-14-2018, 11:14 AM #30 gobbledygeek Poet Laureate of LLSNL     Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 25,638 Re: 1/3 ~\$500 Deep - KK in 3bet pot - PAHWM Was going to attempt an EV breakdown, even for particular hands (like Qx vs JT and gutshots vs underpairs vs etc.) but I think overall it becomes very difficult very quickly due to assumptions we have to make. If anyone wants to take a shot at it, go for it. It really depends on lots of factors, like: - what does he do with JT on the turn on the river? if he always folds JT on a turn bet and yet will bluff the river a lot UI if we check (or payoff a bet / blocking bet when hitting a J/T), then you're likely better checking against JT; if he's going to pay off another bet on the turn or never bluff the river UI / payoff a bet with just a J/T, then you're better off betting against JT; another thing to keep in mind with JT is 2 of his 8 "outs" give him a straight while giving us a boat - what does he do with gutshots/etc?; this is very similar to JT - how often does he spazz against weak turn bets; if he's going to spazz a decent amount of the time, then betting is better - against Qx you're likely better betting it; he's rarely folding, but there can be some river scare cards that could prevent stacks from getting in - against underpairs you're likely better checking it; he's on a ~2 outer and meanwhile might pay off another bet / turn his hand into a bluff if we weakly check the turn Overall, I don't hate a turn check because it would be my guess that he folds JT / gutshots most of the time on a turn bet (if this assumption is wrong, then checking is bad), and meanwhile we'll still get in stacks most of the time against Qx (although admittedly we risk scare cards to kill our action sometimes which obviously ain't ideal). GcluelessEVcomputingnoobG
03-14-2018, 12:18 PM   #31
Spammysr
enthusiast

Join Date: Jul 2011
Posts: 75
Re: 1/3 ~\$500 Deep - KK in 3bet pot - PAHWM

Quote:
 Originally Posted by gobbledygeek - what does he do with JT on the turn on the river? if he always folds JT on a turn bet and yet will bluff the river a lot UI if we check (or payoff a bet / blocking bet when hitting a J/T)I think this does happen a lot if he's going to pay off another bet on the turn or never bluff the river UI / payoff a bet with just a J/T, then you're better off betting against JT; another thing to keep in mind with JT is 2 of his 8 "outs" give him a straight while giving us a boat We all know those type of opponents who will bet a high % of time when I check the turn here right? He's one of those guys imo - what does he do with gutshots/etc?; this is very similar to JT Bluffs a high % of time imo - how often does he spazz against weak turn bets; if he's going to spazz a decent amount of the time, then betting is better Agreed, i think a spazz is possible, not likely. I think a bet of lets say \$80-85 could induce a spazz, but a \$100 bet might make him fold or maybe call, check river. which makes checking better - against Qx you're likely better betting it; he's rarely folding, but there can be some river scare cards that could prevent stacks from getting in Agreed - against underpairs you're likely better checking it; he's on a ~2 outer and meanwhile might pay off another bet / turn his hand into a bluff if we weakly check the turn Exactly Overall, I don't hate a turn check because it would be my guess that he folds JT / gutshots most of the time on a turn bet I think you're correct (if this assumption is wrong, then checking is bad), and meanwhile we'll still get in stacks most of the time against Qx (although admittedly we risk scare cards to kill our action sometimes which obviously ain't ideal). GcluelessEVcomputingnoobG
There just has to be way more combos of KJ, K10, J10, J8, than AQ, KQ, QJ. Plus A10, AJ, low pocket pairs that he bluffs river with vs doesn't call turn bet.

 03-14-2018, 12:45 PM #32 gobbledygeek Poet Laureate of LLSNL     Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 25,638 Re: 1/3 ~\$500 Deep - KK in 3bet pot - PAHWM Also, regarding spazz, he's seen us 3bet preflop and then double barrel; I just don't think we see a lot of spazz here against this massive show of strength. GcluelessspazznoobG
 03-14-2018, 01:30 PM #33 johnnyBuz Pooh-Bah     Join Date: Sep 2013 Location: Beast Coast Posts: 4,510 Re: 1/3 ~\$500 Deep - KK in 3bet pot - PAHWM Blind leading the blind
 03-14-2018, 02:08 PM #35 sai1b0ats veteran     Join Date: Feb 2017 Posts: 2,091 Re: 1/3 ~\$500 Deep - KK in 3bet pot - PAHWM 1/3 w \$10 straddle, \$500 effective. V (in LP) \$20. Hero KK on button \$65. Folds to V who calls. Flop (\$144) Q92. V checks, Hero \$75, V calls. Turn (\$294) Q92,9 V checks, Hero (\$370 eff) ? this is a bet. given the read it might be a shove. but it's definitely a bet readless. we're 50 straddles effective! bet small to possibly induce if you wish. reexamine your overall approach if you think this is a checking spot.
 03-14-2018, 08:39 PM #36 6bet me grinder   Join Date: May 2016 Location: Melbourne, Australia Posts: 657 Re: 1/3 ~\$500 Deep - KK in 3bet pot - PAHWM I prefer to check the turn with QQ, AA and AK whilst betting the turn with KK and AQ, but it's fairly close either way. It's by no means awful to check back the turn here.
03-15-2018, 10:51 AM   #37
Spammysr
enthusiast

Join Date: Jul 2011
Posts: 75
Re: 1/3 ~\$500 Deep - KK in 3bet pot - PAHWM

Quote:
 Originally Posted by gobbledygeek Also, regarding spazz, he's seen us 3bet preflop and then double barrel; I just don't think we see a lot of spazz here against this massive show of strength. GcluelessspazznoobG
I completely agree. If I bet the turn and he jams, I wouldn't fold, but do you really think he's EVER going to bluff raise here? I truly do not think so at all.

Answer20 appreciate the detailed response and I think you're spot on. 6bet me I agree. I think I've established that checking AQ might be better than KK b/c I'd block more of his Qx value hands. But don't hate my play.

I think shoving here, in a LLSNL game given my image and opponent would be awful. This spot is so interesting, and what makes poker such a great game

sai1b0ats and johnnyBuz did you read my comments??? I feel like I've given quite a bit of solid input as to why checking does make some sense for sure.

03-15-2018, 12:20 PM   #38
sai1b0ats
veteran

Join Date: Feb 2017
Posts: 2,091
Re: 1/3 ~\$500 Deep - KK in 3bet pot - PAHWM

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Spammysr I completely agree. If I bet the turn and he jams, I wouldn't fold, but do you really think he's EVER going to bluff raise here? I truly do not think so at all. Answer20 appreciate the detailed response and I think you're spot on. 6bet me I agree. I think I've established that checking AQ might be better than KK b/c I'd block more of his Qx value hands. But don't hate my play. I think shoving here, in a LLSNL game given my image and opponent would be awful. This spot is so interesting, and what makes poker such a great game sai1b0ats and johnnyBuz did you read my comments??? I feel like I've given quite a bit of solid input as to why checking does make some sense for sure.
My overall point is that there is no reason to get cute when we have 50 straddles effective with a made hand. Pile in the chips. Sometimes we will lose. Our opponents call too much with weak made hands and chase too much and bluff too little. Easy game. Save the reads for when it matters. If you disagree, that's fine.

03-15-2018, 02:27 PM   #39
johnnyBuz
Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Sep 2013
Location: Beast Coast
Posts: 4,510
Re: 1/3 ~\$500 Deep - KK in 3bet pot - PAHWM

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Spammysr ... johnnyBuz did you read my comments??? I feel like I've given quite a bit of solid input as to why checking does make some sense for sure.
Yes, and I also read your comments where this guy cold called a 3! from the SB w QJo and then bet/called a 4.5x jam on the turn. You are way overthinking this spot it’s not that difficult.

Bet and then bet and then bet some more. He’s never folding JT to a moderate turn bet, and if you think he’s capable of bluffing bricked rivers than he’s equally capable of x/jamming the turn with JT since it sounds like you are folding everything worse than KK.

 03-15-2018, 02:38 PM #40 gobbledygeek Poet Laureate of LLSNL     Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 25,638 Re: 1/3 ~\$500 Deep - KK in 3bet pot - PAHWM Yeah, the history hand does play in a bit too. In one regard, at least in that hand he was calling it off with TP after the flop weakly checked thru (actually getting it in good); whether he does with weaker hands / draws against massive strength is another question. Although in another regard, he saw you make a massive semi-bluff in that hand, which means he might call lighter. GcluelessHHnoobG
 03-15-2018, 03:22 PM #41 shorn7 veteran   Join Date: Aug 2007 Posts: 2,645 Re: 1/3 ~\$500 Deep - KK in 3bet pot - PAHWM Surprised no one said it, but the 9 on the turn is a good card for HERO. Lessens the chance of a set and increases the % of total draws and Qx hands in V's range. To not bet here and give V's draws a free look seems awful to me, I don't care what the math says. You only want to induce when the board is (1) really dry and/or (2) you have close to an unbeatable hand. Neither is present here so fooling yourself that you got max value just because V decided to bet his missed draw on the river (terribly too with a double paired board) is a poor way to look at it.
03-15-2018, 04:51 PM   #42
gobbledygeek
Poet Laureate of LLSNL

Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 25,638
Re: 1/3 ~\$500 Deep - KK in 3bet pot - PAHWM

Quote:
 Originally Posted by shorn7 You only want to induce when the board is (1) really dry and/or (2) you have close to an unbeatable hand. Neither is present here so fooling yourself that you got max value just because V decided to bet his missed draw on the river (terribly too with a double paired board) is a poor way to look at it.
I think in general I agree with this. The thing is that in this case it is a pretty dry board, especially considering we block his OESD outs and counterfeit some two pair outs; he's drawing to very few outs here in most cases.

GcluelessNLnoobG

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