It would be a pretty good exercise for you to see how much value you lose by x turn.

If no one takes a shot at this tonight I might tomorrow. Although sometimes these are difficult to do since a lot depends on numbers we pull out of our asses (regarding how much he bluffs when we check behind, what he does when hitting one pair, how often he calls the turn with a draw on a paired board or an underpair, etc.). My overall guess is that we don't lose nearly as much as you think we do (and it may actually turn out to be the most profitable play).

GcluelessEVcomputingnoobG

I feel reasonably certain x KK on a Q929 turn in 3! pot where we block zero combos of AQ and villain previously stacked off with QJ is not going to be the most profitable line.

The river value bet is the most important bet there is and it’s predicated on geometrically increasing the size of the pot on the turn to maximize value on the river.

The goal should be to stack AQ with three streets of betting while getting two streets of value from JT. Worrying about possibly inducing bluffs or extracting a tiny bet out of 88 is pretty silly when the obvious value is staring us in the face.

Checking back the turn is a big mistake. There is also a non-zero percent chance that V spazz shoves the turn when we bet half pot.

Was going to attempt an EV breakdown, even for particular hands (like Qx vs JT and gutshots vs underpairs vs etc.) but I think overall it becomes very difficult very quickly due to assumptions we have to make. If anyone wants to take a shot at it, go for it.

It really depends on lots of factors, like:

- what does he do with JT on the turn on the river? if he always folds JT on a turn bet and yet will bluff the river a lot UI if we check (or payoff a bet / blocking bet when hitting a J/T), then you're likely better checking against JT; if he's going to pay off another bet on the turn or never bluff the river UI / payoff a bet with just a J/T, then you're better off betting against JT; another thing to keep in mind with JT is 2 of his 8 "outs" give him a straight while giving us a boat
- what does he do with gutshots/etc?; this is very similar to JT
- how often does he spazz against weak turn bets; if he's going to spazz a decent amount of the time, then betting is better
- against Qx you're likely better betting it; he's rarely folding, but there can be some river scare cards that could prevent stacks from getting in
- against underpairs you're likely better checking it; he's on a ~2 outer and meanwhile might pay off another bet / turn his hand into a bluff if we weakly check the turn

Overall, I don't hate a turn check because it would be my guess that he folds JT / gutshots most of the time on a turn bet (if this assumption is wrong, then checking is bad), and meanwhile we'll still get in stacks most of the time against Qx (although admittedly we risk scare cards to kill our action sometimes which obviously ain't ideal).

GcluelessEVcomputingnoobG

There just has to be way more combos of KJ, K10, J10, J8, than AQ, KQ, QJ. Plus A10, AJ, low pocket pairs that he bluffs river with vs doesn't call turn bet.

Also, regarding spazz, he's seen us 3bet preflop and then double barrel; I just don't think we see a lot of spazz here against this massive show of strength.

GcluelessspazznoobG

Blind leading the blind

You're digging in a little here, don't let a good thread turn on you!

I've already indicated that checking Turn IP is 'OK' if you think you might only get one street of value from this spot. When IP you 'will' be betting the River if your opponent doesn't lead/bluff into you, so the door's open. The question comes to treating this as a 'generic' spot and the long term missed value from the full range of holdings.

1) When you check the Turn your opponent gets a free card on an uneasy Board. How much will you lose when you call off on the River v just taking pots down that an opponent didn't want to draw? Ax/JT.
2) You have described a 'customer' image, who insta-called your Flop bet. Take advantage of V tendency to call/jam marginal holdings.

3) Betting the Turn 'weak' sets up the River for max value. Checking Turn and then hitting your K on the River may not get stacks in depending on how V sees your jam of his 'value' bet on a paired Board. Stacks are a sure thing if you 'shorten' them on the Turn.
4) You're assuming there are less bluffs in V when he bricks River after calling a weak Turn bet ... that may not be the case. That's why you place a slow 'thinking' weak Turn bet as you show concern for the 9.

5) What if V jams River after a Turn check? Are there more Bluffs than 9x hands?
6) What if V c/jams Turn? Are you ever folding? Behind only 9x since we probably can rule out AA and QQ from PF action.

Scenarios ...
A) Bet Turn and get a Turn fold ... win $0 extra
B) Bet Turn and get a c/f on River ... win 'something', maybe $85-110
C) Bet Turn and bet/jam River for value ... win 'lots', maybe $220-250 or more

D) Check Turn and get a c/f on River .. win $0 extra, give a free card
E) Check Turn and get value from all Qx hands .. win maybe $120-140
F) Check Turn and get bluffed into .. win $150 ish

G) Check Turn and get jammed on with blank ... ?????
H) Check Turn and get bet into/jammed on with A/Q/J/T/9/8/other PB card ... ????

Yes, there are other scenarios, but if you compare the 3 'bet' and 'check' spots I would tend to think I get more chips from betting long term.

The idea being you 'accept' that you will 'win more' against bigger/made hands than you 'win less' by protecting yourself against weaker hands that can out draw you or may bluff.

I agree that there is a time to keep an opponent's bluffing range 'available'. But I would rather see you check here on a 'true blank' than a card that connects with the Board.

1/3 w $10 straddle, $500 effective.

V (in LP) $20. Hero KK on button $65. Folds to V who calls.

Flop ($144) Q92. V checks, Hero $75, V calls.

Turn ($294) Q92,9 V checks, Hero ($370 eff) ?

this is a bet. given the read it might be a shove. but it's definitely a bet readless. we're 50 straddles effective! bet small to possibly induce if you wish.

reexamine your overall approach if you think this is a checking spot.

I prefer to check the turn with QQ, AA and AK whilst betting the turn with KK and AQ, but it's fairly close either way. It's by no means awful to check back the turn here.

I completely agree. If I bet the turn and he jams, I wouldn't fold, but do you really think he's EVER going to bluff raise here? I truly do not think so at all.

Answer20 appreciate the detailed response and I think you're spot on. 6bet me I agree. I think I've established that checking AQ might be better than KK b/c I'd block more of his Qx value hands. But don't hate my play.

I think shoving here, in a LLSNL game given my image and opponent would be awful. This spot is so interesting, and what makes poker such a great game

sai1b0ats and johnnyBuz did you read my comments??? I feel like I've given quite a bit of solid input as to why checking does make some sense for sure.

My overall point is that there is no reason to get cute when we have 50 straddles effective with a made hand. Pile in the chips. Sometimes we will lose. Our opponents call too much with weak made hands and chase too much and bluff too little. Easy game. Save the reads for when it matters. If you disagree, that's fine.

Yes, and I also read your comments where this guy cold called a 3! from the SB w QJo and then bet/called a 4.5x jam on the turn. You are way overthinking this spot it’s not that difficult.

Bet and then bet and then bet some more. He’s never folding JT to a moderate turn bet, and if you think he’s capable of bluffing bricked rivers than he’s equally capable of x/jamming the turn with JT since it sounds like you are folding everything worse than KK.

Yeah, the history hand does play in a bit too. In one regard, at least in that hand he was calling it off with TP after the flop weakly checked thru (actually getting it in good); whether he does with weaker hands / draws against massive strength is another question. Although in another regard, he saw you make a massive semi-bluff in that hand, which means he might call lighter.

GcluelessHHnoobG

Surprised no one said it, but the 9 on the turn is a good card for HERO. Lessens the chance of a set and increases the % of total draws and Qx hands in V's range. To not bet here and give V's draws a free look seems awful to me, I don't care what the math says.

You only want to induce when the board is (1) really dry and/or (2) you have close to an unbeatable hand. Neither is present here so fooling yourself that you got max value just because V decided to bet his missed draw on the river (terribly too with a double paired board) is a poor way to look at it.

I think in general I agree with this. The thing is that in this case it is a pretty dry board, especially considering we block his OESD outs and counterfeit some two pair outs; he's drawing to very few outs here in most cases.

GcluelessNLnoobG