Hey guys - played a hand that I REALLY want your opinion on turn play.

Playing 1/3 w $10 straddle on. I have about $500, and Villian covers us with about $700-$800

V (in LP) min-raises to $20. I look down at KK on button and make it $65 to go. Folds to initial raiser who calls.

Played with this villain before - young white kid who's not that good. One other hand we played together this session. I raise to $15 w K9, some indian LAG 3bet to $40 from D, V cold called SB and I called. Flop came Q105. Checks through to turn which is a brick 2. V in this hand leads for $100, I jam for ~$450, initial indian 3better folded and he called with QJo. We ran it 3 times and I won third. (Don't want analysis on this hand I know where the mistakes were, just wanted to say I have that info on this kid that he cold calls 3! with QJo OOP).

ANYWAY - this hand Flop comes Q92 . He checks to me and I bet $75 and he called pretty quickly.

Turn is the 9 so now two 9s on board. He checks to me. As mentioned, I started the hand with about ~$500, maybe a bit less.

I have interesting opinions on turn plays, but want to hear your opinions first, then will post what I did and how the rest of hand played out.

Ship it.

Please post pot sizes on each street.

On the turn, there is $290 in the middle and you have ~$350 left. Shipping is a bit of an overbet. I would bet more on the flop to set up a turn ship. If you bet $100, there would be $345 in the middle and you'd have $330 behind. If he's calling $75 on the flop, he's calling $100 too. It's a pretty dry flop. If he has a Q he isn't folding to one bet and may talk himself into calling the turn bet as well.

One more note - because of the straddle, you are effectively playing 50 BB's deep. If you had $150 in front of you, how would you play KK? Get it in the middle as fast as you can. It's the same concept here, just with more money.

I disagree with this. Just because in theory it is correct, ppl are more reluctant to get $500 in the middle as compared to $250 or whatever no matter what the blinds are (and especially if the blinds they signed up to play are smaller) just because $500 is more than $250. Not considering this could be a big mistake imo.

That being said though, in this spot against this guy, I agree. Just figuring out how to get the rest of my chips in the middle.

$75 pre and more on flop would be good.

As played, I probably bet $150 and shove river (unless it's a Q).

He'll feel committed. Shoving now is a bit overkill, but he might think you are trying to get him to fold, so it might work. I get the 50bb because of straddle, but water69 is correct -- it's a lot of money for "only" 1/3.

$140 in the pot, $435 left to bet.
Once we see that flop, plan out the best way to get all the money in.
The 9 does not change this plan.

I agree with this the most.

Okay, here's my thinking on the turn, let me know if this makes sense to you guys.

I think after I raise to $60 pre and bet $75 on flop, he's going to continue with a TON of his range with a call on flop. Like a very high %. I think he calls almost all pairs, KJ, K10, J10, maybe like A10s+, all Queens and 9s of course.

When turn is a 9, i think it's just as likely that he has a 9 as a Q given his tiny min raise to $20. From my experience at these fishy games, he could easily have 98o or 10 9o, J9ss+ and probably wouldn't fold to that smallish 3bet.

If I bet any reasonable amount on turn, I think he will fold all hands but Qs and 9s essentially b/c the 9 is a really bad card for J10, KJ, K10, Axss. I also don't think he'd continue too often with under pairs like 33-88 which might continue on flop to fold turn.

I think by checking turn, I am essentially GUARANTEEING a bet by the river. I don't know if he'd call 3 streets with a Q, it's certainly possible. Correct me if you feel differently, but I think that most fish/not such great players would certainly bet a majority of their range as first to act on river if I check back the turn b/c it screams of weakness. I also think it makes it VERY easy to play this hand with guaranteed no hard decisions.

If I check turn and the river is essentially anything but a Q, I would easily call his bets and I would bet myself if he checks. I think if I check back turn and its a brick river, he bluffs every KJ, J10, K10, low pocket pair, ace high hands b/c I under-repped my hand so much and those hands would just fold turn most likely. He value bets all Qs and bluffs most other hands that don't have much showdown value.

I'm interested in hearing your guys response to this b/c I think it's pretty reasonably thought out (plus it balances my range in my opinion, not something that's vital in LLSNL, but of course somewhat important always)

If you check the turn and he has any kind of SDV he's going to check again on the river and hope to show it down imo. MAYBE he bets a bricked draw but I wouldn't count on it.

I think if you're first to act and have a read that he will fire his draws if you check to him then I might like checking, but since you're closing the action I think you have to bet. It's also not equally likely for him to have a 9 once the second one hits the board simply due to card removal. I don't think he's folding Qx so you can get value and you're never folding with barely more than a psb left. Other thing to consider is if he does bet Qx on the river he will likely bet pretty small and you'll miss value on the size of the bet, since I think raising a river lead would be terrible.

I'm open to being wrong, but IME at low stakes, getting fancy when there's value to be had is rarely the right play.

I'm not sure why he won't call 3 streets of value with a Q. He called an all in with QJ.

I don't mind checking the turn for pot control in a lot of situations but this is not one of them. You have an opponent who will call down light and will call wide pre flop. So there are a lot of draws in his range. I would bet this turn in this situation.

If you are checking this turn to induce a bluff on the river that's fine. But that is different than checking back to balance your range.

Certainly from my experience, I think there's a high % chance he bluffs with ALL straight draws missed and a decent % of small pairs that he is unsure of, especially after my turn check looks super weak. Also, I think it's better to check in position b/c I can see what he does on the river. Understood about card removal and fair point about bet sizing. Agree about getting fancy - I don't think this is getting too fancy, I think it's a fool-proof way to make this hand very easy to play. But I may be sacrificing some value.

I just think he has SO many hands he is going to be bluffing with on river that he may just fold turn.

And this is a very good point. He certainly could call a Q based on history. But, it is a different scenario of course. My range is more weighted towards semi bluffs in previous hand where if I 3! and bet bet bet it's unlucky to have too many bluffs.

I agree pot control might not be the best situation, but I am certainly doing it to induce. In this situation given this opponent I think that's a pretty optimal strategy which is why I did it.

For some reason this hand really really intrigues me more than most hands I've ever played.

Anything to make of the minraise? Anyways, so long as we're cool stacking off preflop with KK $600 deep (typically I wouldn't be but in a $10 straddle game and against a guy described as not very good I think we have to) I'd go to about $85 to prevent setmining odds. It's offering a very conservative 8:1 so if you want to go smaller to offer slightly better (but still poor overall) IO that's likely fine too, but I'm on the conservative easy peasy end of the spectrum.

SPR is 3 on the flop and we've flopped an overpair, so we're committed (hence why I like a bigger raise preflop).

Very dry board, so we can get this in three very sucky bets, especially to keep JJ-/etc. hanging around for a while. I'd probably do 3 1/2 PSBs on this board, so $75 is fine on the flop.

By the turn the pot is $290 and we have just $360 behind. I'd likely just continue with the 1/2 PSB idea. Although another idea, especially against anyone who is bluffy, is to check behind and induce a bluff, although with him calling the flop bet it's more likely he has something (although this something might bet the river themselves and have a hard time folding to our WTF shove, or be more willing to call a WTF shove on the river even when checking). Even a scared looking "same bet" of $75 produces a $440 pot with just $285 behind.

ETA: I don't hate the idea of getting a little tricky on the turn, cuz I actually think you're correct in that most players will fold less than Qx, and those hands are likely drawing to very few outs. Although, having said that, letting them draw to their few outs in a massive pot for free is more of a mistake than letting them draw to those few outs in a small pot.

Glotsofoptionsontheturn,imoG

I'm going for max value against this guy. Bet/bet/shove.

Bet flop, bet turn, bet river ,
Your in position and should expect Indian, chinese , old man / young man, old grandma , old man coffee to come along with his qx majority of the time,

Bet/bet/bet

Please don’t shove turn.

Also, please don't check the turn.

Could go a little more pre of course. But, denying set-mining odds shouldn't be entering our mind when we're sitting on 50 straddles with KK.

I def think shoving turn could be worse than checking for the reasons I mentioned against this type of player at LLSNL.

Thanks for the feedback guys - here's what happened in the rest of the hand:

I check turn back. River is a 2 so a complete brick that double pairs the board. He leads out for $150 and I call. He shows J 10 . So I think in this situation exactly, I may have gotten max value. I could bet same bet on turn - $75 or $85 and he could spazz and shove, or maybe just donk lead river if he misses. But if he just check calls and then check folds river when he misses, I didn't get as much value as the turn check strategy.

You gave him free chance to realize his equity , this specific v calls the turn bet for sure if you were gonna bet, yes checking can induce bluffs when his draws brick out , but overall most V's range should not contain a 9 or 2 here and is heavy to QK,QA, if you have a soul read and put him on 10J or if there was a flush draw that bricked out kinda thing then I can get behind a river check to induce line ,

Exactly. You gave the guy a free card to beat you and then you got lucky when he decided to bet his missed draw on the river. There is no way that your line is the highest EV play. Your thought process is results-oriented in this case.

just bet like hp ott. You don't wanna fold out a queen with a bad kicker since you're representing a 9 with an over bet.

this isn't a PAHWM

You bet the turn precisely to get value from Qx and JT. You don't shove the turn because that folds out JT.

Giving JT a free shot at 8 outs (he doesn't know you have KK blocking two outs) is not getting max value.

You can't rely on JT bluffing the river either.

You're trying to maximize value against his entire range, not the actual hand he shows up with.

I completely understand and I do think that betting half pot or less on turn may be optimal.

But I don't think I 'got lucky' that he bluffed when he bricked. As discussed, I think that he is continuing on flop with a high % of his range. I also think he is betting a HIGH % of his missed draws on river, and not just J10.

K10, KJ, A10, J10 of the suited and off suit variety all will bet river so he can win the pot plus maybe some smaller pocket pairs he doesn't think are good anymore. It's not about having a soul read, I think there are more straight draws and hands like I mentioned vs KQ and AQ which would call 3 streets probably.

At these LLSNL stakes I feel that if you show weakness by checking that turn after 3! and flop bet, they bet river a high % of time, especially this opponent, if they think they can get you to fold.

Someone would have to breakdown the math of the value of checking the turn versus betting the turn because I doubt it's as obvious as everyone thinks (although I'd guess towards betting small).

Our check looks really weak-ass, so I'd expect an UI gutshot/etc. to attempt to bluff a huge amount of the time; 92% of the time he'll miss, so we'll see a bunch of bluff attempts (maybe upwards of 80% of the time?) versus only 8% value bets. You also have to factor in the time he hits enough of his whiffed gutshot (i.e. makes a worse pair) / already has a weak underpair that is drawing to 2 outs to put out a blocking bet / call a river bet.

Course, we then also have to factor in the times he has Qx, in which case we're missing big value if we're only calling the river donk. Although I guess we can rectify this by shoving over any river bet.

GcluelessmathnoobG

1) Not shoving Turn unless I have history with opponent, folding too much out

2) Betting the Turn 'weak' .. maybe $110 .. It's not a free card and still offers the potential bluffing stack on the River to V. I think there is something to be said about possibly checking IP but betting OOP since we can still look weak by checking the River OOP and if go to showdown then we got some value on the Turn. I want at least one street of value from Turn/River. Betting the Turn weak may open up a c/r bluff from V as well ... which we are already committed to calling.

3) Checking back Turn to mix up our play is 'OK' against a reg but depending on our image it may look very trappy. Need more information about Hero's tendencies.

4) I will give credit for a live read here, but as most of the posts have noted how much value is being given up against 'made' hands. We certainly can't expect a call of a shove on the River if it gets checked to us ... so chips are being left on the table. Whereas even the weakest of bets on the Turn may prompt a 'there's so much money in there' call on the River. GL

Yeah pretty much this is exactly what I'm thinking. Anyone want to run those numbers