Quote:
Originally Posted by Javanewt
$75 pre and more on flop would be good.
As played, I probably bet $150 and shove river (unless it's a Q).
He'll feel committed. Shoving now is a bit overkill, but he might think you are trying to get him to fold, so it might work. I get the 50bb because of straddle, but water69 is correct -- it's a lot of money for "only" 1/3.
I agree with this the most.
Okay, here's my thinking on the turn, let me know if this makes sense to you guys.
I think after I raise to $60 pre and bet $75 on flop, he's going to continue with a TON of his range with a call on flop. Like a very high %. I think he calls almost all pairs, KJ, K10, J10, maybe like A10s+, all Queens and 9s of course.
When turn is a 9, i think it's just as likely that he has a 9 as a Q given his tiny min raise to $20. From my experience at these fishy games, he could easily have 98o or 10 9o, J9ss+ and probably wouldn't fold to that smallish 3bet.
If I bet any reasonable amount on turn, I think he will fold all hands but Qs and 9s essentially b/c the 9 is a really bad card for J10, KJ, K10, Axss. I also don't think he'd continue too often with under pairs like 33-88 which might continue on flop to fold turn.
I think by
checking turn, I am essentially GUARANTEEING a bet by the river. I don't know if he'd call 3 streets with a Q, it's certainly possible. Correct me if you feel differently, but I think that most fish/not such great players would certainly bet a majority of their range as first to act on river if I check back the turn b/c it screams of weakness. I also think it makes it VERY easy to play this hand with guaranteed no hard decisions.
If I check turn and the river is essentially anything but a Q, I would easily call his bets and I would bet myself if he checks. I think if I check back turn and its a brick river, he bluffs every KJ, J10, K10, low pocket pair, ace high hands b/c I under-repped my hand so much and those hands would just fold turn most likely. He value bets all Qs and bluffs most other hands that don't have much showdown value.
I'm interested in hearing your guys response to this b/c I think it's pretty reasonably thought out (plus it balances my range in my opinion, not something that's vital in LLSNL, but of course somewhat important always)
Last edited by Spammysr; 03-12-2018 at 03:48 PM.