Villain is MAWG, on the older end, TAG. Have not seen him get out of line, no showdowns of significance. He had his stack built up when Hero sat maybe an hour earlier.
Hero is early 30s WG, seen as LAG. Table saw Hero win a big pot early when he straddled button to $6, 4 callers, Hero raised to $45 with black KK, two callers from table short stacks. Hero shoved for under PSB on a flop like 986, got one caller, and KK held. Hero then stacked a player for 100bb flopping bottom set on an AT3 flop and c/c Villain's flop bet and turn jam on an offsuit 5. Villain then saw Hero GII on a low flop with JJ, get called by TT, and lose to runner-runner straight.
Villain is the effective stack with around 900. Hero covers.
Villain opens from MP to $15. Hero looks at K
Q
in the CO and flats. BTN and blinds fold.
Flop ($30) A
T
5
Villain bets $21. Hero contemplates a raise, and perhaps I should have. I need some semibluffs in my range if I'm going to raise flop with A5/AT/sets, and it seems like a decent hand to use for that. In the moment, Hero decided that the IO of the added gutshot against what should be a strong value range from Villain were more important than possibly getting 3! big from V on this flop. Hero flats.
Turn ($72) J
Jackpot. Villain bets $35 in rhythm. I range him on sets, QQ-KK, AT-AK, as I don't expect him to barrel this turn without at least TP, although he could be getting a little jiggy turning QQ-KK into a bluff with some gutter equity. I block basically any draws he could have except pair + gutter. I have no real info on how V will react to turn raises in this kind of spot.
Hero raises to.....?