What is he getting value from? He can't simultaneously be betting AK for value with a PSB while having FE with his drawing hands. If he has AK, he doesn't beat KQ and he is basically telling KJs/KTs "hey you're beat - feel free to fold." I would expect to see a smaller 1/2 - 2/3 PSB with AK. Most decent players aren't calling naked draws for PSB's, certainly not a guy that is racking up and has no inclination to fire the occasional large river bluff.

He certainly has them (AJs/ATs) but this comes down to the subjective read part. They are subtle differences, but I think he would open the AJs/ATs combos slightly lower than 6x. If you don't, that's fine and it's going to cause your range for him to differ from mine.

But if you are giving him those combos then you are resigning yourself to call pretty much any non- or Broadway river. The thread also neglected to touch on the RIO situation that happened in this exact hand where we hit a better "two pair" OTR and then get slammed anyway.

You're overestimating how easy it is to make a hand. He doesn't need us to fold KJ/KT to be making money with his bluffs, and if we do he is printing with the bluffing portion of his range. We still have tons of worse hands that can fold the turn, like Qx, gutters, and PPs that decided to peel one. If we don't have these hands in our range then his flop bluffs already made a lot of money.

lol dude i think i've played enough hours to know how hard it is to make a hand

this is a fundamental difference of opinion. i think both players' ranges are narrower, you think they are wider.

a guy racking up is going to be playing easy hit-or-quit hands. not speculative hands that require seeing expensive turns and rivers and calling naked gutters.

If the Villain plays QQ, KK, 33, and KQ this way, we're ahead on that range on the river.

So the question is, if the Villain has KQ, is he afraid of the three combos (besides the unlikely aces) that beat him on the river?