V (LP) ($240) Loose player calling wide, nothing out of the ordinary

H (UTG) (Covers) - playing a good amount of hands, but folded a winner a couple hands earlier to pressure (no one saw)

H $15 w/ AQ , 4 callers including V

Flop AKQ ($75)

H $30, fold to V who makes it $70, Hero ??

What's the plan?

Call and evaluate turn. Shipping is pretty spew and I don't think I can fold given that price unless he flips over J10, though he does have that at a high freq

Bet $45 OTF. $30 is too tiny IMO.

As played, definitely call. And pray.

As a general rule, the wetter the board, the larger your c-bet should be. This board is as wet as they get. This is not a spot for betting less than 1/2 pot. C-bet should be at least $50.

As played, you can't fold now. Just call. If the turn blanks out and he bombs it, it's a close spot. But your equity improves on a lot of turns.

So he's virtually a lock to have JT here given how strong you look raising UTG then betting this flop into 5 players.

I'm frequently a proponent of folding as early as possible in spots like this, you can trust LLSNL players to accurately tell you when you're beaten and my usual argument is that it doesn't matter if he doesn't have JT if we're always folding the turn anyway. That said, I don't think I can quite justify a fold here. There are good prospects of getting his stack if we boat up and a spade turn will allow you to make a breakeven stackoff and get to showdown. I think it's just about worth a call, but it's close.

What’s your general read on his willingness to semi-bluff raise here?

Assuming he won’t semi-bluff, this is just a bad spot. Call and evaluate seems to make sense.

He’s calling pre here very wide so it’s both unlikely and unlucky for him to have JT. This supports the call-evaluate line.

If he raised more, I’d be more inclined to just jam noting the stack sizes. But you both are betting small otf and his small raise feels pretty strong.

Just some random thoughts here.


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I hate our preflop result (bloated pot, multiway, OOP, low SPR handcuffing us postflop and yet giving multiple players decent IO) and assume it's expected a decent amount of the time.

SPR is lol 3 and we've got two pair on a drawy board. I'm feeling pretty committed (and yet hating it at the same time). I would either check to shove this flop, or otherwise bet large to shove the turn (also don't think open shoving if everyone is at $225 remaining is horrible either). As played, I'm lying in the bed I made preflop, shoving, and living with results.

ETA: For all those who are calling, we'll be leaving ourselves with less than a 3/4 PSB left for the turn. We don't think we're committed?

GcluelessNLnoobG

You're trying to play poker as solitaire again. This post contains zero discussion of what villain might have even though that's the central thing of interest in the hand. Whether you're "committed" or not depends not on esoteric SPR numbers but on whether we can firmly put the opponent on JT. This kind of highlights a more general problem with reducing things to SPR formulas, which is that it's inherently anti-exploitative and exploitation is the main thing we're trying to do at LLSNL.

You had 4 opponents though, and all of them are probably flatting JT. If you raise UTG and expect any opponent dealt JT to flat it, then the chance that someone has JT on this flop is notionally 1 in 6 without regard to the number of callers, but it will be a little higher than that here because there are a larger than average number of callers. I'd guesstimate 1 in 5.

He can't have AJ/AT/KQ/flushdraw/pair+flushdraw/pair+straightdraw/etc.? Yes, we'll run into JT here a decent amount, as we will AK (another reason preflop is meh), but for these remaining stacks (which people are much more willing to commit for rather than ginormous stacks behind) we run into enough that we're ahead of (and also have to worry very little about running into sets due to combinations and fact most of them are 3bet preflop), imo.

GcluelessNLnoobG

I don't think so. With the combo draw hands, if he was going to raise, he'd certainly just shove. With AJ/AT, if this guy has seen us raise UTG then bet out into 4 opponents on AKQ and thinks "better raise AJ to see where I'm at", well, then, he got me. I don't think that's how people who have ever played holdem before in their lives play. KQ is sort of vaguely possible, as he might feel uncomfortable flatting with two pair, but it's only 6 combos so if his range is { KQ, JT } then we shouldn't stack off.

The small raise OTF here is an example of something that I don't think has a name, I guess I'd call it an "unforced action". Compare with this thread:

This is an example of a hand where I'd note that the guy is kind of splashy and random, but I wouldn't make specific reads off this, because on every street here, the dealer pointed at this guy and he had to do SOMETHING, in a spot where it wasn't clear to him what he should do.

This raise on the other hand, there are several other more "normal" options - fold, call, jam. There's no obvious reason to make this size and this player is not just a button masher ("nothing out of the ordinary"), therefore there's some thought process behind him having raised this size. This is by far the most important fact about the hand to me, because if you conclude that a LLSNL player is trying to manipulate you - which is what I'm concluding about the small raise - then the information gleaned from that is trustworthy 99.9% of the time. These players are not sophisticated enough to make "fake manipulation" plays, nor is it a good idea considering how unsophisticated the field is.

Like if your take is "well he raised this size to see where he's at" then my answer is simply that I disagree, but I can't tell you for sure that that's wrong. But if your contention is "he just raised to 70 for no reason, just clicking buttons, who knows with these guys" then I completely reject that that's how 95%+ of players play. Somewhere deep in the misfiring synapses of this guy's brain, there is a reason he pushed 70 out, and not 225 or even 60 or 100.

PS, that reason is this:

As stated, flop bet was too small. I am definitely calling and seeing a turn.

Any reads on this player post flop? Has he raised flop before?

I would definitely call here, probably check-call OTT/OTR. Critical information is missing: Is V aggressive or passive? Passive V would probably just call with JT. KQ, QT, KT, and AT are all in his range, including flush draws, or would he raise those PF? Or would he call with those OTF? Lastly, even if he had TJ, you still have outs to make a full house, and given he's calling wide, you can expect to get stacks, if you do. Since you are posting, I assume he had TJ and you lost, but it doesn't mean he always has it.

Loose passive players don't raise their draws, especially not for that price. I'm inclined to think he has us beat here and we can fold, even though it's a good price.

Ultimately if the turn is like 4d, we're going to call so it's not really just $40 to call, it's our remaining stack most of the time so I'd just give this one up.

Backdoor NFD, strong 2p is way too much of a monster on this flop for such a small cb

Size up your cb on wetter flops like this, as you improve to a redraw on any spade OTT

Call flop, check OTT if blank for pot control

We can be positive he doesn't have TT+, as most likely he would be 3betting those hands preflop. We block KQ/QJ combos and we hold the BDNFD.

http://www.pokerstrategy.com
Board: AsKsQc
Equity Win Tie
UTG 80.28% 77.13% 3.15% { AhQs }
CO 19.72% 16.57% 3.15% { 99-44, AJs-A2s, K8s+, Q8s+, J8s+, T9s, 98s, AQo-A7o, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }

You're crushing his pf range, however we have to remember to tread carefully given that this is an incredibly bloated multiway pot OOP.

We'll have < 3/4 PSB left for the turn.

Gpotcontrolbushasleftthestation,imoG

+1

Such crappy spot.

I am folding quite often on turn.

Us having Qs. Blocks any weird bluffs he is trying to pull off.

Actually hoping for a spade. May slow down action.

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