Quote:
Originally Posted by johnny_on_the_spot
his description is too loose. i think he can show up with far more than 2P. i believe in my 1st post ITT i said busted FD or weak K
the 5 really shouldnt help either of us and if he thinks we're on a FD, he's charging us with a hand. if he's on a FD, he probably doesnt think we are and that we're on a TPWK type hand. the overcard comes and we could have the A if we're on the FD but it's not a given + even if we have it, given our action, we probably have a crappy kicker (which we really do, it just happens to have made a 2nd pair). if he was on the FD, the A is the perfect card if we have TPWK.
We think Villain is barrelling a flush draw into a protected pot / $0 side pot on the turn? And continuing on the river when he busts?
Our turn call is very suspect, imo. We're getting a grand total of 5:1 implied odds on it, which means he needs to pay off huge stacks a lot when the most obvious draw in a protected pot comes in, plus pays off a lot when his two pair gets counterfeited, plus we somehow manage to not pay him off when our two pair is no good (which obviously won't happen as we called here, albeit good in this case). And on top of all that we can't totally ignore the all-in Villain (which is sucking up some equity and sometimes has a monster that we are drawing thin to, and the result is a perfect example where a couple of our outs are no good against him).
ETA: And let's actually follow up with this particular result (being admittedly results oriented). On the turn we called $160 and ended up winning $160 + $385, so we got 3.4:1. We actually only had 12 outs, so just barely getting the required odds. And on top of that we had huge RIO on the 5
(where we lose our stack) plus lame IO on any other
and lame-ish IO on the counterfeiting 7 (where I'm assuming we only get paid off part of the time). There's no reason to put Villain on a weak hand in this protected pot on the turn (keeping in mind the weaker his hand is, the less our IO are). The turn call is bad, imo (in general, calling with drawing hands in protected pots is bad).
GcluelessNLnoobG
Last edited by gobbledygeek; 10-07-2015 at 12:12 PM.