Hero 550€. Didnt play a hand in an hour. Didnt 3b much.

V1 at the table for about 1 hour. In 30s with cap. Pretty active so far~700€
V2 loose recreational in mid 50s. ~500€

V1 raises in MP 10€, V2 calls in hj, we decide to make a move and squeeze with A8 to 45€ in co. Both call.

Flop (139€) AT8
V1 and V2 check, hero cbets 90€, only V2 calls.

Turn (319€) AT87
V2 checks, hero checks

River (319€) AT84
V2 bets 80€, hero?

I'd definitely call - we're getting 5 to 1 pot odds here, so only need to be good 16% of the time I think? Certainly less than 20% since 4 to 1 pot odds require 20% equity.

I can't see villain having a flush or other winning hand more than 80% of the time here. The river bet does look like a "please call me" bet, but flopped flushes are so rare. A lower 2 pair than yours that he's trying to get some small value for OTR is certainly possible after it goes check/check on the turn.

(I'm guessing you forgot the turn 7h in the river board? =P)

Oops

Sorry the question is do we raise or just call. Im never ever folding here.

Oooooh, okay gotcha. I was thinking too "come on, so obvious you can't fold this!"

In that case, I think I actually like raise/fold here:

Given the pre-flop and flop action, your hand looks like a big ace, so you certainly might get called by a weaker 2-pair. And if you're reraised, it's absolutely clear that you're beat.

I think the chances of villain holding a flush is very small because he would've wanted to build the pot OTT or even check-raise small OTF since you've shown considerable strength up to that point. A 4th diamond kills his action if not give you a bigger 1 card flush if you have AK/AQ with the K/Q of diamonds (very likely hands in your range), so flushes are not good for slowplaying.

Sets are also not going to slowplay on this board.

Straight is possible but also unlikely because I don't think most people call with a straight draw on a monotone board. At best he's got 2 less straight outs; at worst he's already drawing dead.

I like the chances of you being called by a smaller 2 pair enough to raise here.

Grunch: PSB on the flop as a b/f, please.

AP, obvious call is obvious.

OK, good. Now, unless I know the middle-age rec player can fold a middling flush (especially after he called a raise with it PF), then the only better hand that may fold to the raise is AT.

Call

Just call. Nobody folds flushes at this level and he's folding everything we beat.

I wasnt thinking about raising as a bluff.
I mean raising small to like 200-250 for value. But maybe its too thin

Call, and bet turn for value.

Raising river for thin value would be very bad.

What do you think that he calls such a raise with that you beat?

Ship the turn.

Worse 2pair. Maybe AQ, AJ but that could be results oriented thinking

Just because he had that, doesn't mean he would have called a raise with it.

We just call and he had AQo without the Q of

Ya you are right

You missed value, but it wasn't on the river, imo.

I mostly just flat preflop. Mostly cuz I'm passive like that, but for lots of other reasons too (our hand plays fine multiway, we'll be in position and deep and can save any desired moves for postflop, we obviously don't have much FE preflop, etc.).

This is the second hand I've responded to today where preflop has kinda put us in a much more awkward spot than had we simply called preflop. If we hadda just called we would have a huge SPR where we can just play postflop poker in position over multiple streets and never be handcuffed by commitment decisions. But thanks to preflop we're now facing a commitment decision basically ASAP in this small SPR pot. Do we feel committed? We better decide quick, imo.

Anyhoo, for better or worse on this drawy board I probably feel committed and PSB the flop to setup a turn shove. Not really a fan of the $90 bet because it leaves us with an awkward stack behind when we likely should still feel committed on blank turns.

Turn isn't the best card but it ain't the worse. I probably ship it (wishing I had bet more on the flop to do this easily).

As played, I just call the small bet on the river getting good odds and I'm not sure how often a raise is called by worse (although we certainly have played our hand weirdly where worse could perhaps call).

Gmeh,imoG

A flush would either check-raise flop, or make a bigger bet on the River, not not do either - I would rule out a flopped flush.

You lose to AT and maybe TT, but I think those hands x/r flop.

You beat all bluffs and even a ton of hands he might think he's betting for value (Ax, smaller two pairs like A7, A4, 87).

The River sizing makes me think this is an easy call.

Why would raising for thin value be so bad if we think villain could call with worse?

Because of all the hands that he could have in his range that beat you?

He has a lot of hands that beat us but he also has hands in his range that we beat and could get thin value from.

Yes sometimes we will value own ourselves but isnt the difference between a good and a great player that the great player tries to maximize his winnings by value betting thinly even though he knows that his bet will only make a small profit in the longrun?

Just some thoughts. EDIT: Im not great yet so maybe im wrong and raising isnt good thin value and just overplaying the hand...

I just noticed that an obvious straight comes in on the Turn (J9).

My River decision has tuned from easy call to just call.

I don't think raising should be considered at all.

Raising for thin value definitely separates the good players from the great ones.

In this exact scenario, given the action up until the River, what hands would you say V2 could have that Hero beats and would also call a raise?

Try listing a few hands to start.

T8, T7, A7, A4, 87, other Ax hands with or without a diamond.
Villain was a really loose and bad recreational. He limp-called pre hands like J3s and shyte.

I also think that he would bet bigger otr with a strong hand but wasnt sure obviously.

If he is bad enough to call with a naked Ax, then raising can be considered.

Results?