lol u dude. Zune thinks he's folding over half the time. Shorn thinks he's folding something like 80%+. You're the only one who thinks we get snapped 90% here.

The "insane" assumption I made about this "moderately weak tight Villain" who 4bet bluffed Ace high is that he cbet/folds overcard hands occcasionally, like 25-30%.

Oh BTW, your B/E equation assumes we make $120 when we hit our hand.

You said you got that from me, using my 36 to 1 estimation. $9 x 36 = 324. Villain only has $245 to start the hand.

So you're $120 section of that equation is seriously flawed. Like seriously seriously flawed.

You're right. That is insane. You think a weak-tight type is just gonna launch a 3/4 pot bet with AKo into 3 people, from out of position, on a somewhat wet board.

Insane.

No, you fail. The logic behind saying we need 36 to 1 is that we don't on average win our opponent's whole stack, otherwise we'd only need a little over 18 to 1. Since you doubled it, that means you believe on average, we win an amount a little over half of the opponent's stack when we hit. Half of the opponent's stack is 122.5.

How often would you say a weak tight 4bet bluffs Ace high?

We don't know he was bluffing. Maybe he thought he was good with AJ. Or maybe he actually had AA and only showed 1 card.

lol ok, so we don't know if anything the op is saying is true. Maybe OP misread his cards and he actually had T3 of hearts. Good talk.

You don't think the OP is a little vague? You don't think that the 4-bet example requires some kind of context in order for it to be considered in our decisions?

We can draw no good info from a description that says little more than weak tight and 4bet light pre.

Ep 4x 80bb, button & sb call while covering their chips... I'm playing t9s because I didn't drive to the casino to fold, but gotta be borderline.

If you think weak tight players 4bet light pre, then fold.

Weird thread to blow up.

For me preflop is borderline and mostly boils down to my opponents. If everyone in the hand is a competent player, I'm not convinced we'll be able to overcome our positional disadvantage with a hand that has RIO on almost every "good" hand it makes (I'd much more call with ~nuttish draw making hands in order to punish my opponents who are playing hands like T9s). If everyone in the hand is a complete moron and willing to put in a decent amount of chips postflop with lol hands even as I continually bet into the world from OOP, I'm guessing we'll do just fine.

GseesgrayinablackandwhiteworldG

I'll admit I may have bungled some equations along the way here. But not enough to change my thoughts on this hand. Let's start the math over. And let's use Mr Cheese's *brilliant* calculation (which was also bungled, but w/e).

A)When we flop a good hand, we expect to get 50% of max value on average. Max value would be v's stack, $233, plus the pot $48, minus our PF call, $9. So that's $272 x 50% = +$136. We're using goofy's post to say that will happen 5.6% of the time.

$136 x 5.6% = $7.62

B)We stand to flop a 12+ out draw that we can play aggressively 6.9% of the time. The +EV of this is debatable. But I don't have the energy for that anymore, so I'll just use Mr. Cheese's figure of $18.

$18 x 6.9% = $1.24

C) The rest of the time we put in $9 and nothing happens. 87.5%

-9 x 87.5% = -$7.88

The grand total of the above is +$0.98. Not even enough to tip.

I think we are all agreed on the math here so far? This is Mr. Cheese's break even equation.

I would refine it the following ways:

A) I don't know if 50% of max value is the right number. I'm open to correcting that if it's wrong. Figuring that out requires an epic math project, accounting for a massive tree of possibilities, that I'm not willing to do. I generally use 2x break-even as a rule of thumb for drawing hands pre-flop. For example, I like 15-1 for set mining. I really don't think I'm alone there.

B) I don't believe that the EV of semi-bluffing a big draw is as high as $18. That figure requires alot of folds from the villain, and I just don't see "weak tight" players c-betting air into 3 people with a short stack.

C) I believe we lose more than $9 on average in this situation. If V c-bets a dry T-high flop, are we folding? Is it really +EV to continue there? Probably not if V is actually "tight". Also, we might call a bet and fold later when we flop a naked straight or flush draw. On the other hand this is offset by the times we hit our draws. Although, not a whole lot because V doesn't have very much money to pay us off with. So on balance, I would say that this line probably costs more than $9. How much, I don't exactly know, but we've only got 98 cents to play with before we fall into -EV.

And we haven't even talked about rake yet.

Cheese....these are your numbers bro. Where is the profit!!??

I am mostly okay with your calculations there. The place to factor in the rake is in part A. Instead of 136*5.6%, it would be 133*5.6%. This knocks $0.17 off the final EV. You can also change the $18 to $15, which knocks another $0.20 off. The final EV would then be $0.61.

When you say "not even enough to tip," that's not right. Your calculations show we win $0.98 (or $0.61) on average over all our calls. But you're not going to tip when you lose. So like if we repeat the hand 100 times, we lose something like 90+ of the trials (87 of them we're c/fing the flop), and so we only have to come up with nine or ten tips out of our $98 (or $61) total winnings.

As to point (C), it seems like you're saying my bad strategy of open folding everything else - which is guaranteed to make this minimum amount of $0.61 on average if the hypotheses of the model are correct- is the best strategy. I don't believe that it is the best strategy, but if you're unsure, just play that way and make the $0.61 profit. You don't have to actually open fold, just mentally commit to folding all naked draws and one pairs to a bet.

I'm not convinced math is going to do a very good job at solving preflop because we very quickly start introducing numbers out of our ass that will greatly affect the computation. We really have any clue how often we're getting paid off when we hit? We really have any clue how often we lose our stack when we hit? Or how much FE we really have when we push a draw?

GgoodluckthoG

I kinda half agree here. The math definitely gets murkier as you add more branches to the decision-tree. However, I think you can work things out from a 1,000 foot view and see which way the wind is blowing.

Here we've made some EXTREMELY generous assumption in order to come up with $0.61.

I don't think the wind is blowing in our direction. To get to that miniscule profit average, we need a "weak-tight" V to c-bet 3 people with air, on a wet flop, a ton of the time.

We also need to be break-even or better from the flop in situations where we don't flop a made monster, or 12+ out draw. I simply don't see how that's possible. Cheese believes he can play this weak, easily dominated, often outdrawn, un-made hand from out of position, against 3 other people, with an SPR under 5, and make a profit. Once again, we can do the sophisticated math here, but the superficial calculations (SPR chief among them) clearly indicate that this is -EV. The villain doesn't have enough money behind. It's going to be FAR too easy for us to commit our stack as a significant underdog.

It's trivial to play it break even in the situations where we don't flop a monster hand or draw. Just check/fold.

Fixed your post

If your best argument for calling is "I've got a set of bold assumptions that mathematically adds up to sixty one friggen cents in the absolute best of circumstances.", then it's a fold pre.

No, it isn't, and I don't find the assumptions to be bold or best-case. We're not really going anywhere with this argument. I'm glad you did the calculation. If you still don't buy it, that's fine. At least we did some math and thought about the scenario.

I'm beyond late to the game here, but I've never seen a weak-tight opponent at the lowest stakes 4-bet light (not sure if I've even seen many 3-bet light), so I'm a bit confused by the player description unless the 4bet light hand was just a fluke.

That said, put me in the fold pre camp, though I don't think calling is awful or lighting money on fire or criminal or whatever the jargon is. We basically hit what must be a top 5% flop for us and we still are in a borderline situation. That should inform all of us about the implied odds truly necessary to be playing sc's OOP.

lol I would defend this hand in a tournament where I can't fill my stack back up, and here we're advocating not defending this to a single raise? You guys are nuts. Our hand plays very clearly, I don't even need to show math to know this is a call preflop.

SPR of 5 means nothing. What are your personal SPR ranges? It's simply a preflop metric to evaluate being committed to the pot.

At my local 1/3 game this range posted above:

"AJ, QQ+, 88-TT, JJ, 77 (not sure if he raises pre, but let's include it), KsQs, AsQs, AsKs, and let's take 15 combos of other hands like AK/AQ/KQ that he could be bet/folding."

is still EXTREMELY tight. Maybe you guys play against a bunch of regs, but if I even flop a pair of 10's in this spot, I can donk lead for half pot and get called by a single overcard, second pair, third pair, two overcards, an underpair, etc.

Advocating folding this in a game like 1/3 is bananas.

Just for fun.....show the math...one time.
Maybe you'll learn something

False

Already asked and answered.

And what is the metric telling you? What should the metric be with T9s?

At my local 1/3 game this range posted above:

Uhhhhh no. This range was given in reference to V's c-bet range, not his whole PFR range. C-betting 88 on J72ss into 3 people, with a short stack, is the OPPOSITE of tight.

I don't even know what to say to this. You must be a millionaire then right?

Enjoy playing min-stakes forever sir!

[QUOTE=integratyper777;54019817Advocating folding this in a game like 1/3 is bananas.[/QUOTE]

I used to think like this before I learned to play

bright and shiny oh look suited connectors OOP for a raise

BRIGHT AND SHINY LETS TORCH MONEY

1. Go plug in 9Ts in a 4-5 way pot against the average LLSNL opening and flatting range. We will have about as much equity as anyone else plus or minus a few percent.

2. People play all sorts of trash and we will dominate hands like T7 about as often as we are dominated by KT.

3. People are terrible and we can exploit them post flop.

4. When I notice you are folding pretty much every hand you will have zero board coverage. If the board is 5-7-8 is your entire flop continue range going to be sets?

There are some games and stack depths where I’ll dump it pre but continuing is pretty standard...

I also can’t remember the last time I played an 8 hour session where someone who I would otherwise describe as reasonably passive didn’t suicide cbet AK or 99/TT into 3-5 people on this type of board. They had a strong hand preflop and to them that’s all that matters, they are just gonna bet. I saw someone today who had been playing tight absolutely bomb it with JJ into 3 people on K87 and then show after everyone folded.

so we are behind every example you listed
does this mean its ok for us to loosen up so much OOP that we are now playing EXACTLY as the FISHIES DO?

sure I get it , your bored it looks pretty lets see a flop; it's only money.

so add up all the times you whiff the flop and fold or bomb the flop, get called and lose. there's that new set of golf clubs you been eyeing sitting in someone- elses' closet

you guys should take a break from posting. I don´t believe trashing people just to persist in one´s stance adds much to your overall happyness.

C'mon man, how hard is it to actually do this calculation rather than pull it your ass? Please put it back in your ass, and actually do the math. We're in a 4-way pot with less than 1/5 of the equity.

What about that do you like??

Where are you getting this? How hard is it to do the damn math man? We're dominated by AT, KT, QT, JT, TT, 99, A9, K9, Q9, J9, T9. That's 114 combos that can dominate us. For us to dominate our opponents equally as often, they would have to be playing all combos of T8, T7, T6, T5, T4, 98, 97, 96, 95, plus half the combos of either T3 or 94.

No you can't. This is a myth. You're not good enough. You don't have the ability. You don't have enough skill. Your quality of play is not sufficient. I'm not saying that to be insulting. I'm saying it because when the SPR is under 5, your cards matter and your skill really doesn't.

First of all, how does this follow with your #3 above. You say players are terrible, and now you're worried about them getting a read on our tight tendencies when short-stacked from the SB? FOH.

None of this matters when we're playing short stacked. In a deeper stacked game, (>150BB's eff), we're raising with this hand pre-flop. So we'll be giving our astute opponents all kinds of 'board coverage' to think about.

You know what else seems to be "standard" in this game? Losing money!

Q: At what stack depth do you dump this hand? You think 80BB's is enough to get busy from out of position, multi-way, without initiative, with an easily dominated hand.

What are you saying here? We gotta play trash because this might be the one hand that a V goes bonkers with AQ? We gotta be ready to hero call with second-pair/****-kicker?