Quote:
Originally Posted by ZuneIt
How do we deduce by the action otf that someone has a higher flush draw?
I'm not saying we know 100% that we are not up against a higher flush draw. What I'm saying is:
Scenario A
Hero checks flop, PF Raiser bets flop, other two players pass. I now think the chances of PF Raiser having better flush draw are low (say ~10% or less). I'm now comfortable about c/r'ing flop. A lot of the time he'll fold (~40% from your own earlier analysis?) and a lot of the time he'll call but H will have about 45% equity. Occasionally V can have better flush draw but even then H can spike a gutshot or a T or 9 sometimes while avoiding the 7 remaining spades (H might have about 25-30% equity in that spot which isn't a disaster, and it's only happening let's say <10% of times).
Scenario B
Hero checks flop, PF Raiser bets flop, another player now raises. I will usually fold in this spot as I think it's just too likely that one of the other players has a higher flush draw and I could be Getting-It-In vs that and a strong made hand.
Scenario C
Hero checks flop, PF Raiser bets flop, another player calls. I probably fold a lot of the times now this happens for similar reasons as for Scen B. I might call a fraction of the time but not put any more $ in pot on turn unless turn comes a non-spade 8. If a spade turn is checked around then I might put out a small blocker bet on river but then fold to any decent sized raise. (I'm happy to have these lines critiqued if you'd like to, but they are a sideline to the main point at issue here. I'm sure some people will hate the idea of folding the flop in Scens B and C "... why the heck would you call pre if you are going to fold on that flop etc" but I'm ok with folding in those scens).
