I'm not going near 100% on the tell, although I've never seen someone do it without a monster at 1/2.
What you already invested doesn't come into play. You can't get that money back. Your equity moving forward is what you need to think about.
Maybe this guy is insane and it's a pure bluff, I don't know. But given that he has sets/flushes/AhKx and nothing else in his range...
Quote:
Originally Posted by maplestar
So you invest whopping $270 and fold to his last $60 river bet given 1:11 pot odds.I just cant see this is a profitable strategy in the long run vs an unknown player even if i know his pissed off tell means he might hold flush the majority of the time.
Why do you want to lose more than you need to when you are up against the flush. He priced you in to chase profitably if it's flush vs set right now. Shoving your last $58 is unnecessary and a losing proposition.
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Call the turn and shove if you boat otr, c/f if you don't boat/quad up otr:
20% of the time we boat/quad up and get paid off. So we'll get what's in the pot before we call that 2nd $100 plus the $58 V will call otr.
(.2)*(538) = $107.60
80% of the time we call the $100 and c/f otr.
(.8)*(-100) = -$80
EV = $27.60
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Shove ott:
80% of the time we don't get there otr and we lose $158
(.8)*(-158) = -$126.40
20% of the time we get there and take 538 that isn't in our stack right now
(.2)*(538) = $107.60
EV = -$18.80
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All predicated on him having a flush right now, which is definitely some of the time, definitely not all, I don't know if he's capable of min-raise bluffing, etc.
But peg him for the flush, and the highest EV move is calling and waiting.