you got to be kiddin to think you can bluff out tourist players when they hold AA at any point in the hand. thats the last thing you do. especially if the board pairs as now they just improved their hand to two pair in their mind.

no way can you really put someone on an exact hand so quickly after meeting them. only way is just to say they have a hand they really and its a big pair in their mind.
play your hand to milk them and in such a way that if you see you are beat. and they almost always show you when that happens, then you can fold.

if you blast them with chips they clam up and you never find out what they have until they check and call and show you the best hand.

That's a good point. It probably takes a more disciplined player than she to fold AA in that spot. Her scared-money vibe works in our favor, but we don't have enough info to count on a fold. But the question of whether we can include JJ in this range is still a valid one. That said, if we're relatively confident that JJ will call our $75 (however rarely it exists it her range), I can see that being a +EV bet. Pretty thin either way though. Checking back isn't an awful option.

^ If she is folding AA, it is still better to shove and take than try to get think value from JJ. I saw that OP didn't put JJ in the range. When I was reading the hand though, I didn't think V would fold AA to a shove and I constructed a range from EP that included JJ - those 2 things made me want to bet for value not shove. I don't know if they're 100% accurate and OP thought a little differently, but that's what I came up with.

And if you're not valuing yourself sometimes, you're not going for value often enough. Checking the river isn't great.

Her opening for $15 isn't enough to make me think she is trying to protect AA.

You and I might flat QQ+ UTG for a reraise.

If she is truly new she won't do that.

But if she is truly new she might like TT+ as much as QQ+ UTG.

Make it 40-45, fold to a four bet, otherwise you are probably good.

If there is no A on the flop, get it in.

I wait all night for KK+ some nights, when it comes MAYBE there is MUB but that's not why you sat down.

Shove river. (If she shows AA don't blame it OTR decision. Blame it on pre flop)

So make a mistake, then just to prove it's a mistake, hand over all our money later in the hand?

No. Shove is not to prove a mistake but to get max value from QQ and JJ. Shoving here is IMHO how to do that.
If shoving gets to fold out AA and KK that's another bonus.

The side comment about AA is to reiterate it is a mistake not to re-raise this villain pre flop.

playing a big pot in this spot is not a good idea.

So we expect a shove to get JJ and QQ to call, but KK and AA to fold? What alternative universe do you live in?

just as a tourist cant fold AA no mater what is out there. many aggressive players that came from the internet can not slow down with hands like kings.
they are used to playing with short stacks and havent adapted to deeper play.

I am not expecting a fold from KK or AA. In my post I said if it gets to fold out AA or KK it is an added bonus. Therefore it is a possibility. Not an expectation.

Hope that helps.

This pot should have been much bigger. If she is uber tight then you had the perfect opp to play perfectly against her range with a smallish 3 bet. And maximize your profit when she has QQ AK etc.

Check back river. If hero shoves he probably only get called if beat, the chance of getting AA to fold and the small chance of QQ calling isn't worth the shove. This is influenced by the fact that the villain bet both flop and turn. I'm putting a lot of AA in her range at that point and I don't expect that to fold a lot. However, if you think a shove does get a fold a decent percent of the time, then shoving is better.

A lot of this depends on villain's range and play style though and hero is going on very thin evidence here. After more thought, I think raising preflop to $40 is probably better. $40 will take it down a lot but more importantly removes the guesswork post flop. If villain shoves hero can easily fold, and if hero is just called then hero can be pretty confident of being ahead as long as an ace doesn't hit the flop.

What are you bluffing? AA? Any9? An old lady is never folding AA or a full house here. Very good chance she calls with JJ QQ

If she's calling with JJ+ then we shove always shove as there are twice as many hands we beat compared to hands we lose to (JJ/QQ vs AA)

Shoving river is correct play. Either she folds way too often and we win the pot like always or she calls too often and we beat over half her range (even if she calls with QQ+ only we are 50% to win)

You have two ways to play this hand against this specific villain. You can 3bet fold pre to 35 or 45 or so and bet fold three streets knowing she won't raise back at any time unless she feels she has the nuts OR you can flat pre and donk flop and bet fold three streets

Both have merits. Flatting pre gives you the chance to flop a set when she has AA since she can't 4bet you if you flat. It also insures you keep in her TT-QQ, AK. 3betting gives you a chance to win a bigger pot but you are never far ahead her range pre even with KK and she may find a fold post flop with QQ, JJ putting you on a bigger overpair

Results??

I think that check from the bb may have been out of fear of getting called by everyone that had already entered the pot. I would venture to guess that if only 1 or 2 players were in the pot when the action got to the villain, that they would have raised preflop. They more than likely don't have the competency to play AK oop vs. several opponents.

I couldn't agree more. I alluded to this in my first post. When they get to the river they are going to be good often.

The concern is that she's scared silly with the board double pairing and knows she should fold to our shove, but isn't able to separate herself from AA specifically. If she's folding JJ and QQ but calling with AA, we're in big trouble. It sounds silly, but think of how often we DEPEND on our villains' inabilities to fold AA. So that brings us to either betting something smaller that JJ+ will definitely call ($75-80), or simply checking back if we're certain her range is QQ+. A shove only makes sense if we know she can fold her entire range, including and ESPECIALLY AA, which is a foolish assumption to make at 1/2.

No a shove makes sense if she will fold her whole range OR we beat her calling range. It's really ridiculous to assume she will call with AA here but not QQ. They're basically the same hand relative to this board and based on your line. Yet you somehow soulread her for folding QQ but not AA.