MP($300): Goofy player with weird bet sizing. He is loose and weak.

HJ($800): I have not seen him before but get the feeling he is a serious thinking player. Casual dress shirt and sweater, graying hair, sunglasses on top of his head, plays with chips confidently, has that look of an observant player (head on a swivel, eyes watching all movements). Thus far he has been a little loose and limps a lot. Played aggressively otf on a monotone and once on a paired board. There are several fish at the table and I think he knows it (probably where he got his chips in a $200 max game).

Hero($375): On the button. HJ has seen me play aggressively so far. I raised the button a couple orbits ago and showed down QTo. I have not c-bet every time I preflop raised. Not much else to say except that he knows I am a regular because of the stream of "how you doin's?" from every Tom, Dick and Harry.

Hero has AQ on the button 8 handed.

Preflop: fold, MP calls $2, HJ calls, CO folds, Hero raises to $17, blinds fold, MP calls, HJ calls.

Flop(3 handed/$54-rake): J22
Check, check, Hero bets $35, fold, HJ calls.

Turn(Heads up/$124-$7=$117): 7
HJ bets $35, Hero ?

Can we raise here? How much makes sense?
If not, why not?!

Yeah, I like a raise here. I would definitely break that 100 barrier, say make it 135 all day? Maybe a touch more, although with him having to call 100 into a 270 pot, it definitely looks like you are trying to make clubs pay here. Good card for the double barrel.

Turn is a decent spot for a one stab bluff. Nothing got there on turn, you can represent JX or an over pair and the smallish donk bet looks a lot like a flush draw that wants to see river cheap. The raise will force flush draws out and a lot of medium strength hands will give up most of the time. If the bluff gets call or raised, give up. Most villains are going to have JJ/77 here a lot when they stick around.

What value range would you be raising here?

Aj maybe k j and qq+ and maybe clubs with overs.

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AJ,KJ,AA,KK,QQ,JJ,Ax.

In the moment I felt like this was a blocking bet. I am ahead of every flush draw except for AK and X7. By raising the turn I can take the pot away from X7 otr. I thought if I raise this turn I am repping exactly an overpair to the board. He might be able to read me for the nut flush draw.

If he thinks a large portion of my range was c-betting overs otf then what is he thinking with this little bet ott?

OK.

If you raise here, are you committing to the hand or are you considering a raise sizing that allows you to fold to a 3b?

Hero has $328 left and the pot is $152.

Seems like if we make a good raise, say to $135, then the new pot to Villain is $287 and its $100 to call, and Hero has $193 left.

If he 3b shoves, the final pot would be $773 and $193 to call, requiring only 24% equity. Pretty tough spot, IMO, since he can have FD only.

I guess I just don't see why we cant just flat here and see what he does on the river.

Assuming he's not an idiot, the flat should make him pretty uncomfortable since he's OOP.

Since we're just bluffing here, why not just wait until the river completes or misses the draws and then decide what to do?

Let's assume he has a hand like AJ or KJ. Do we really expect him to fold to our raise OTT? If it were me (as Villain), I'd flat the raise and bluff any J, 7, , 2, T, Q, 8.

I would much prefer a flat than a raise. The sizing commits you to the pot and Jx hand or overpair is ever folding. You turn your hand into a bluff catcher, and given descriptions I see no reason why V isn't going to put you in for your remaining ~150 OTR assuming he flats your raise. He can comfortably call off most bets because few 2x hands are making the PFR.

We have a bluff-catcher, drawing to an A or Q only to win it. Flat, use your position and don't bloat the pot with A high vs a loose aggressor that has you so covered.

Flat is fine if you want to go bluffcatcher route. I personally don't mind turning my hand into a bluff here against the described V. I'm not sure he is playing loose and aggressive vs us as described. I like to test anyone I peg as a "thinking" player at some point so I know whether or not to avoid him all night. This seems to be as good a place as any.

yes it seems like you are ahead of most of his range and flat/raise are both options...but the argument could be made to just muck to his weak donk and avoid confrontation vs a seemingly competent opponent with A high at a table with plenty of fish...also sets you up for future hands vs him IP when you have a value hand or more solid showdown value

I am not saying that's what I would do but I question whether that's what I should be doing in these situations at tables like this

Excellent points especially since this villain seems to limp a wide range. When I see a player that seems competent limp a wide range there is a flaw in my thinking. I forget that this player may be limping hands like AJ in this spot. My mind tends to automatically assign him weaker starting cards. Funny thing is that should make a deuce a little more likely in this case.

Seems to be good support for calling the turn.

Lets simplify this problem. Is this guy seriously felting top top v. you here? kj or qj?

If you bluff, do it now... dont flat, raiae river and get heroed by 99...

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This was my instinct at the table. Fold out a J, get value from flush draws.

Yeah, this is mostly a bluff, I would estimate actual equity as pretty close to 15-20 ish percent at best. The only real question is when we put 100 into 187 does V fold enough to at least bring us neutral EV, and truthfully, I think he folds much more than the 20% necessary to be 0 EV.

With all due respect to Lap and Truc, I think calling 35 into a 150 pot does not give us enough expressed odds (and I'm a little leery of adding ANY implieds here) to continue actually playing this hand. If I raise here, it's to end the hand. That's why I would start at 100, but if someone suggested to raise to 215 all day (180 raise into a 187 pot), I'm hip to that too. Whatever we think will move him off his hand (of course, the more we bet, the more often we need him to fold). The reason I'm ok with the 180 is I do think he folds more than 40% of his hands here.

You are going to call a turn raise OOP, then turn a middling strength range into a bluff to try get someone off a likely overpair with a low PSR in a 1/2 live game?

All you could credibly rep would be a J or a Flush, maybe 7cXc. Bluff an 8? Only one combo gets there (Tc9c), a Q or a 2 ???

Villian most likely has some Jx or a mid PP making a blocker bet IMO, raise turn and he probably folds, your hand looks a lot like an overpair. You aren't really deep enough to raise turn and then follow through with a river shove, so just make the turn sizing whatever you think is necessary for him to fold a PP or weak Jx. Could be $85, could be $110, heck maybe even shove (~250 to win ~150, he will fold enough).

If he calls turn, you probably have to check back the river, only made hand that folds now is a FD with the 7c. You beat his FD's by checking, plus you have your overcards to hit.

I don't like calling, he has too many weak one pair hands that beat you, and won't fold once you call the turn, you would have to know how he will likely play on various rivers to call profitably IMO.

LMFAO...

In the first part of this post you hate on my bluff line for villain.

In the end you say how you think hero should give up on the hand if villain calls your turn raise.

The funny thing is... AQo is no different then AA if villain bets the river.

I mean you have to check back the river, not that he is going to shove into you. If he shoves go with your read at the time.

Yes... I'm saying villain (I) lead the river given certain rivers.

If he's a competent player who limp-called PF, I'm heavily weighting his range on the turn to mid-PPs. Consequently, I like the idea of a turn raise-- but to an amount that allows us to fold to a shove.

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