If we're adding 99, then we have to keep all the combos of AK, IMO.

Board: Ad 2d 5h 9s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 32.576% 32.58% 00.00% 258 0.00 { AA, 99, AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 67.424% 67.42% 00.00% 534 0.00 { 2c2h }

And this is assuming he x/c the flop with 100% of his 99 combinations. If, for example, he folds 99 here 1/2 the time, then Hero's equity is even bigger.

But, I think this is AA and AK only. We only need 3 combos AK for this to be a call. This means that if Villain has AK, he need only play it this way 1/4 of the time (3/12), even if he plays AA this way 100% of the time (which I think is unlikely).

Snap call.

well no. He needs 3 or more combos of AK to make it a call. 2 combos is no go.

What is OMC?

Old man coffee

In my experience, huge overbet shoves by what I perceive to be unsophisticated players are usually crap like AK unimproved, TPTK, JJ, or the NFD. This is not to say it cannot be the nuts, or top set... it certainly can be. But I'm just saying I see this all the time and its not the huge strength people think it is at LLSNL.

Last week I picked off a huge overbet shove with 77 on an 884K turn when my heads up opponent x/shoved for almost $350 into a $100 pot. I tanked for about 2 minutes and finally called. While I was tanking, he moved all his chips, all $350 worth, into a "great wall of china" formation on the betting line in front of him. He turned over 43s, and the river bricked out. He then went into a 20 minute tirade about what a horrific call I had made, and how I should have tipped the dealer more.

IMO, these bets are not value bets. They are "go away" bets. If your bank roll can stand the variance, you can pick off these knuckleheads with surprising results.

I have to say, if I had 52 in this hand I have a very hard time folding here... I'd have to tank for quite a while and really deliberate on it. With a set... sorry, I cannot fold.

I'm not saying he never has AA here. I'm just saying its not my experience that AA isn't even the largest part of his range. Hell, for all we know he could have KK here and be trying to get Hero to fold a weak A.

But I'm a super donkey... what do I know?

Agreed. That's why I posted a 2nd pokerstove using just AKs as a quick and dirty mechanism for reducing the number of AK combos.

I honestly feel like I would just fold it. This old man has his chips racked up and is ready to book a win. I highly doubt that he is doing this with worse than bottom set. If he is.....oh well, good play. But he really is never bluffing.

Perhaps the bolded is hyperbole. Often 2 pair "is the same" as a set but I don't think this is one of those times. I wouldn't puke call but I would be a bit nauseous...lol

I sort of agree with Ike that villains shoving range should include AK/AQ before calling makes sense but I can see AK and maybe A9s (that may be a bit optmistic) showing up here a decent amount of the time.

Quicker than just selecting two combos? You can do that in pokerstove with like, two clicks fwiw.

Old man coffee. Basically slang for the geezer who comes in every day and donks off his stack. Just a more specific type of LP fish.

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Yeah... Of course, you're right... I just happened to do it a different way that time. Perhaps my way obscured the point a bit and was less efficient to the reader.

Anyway... bottom line, I agree that Villain needs 3 combos of AK for this to be a call. But this is only 1/4 of the available combos of AK, so I think its fine. If we needed Villain to have 10/12ths of the AK combos then its starting to become problematic.

LOL... right.

(Although, after I thought about what you're saying a bit: If I decided that Villain could have A2s or A5s here... then uke:. FWIW, I don't think Villain can have Aces-UP here...)

Played a lot of 1/2 against old guys, I've seen some play AA like this and some play AK like this.

Definitely could have 99 as well.

He has one of those 3 hands 99% of the time IMO.

Pretty gross, doubt I could fold. Combo wise its just so much more likely he has AK.

Why would he c/c the flop then? I mean don't get me wrong, I've seen people slowplay top pair before, but it takes a special kind of stupid.

Yeah he's def more likely to bet the AK. Guess he has AA or 99 then.

If he wasn't racking up his chips I'd still probably call, if you set over set me then congrats.

Seems to be pretty split on call or fold.

Results:

And it really is villain dependent. good hero fold eh.

Yeah this is pretty much what I said. I am honestly very surprised that so many people in this thread think THIS villain in THIS spot shows up with AK here more than once in a blue moon.

Again, his massive 4x pot overbet shove on the turn is a sign that he just wants the hand to end now. He doesn't care about getting more value. He just wants to lock up his solid day, take his money and go home.


So what do we know:
We know he raised to 8x from EP, a raise noticeably larger than any Hero had previously seen from him.

We know that his number one priority seems to be to prevent any possibility of his getting drawn out on and get out of there with his stack intact.

Despite that being his number one motivation, he clearly has a hand he considers strong enough that he's WILLING to risk his entire stack here.

And yet, despite the two previously stated points, he still DIDN'T BET OR RAISE THE FLOP.

He has a hand that's strong enough he's willing to go broke. In spite of that his main priority is not extracting max value, but ending the hand and preventing any possibility of getting drawn out on. And despite both of these two things he doesn't try to end it on the flop? On a semi-wet board, a board that is clearly threatening enough to his current priorities that he just shipped the turn rather than risk seeing another card.

All of these things can only mean that he has a hand so strong on the flop that he can afford to let a card come off. Or maybe it's so strong that he just can't bring himself to try to end it there, even though he wants desperately to take his winnings and go. AK isn't that strong. AK is way to vulnerable, especially in the mind of someone who clearly is skittish about being drawn out on.

I think to play the hand this way he definitely has to have a set or better. Even two pair either A) trys to end the hand on the flop if it's a hand that he considers strong enough that he's willing to risk his stack with it here, or B) doesn't shove the turn if it's a hand he doesn't consider strong enough he's willing to risk his stack with it here.

And of course the preflop and flop action allows us to nearly eliminate 34, 55 and 99, so I think this is one of those times that we can with near certainty put him on one specific hand.

looks like AA to me with that preflop raise and then checking flop

The first question to ask is whether this player type is bluffing here with more than 250BB deep? The answer is never. So all combinations of sets are in his range. Even a turned set with 9/9. If that is the case, bottom set is rarely good here. If you were only 100BB deep, I probably would find it hard to fold. But, at 250BB plus I just don't see bottom set being good here.

I would probably fold here you just don't see 75 year old OMC check/shove turn and rivers 275bbs deep without the nuts or close to it ever. His range is my experience in this spot is exclusively 99/AA. I don't know what i would do with 100bbs i would be hard pressed to fold with 55 but its defiantly not a snap call.

haven't read other posts but looks like AA to me. I wouldn't think he c/r AK type hands. Hands like that lead flop and turn strong.