Played this hand last weekend:


Hero: mid position ($800.00)
Hero has been catching cards all day, and been betting very aggressively. Villain has noticed this and called three streets fairly light about ten minutes ago.

Villain: Button ($500.00)
Villain is a solid player who is pretty tight. He is pretty conservative, but seems willing to bet in position if shown weakness, and puts out value bets pretty often, but almost never raises postflop.

Random: BB ($150.00)
Nobody special, standard bad player.


Preflop: Hero has J J.

One limper, hero raises to $15 (which has been his standard open at the table). Villain and Random call, limper folds.


Flop ($45 pot): T 6 5

Random checks, hero bets $40. Villain calls, Random folds.


Turn: ($125 pot): J

Hero bets $75. Villain calls.


River: ($275 pot): J

Hero ????


After calling on the flop, I was just certain that villain had an overpair here. TT is possible, but based on his physical demeanor, I considered it very unlikely.

So... what do I do on the river? Villain has about $350 left, and I think he likes his hand. I considered shoving, betting like $150, and checking, but I just could not decide what the best course was.

Runner runner quads is a mandatory shove vs. any thinking player at all

id bet more ott to make a shove more manageable on the river

i like overbetting here granted it is higher variance. it certainly looks more bluffy and if he has something like QQ he's unlikely to believe you to have a jack or TT. if he has TT, i dont think hes folding.

I'm not sure this is right but maybe shove to make it look weak? He's never folding a fh and I think he has TT, 66, and 55 a good amount of time as I feel he would play any sets like this. I think we can discount an overpair unless you think he's just flatting pre with QQ+.

Seriously how often will this situation happen? And what he said^^

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I'd think as played, the bottom of his range is A10, more likely 55,66,1010,qq, and throw in a 56s and 78s. If he has 56 or 78 your not getting anything else out of him worthwhile (unless you check and he bluffs it. Even then, its most likely only another 80 or so, and chances are he's surrendering anyway knowing your most likely not folding anything but the bluffiest part of your range if he bets less than 80.). A10 is probably good for a bare minimum of half psb, though more than likely if he went that far with it, he'd call a shove. Same logic if he has queens. I don't know how it is where your at, but in south florida 12nl, if theres a dry board like that on the flop, with a bet call and a turn bet call, 99% of vil are going all the way. If he has any of the sets, theres no reason for you to check since hes never folding a boat.

One last thing... a little trick I use if I want to extract with the nuts is never use the words "all in". 1-2 players can be psyched out by hearing things like 'all in' and '$300'. In your spot, i'd sit for 5 seconds or so, and slide 3 stacks in.

Thanks for the responses, guys.

In the hand, Hero checked the river like the fish that he is. Villain thought about it, counted out a bet of about $125 (I think), but backed off and checked. Villain showed QQ.

Oh well.

bigger ott
bet river

betting or calling isnt the right question. river sizing is tricky

I think checking river vs this villain is very bad. You said yourself he seems tight and conservative so why let him see a cheap showdown. Against a LAG I don't mind checking this river, but vs this villain I'm betting 200ish on the river.

Betting river is better than check-raising, villain is calling with any hands he's value betting (he's not calling a c/r with less than a boat), and he shouldn't really have many bluffs OTR unless he had like 78hh. Potting flop is a bit optimistic IDK. Villain is shoving boats for value, so you don't really need to worry about betting against that portion of his range. You should bet against his AT and over pair hands. Villain has 370 and there's 275 in the pot. I think about 160 but no less is good.

I really get the feeling from the description that villain isn't calling a shove with AT, looks like a turned J too much. It's possible hero had the NFD on the turn but I don't think villain would level himself into calling an overbet shove.
Surprised V didn't Vbet QQ though.

Yep checking was the worst option. You want to bet what you think he can call with the TOP of his range. Which in this case is probably his stack. You could also bet like 25-35 less than his stack so in his mind its a smaller bet but still requires him to put his last bit in anyway. This is so rare but you MUST get max value when you do hit it. I don't mind your play to this point but you should've bet big knowing that boats are calling and sometimes overpairs and that you aren't getting paid by anything else. So yeah, size your bet to the top of his range.

I think checking turn is better than betting. There are only 4 combos of 78s (hands that will check back), there are 3 combos of TT, 3 combos of 66, 3 combos of 55.

Hands that are checking back the turn:

78s (4 combos)
QTs (3 combos)
T9s (unsure he has this)
ATs (3 combos)
KTs (3 combos)

Hands that are better the turn:

55 (3 combo)
66 (3 combo)
TT (3 combo)
JTs (1 combo (tho on river turns to 0)


Also, he might bet the turn with the Txs hands since he doesn't want to give a free card to us if we have KQ/AK/AQ (although if we had KQ, I like a 2nd barrel here). So I think he would bet the turn here more than he would check behind.

Also, I think if he has a hand like 77-99, he is going to check the turn and he can hit a 2 outer for us to stack him.

Grunch

Why do you think that Villain has an over pair here when he flats pre-flop and then calls the flop? I would think that Tx or an under pair seem more likely. With that said, why did you bet so much OTF? Are you really trying to get someone with a ten to fold? Also, FWIW I wouldn't really consider a player who doesn't raise pre-flop to be very good.

As played, you could shove, but I would just go ahead and bet a normal amount, like $140-$160.

It might be a clue that you are susceptible to results oriented thinking considering you claim that you knew he had an over pair on the flop. I mean seriously, you are basically saying that he never has any other hand other than QQ when he calls a bet on a T56 rainbow board. This is assuming that he would raise pre with KK and AA, and well you have two jacks, so that hand seems pretty unlikely.

He called two big bets already, just shove. If he calls the shove half as often as he calls a $150 bet it's a better play.

Any FH is snap calling, an overpair might level themselves into thinking that you just got counterfeited with 2pr hand (56?).

Checking is the absolute worst option against a tight player that is likely to get MUBsy on us.

Either bet $150, or shove.

If you believe he has an overpair, the best line is to extract value with a half pot bet that forces him to call.

If you think he might have a boat, then you shove. Given the board, I think an overpair or weaker hand is far more likely, so I would value bet this.

175-200 seems like a good bet here, and expect to see AT.

Overjam might work against thinking player, but I just don't believe it would work here seeming how I don't think AT would call all three streets again thinking hero is three-barreling.

Checking is also an option to induce a bluff/value-bet, but I think AT would also check here.

Yeah, 175-200 seems good here.

+1 for a bigger turn bet to set up an easier river shove. You should stack all his boats anyway. Get max value from overpairs and draws.

@rbpro checking ott is likely a huge leak