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Originally Posted by eldiesel
Pot would be $190 ott and eff stacks would be $305. If you're confident in her only coming over the top ott with better, you can b/f $110. I understand you'd be putting in $205 and folding. I feel like the better/more experienced you are, the less often you will be constrained to the "Don't put in X% of your stacks and fold" rules.
It's not a rule, it's a guideline. Like "don't call $15 pre with 22 when your stack is $100." Sometimes it will work but most often it won't. Now pot is $203 minus rake (if you want to be exact), so eff stacks are 300, and you want to bet $110, making the pot ~$310. If she shoves for her remaining 300, pot will be $610, and you're going to fold for $190 more??
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I don't love that play but there are spots that come up that I don't love, and you need to do something. If she isn't thinking "Ah fuqq it" and shoving AQ/AJ/AXhh ott then this is the best play imo. But yes, the play is completely contingent on her turn raising range.
What about the HH makes you think that V won't say "ahh, **** it" and just call? If she has any combo draw/AXhh she is shipping, if she has any hand better than ours she is shipping, and who knows, she might just ship with AQ. Just because you "don't love a spot" doesn't mean you have to pile chips in the pot - it's ok to fold the best hand sometimes. If we fold on the flop this hand cost us $35.
There's a reason why cash game players love it when tournaments come to town. We hit an A with AK and we're pot committed for 200+ BB? All I'm saying is that there's a reason you don't see many $800 pots at 1/2 won by a top pair, especially when the money goes in on the turn.
You also completely ignored the last part of my post, which is what do we do on the river if she
does just call ott?