1/2NL AA UTG in a 6 way hand - wet flop - Live Low-stakes No Limit Poker Forum

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1/2NL AA UTG in a 6 way hand - wet flop

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01-22-2019 , 04:04 AM

dimeetrees

grinder

Join Date: May 2006 Posts: 626

Been sitting at the table for about 20-30 minutes and have raised several pots. I look down at AhAs UTG, raise to 15, get 5 callers. Flop comes Q92ddd. Whats your play?

No real reads on opponents aside that their calling ranges are pretty wide, game is 8 handed and playing pretty splashy. Effective stack is about $160 when the hand started, 2 players in the hand have us covered. Pot is $90 on flop (minus $5 rake/$2 high hand)

Last edited by dimeetrees; 01-22-2019 at 04:10 AM.

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01-22-2019 , 04:36 AM

DK Barrel

Concept of the Week author

Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 6,797

Bet 40, call a shove, x/f diamond turns, shove non-diamond turns

You're going to lose the hand often but there's still fat value to be had

Reason for small flop bet is to induce overcalls and raises. If we bet $70 we may fold out pairs that are crushed and draws that don't really have odds. Like, if Ad is out there it's not folding, if hands like Td9x and 8d8x peel too they're not affecting our equity much, it's basically dead money for us.

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01-22-2019 , 05:04 AM

KID777777

adept

Join Date: May 2018 Posts: 869

So shallow, splashy game, wide calling ranges means bet/shove is the way

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01-22-2019 , 10:41 AM

Hal N.

self-banned

Join Date: Jan 2019 Posts: 174

I would check the flop.

Gonna run some numbers...will be back with more...

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01-22-2019 , 11:02 AM

Hal N.

self-banned

Join Date: Jan 2019 Posts: 174

I am surprised to say that I have found a flop bet to be correct after running numbers.

I gave the five callers three different ranges from 24% up to 40%.

It’s certainly thin value though and I guess q or diamond turns are easy check folds.

Hats off to the people saying bet that flop. I was wrong in checking.

Anyone in favor of a limp in hopes to 3 bet pre given the aforementioned action?

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01-22-2019 , 12:35 PM

luz4ggro

grinder

Join Date: Nov 2016 Posts: 418

Check-raise really big on that flop. If you bet right out and get called, most turn cards will scare you, specially if you are OOP and you will be left blind. Most Qx, flush draws or even some straight draws might try to still the pot. If your oponent has a set of 22 or Q9 then gg... that s poker. Its unlikely for him to have 99 or QQ because most oponents might 3bet you preflop. Check raise shove is the best option here (unless you are really deep stacked)

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01-22-2019 , 01:09 PM

browni3141

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2015 Posts: 5,678

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hal N.

I'm curious what numbers you ran.

I'm checking and deciding based on action. Hoping it checks through so we can draw to a brick. Depending on their exact pre-flop ranges we are already behind about half the time.

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01-22-2019 , 01:14 PM

Hal N.

self-banned

Join Date: Jan 2019 Posts: 174

Quote:

Originally Posted by browni3141

Well I just used EnterraPokerCalculator app. I entered the info given and gave villains ranges. Three different runs based on smaller to larger ranges. AA is ahead...not by much but ...I think it was like 5-7%

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01-22-2019 , 01:51 PM

dimeetrees

grinder

Join Date: May 2006 Posts: 626

I just ran equity in pro poker tools against 5 players vs. my AA on that flop and it turns out I only have about 19% equity vs. 5 other players playing the top 20% of their hands. At the top 30% of their range equity goes up to 21%. I'm not sure if jamming is correct here.

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation

600,000 trials (Randomized)

board: Q

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
AhAs	21.22%	126,357	3,229
30%	15.72%	92,226	5,637
30%	15.86%	93,093	5,561
30%	15.78%	92,619	5,590
30%	15.70%	92,189	5,506
30%	15.71%	92,230	5,524

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01-22-2019 , 10:02 PM

#10

DK Barrel

Concept of the Week author

Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 6,797

Quote:

Originally Posted by dimeetrees

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation

600,000 trials (Randomized)

board: Q

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
AhAs	21.22%	126,357	3,229
30%	15.72%	92,226	5,637
30%	15.86%	93,093	5,561
30%	15.78%	92,619	5,590
30%	15.70%	92,189	5,506
30%	15.71%	92,230	5,524

Raw equity is the wrong tool for this spot. You need to figure out exactly what slice of a villain's range would fold to a $X bet, and your equity against the remaining slice.

Sure, in your scenario if you jam and get called 100% of the time it's not great (but still a few bb +ev), but you never get called 100% of the time. Some hands with 4 or 5 outs against you like KJ or 9x no diamond are always folding.

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