1/2nl: 55 faces 4bet preflop - Page 2 - Live Low-stakes No Limit Poker Forum

The odds of a flop coming without an A, K, Q or J are about 30%.

You need to multiply the chances of the four cards not coming to get the right odds; so (34/50) X (33/49) X (32/48) = 30.53%, so the chances that at least one of the four cards flops is 69.47%.

But we are assuming villain has AQ. Or Whatever. What they are doesn't matter, but it means there's only 14 cards J or higher that can come. And out of 48 not 52. So:

(34/48)*(33/47)*(32/46)
~34.6%

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05-20-2010 , 08:11 AM

#27

Jellurrrr

banned

Join Date: Mar 2010 Posts: 115

You had a read and it was the good one. He raised to 73 what is like 43% of your stack. If you thought your read was solid enough you had to ship it here imo. Otherwise if the A/K/Q/J fell, you folded and you lost a big part of your stack. So on the one side you wanted to take the risk, but on the other side you didn't. I think the call here was not very good. ship or fold

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05-20-2010 , 11:45 AM

#28

Hendricks433

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Nov 2004 Posts: 4,938

dont 3-bet 55 here.

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05-20-2010 , 11:53 AM

#29

nddst

The Situation

Join Date: Mar 2010 Posts: 1,164

Quote:

Originally Posted by KurtSF

Well...

Assuming he always has the exact hand he has. And assuming he always stacks off preflop and postflop.

Calling gets you EV = (-$50*.65)+($150*.35*.85)-($150*.35*.15).

Shoving gets you EV = ($150*.55)-($150*.45)

FYI...

$4.25
$15

Numbers do depend on whether you get him to push on the flop, or, whatever. If he is check folding his AQ, the shove is more profitable.

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05-20-2010 , 12:18 PM

#30

zunni74

old hand

Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 1,786

Quote:

Originally Posted by gobbledygeek

This is probably your worst move. Why are you explaining your poker reasoning to him / others at the table?

The only reason to care about what others think about you at the table (i.e. whether your a fish or not or whatever) is learning how you can take advantage of this image and exploit it.

This happens all the time though, people don't want to feel like they played a hand badly and when someone accuses you of something your automatic defense is to respond.

It actually takes calculated control to keep your mouth shut in these spots and is a skill like any other at the poker table.

I used to do the exact same thing but eventually realized that a) nobody cared, b) if they did care I gave away details that I am a thinking poker player. SO I stopped. OP will learn this too in time.

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05-20-2010 , 01:59 PM

#31

Drunken_Monk

enthusiast

Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 67

Quote:

Originally Posted by venice10

If you were semi-set mining, the micro FR players will build a larger than life sculpture of your avatar, which will be placed on their front lawns in effigy.

fyp

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05-20-2010 , 02:13 PM

#32

Man of Means

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2005 Posts: 5,104

maybe 3bet on rare occasions, but i hope you *usually* flat call preflop. use your position and implied odds rather than making a marginal play against a tight EP raiser that could lead to you being blown off the hand preflop.