Hero (covers, MP): MAWG. LAG. Running over the table.

V1 ($600 or so, BB): 20s WG. TAG, borderline nitty. Decent. Rec player, but probably solid win rate.

V2 ($75, UTG): 50s, Asian. Loose passive. Playing bingo-poker. Overplays whenever he thinks he has a big hand 100% of the time (i.e. overshoves pot).

V2 ($140, UTG+2): 40s, WG. Weak-Tight. Type of guy who plays a lot, thinks he's pretty good at poker but is actually pretty terrible and will not do anything to improve. Chases draws relentlessly. Prone to spazz though, and has occasional flareups of aggression. Has some history with Hero, though I doubt it makes any difference.

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After a couple limps, Hero opens JT in MP to $16. Villains listed above all call.

Flop ($60) 9 8 A

V1 thinks for a few seconds, while he double checks the stacks of V2 and V3, then donks out for $36.

V2 snap moves AI, $59.

V3 says, "lets gamble", and snap moves AI, $124.

Pot to Hero is $279, V1 has $548 left.

V2 and V3 both look excited, and eager to see the turn/river.

V1 looks calm, and is just casually looking at the board. He doesn't look overly excited. He looks comfortable.

Hero starts talking to the players...

To V2 and V3:
"Wow, you guys getting ready to go home already?"
etc...

To V1:
"You did that on purpose didn't you?"
"I don't think you can raise though, if I just call. Dealer? Can he raise? He can? Oh, my... Did you know you can still raise here?"

V1 ignores everything.

Hero does... ?

wow that sucks

there's like nothing left to win besides the direct pot odds. I can almost assure you V1 folded but we can't assume we have any implied odds from him.

let them "gamble gamble" not us

btw V3 is not gambling, when people say that it's usually a monster.

You have eight direct outs, which might not be clean or could chop. Just fold.

V1 has some idea where he is in this hand. If you call or raise he is only sticking around with two pair+ and 99/88 will make up a good part of his range. V3 can't have a monster draw so he probably has two pair+ also.

This is a situation where you wish you could get to the turn cheaply. With the top straight draw there are a lot of cards that improve your hand but you don't have the straight odds to stick around and V1 probably is not going to lose a lot of money. With all of the possible draws he will shut down on the turn a lot and give up to a big bet figuring somebody has him beat. You can't exploit that because your probably losing to one of the shoves. Your outs might be chops. Fold and move on.

I'd like to see a range analysis for each villain.

Then Hero's equity against that range when seeing 2 cards. IMO, if we call now, there's a good chance that V1 moves in and we'll be facing an even grosser spot.

of course he's allowed to raise

Easy to imagine V1 with the 88 or 99 set. Maybe a slightly slowplayed AK. Feels like your outs are all clean but susceptible to redraws.

Fun... I suppose. Consider your $16 invested as a ticket to watch the the rest from the sidelines. Hero folds

189/call is fun

I like this guy!

You have only invested 16. And you must hit 8 outs to win or runner runner flush. Even if a shove is plus EV it is never by much as your max equity is about 35%. Conversely there are lots of hands that are killing you right now. Supereasy fold.

Yeah, OP was posturing/fishing for information from V1.


as for the hand. As much as I hate raising pre with such a fun hand and getting such a juicy flop only to fold, I think we have to let this go. If V1 had called out of turn or something then we could call, but V1 raising again after we call would be a disaster.

How are our outs dirty? A Q or a 7 gives us the nuts.

Pre-flop, I just limp behind. You have two fishy limpers, so very best case is that you're in a $50 pot with effective stacks of $60 and $125 against people who aren't going to fold. You're going to need to hit to win, and right now you have J-high. If V2 is spewy, he'll make it easy to gii when you hit if you limp.

As played, I think you have to fold for the reason you identify - V1 has the option to raise still. 3 possibilities, V1 shoves, V1 folds or V1 calls. If you assume V1 is shoving, you'll end up having to call $584 to win $827, and you're not getting the 2:1 you need to bink your straight. If V1 is folding, you're just getting the odds to call, but it's not a great spot, since you're calling $124 to win $279, so you make $10-15 bucks. The only really good situation is where you call and V1 calls, since that both juices your direct odds and gives you additional implied odds. However, in that situation you may face a turn bet as well, so you may not see a river. It's also probably the least likely situation there given the lack of draws. V1 really should be shoving every made hand that he's willing to call with. If he's calling, it's probably with 88 or 99, so your odds are worse than they appear.

You are correct. Sorry, PLO on my brain.

However, even with eight clean outs that could lose to a better hand or chop, I'm still folding and very happy about it.

FWIW, I'm never really limping behind stuff like middling SC when I have at least one other deep stack at the table.

Maybe I limp occasionally. But as a rule, I'm opening for a raise whenever I'm over 200bb deep.

if we're gonna play it just raise it up pre. a lot better than limping or limp/calling

How nitty is V1? If we think he might fold everything but 99/88 if we raise here, then I'd probably click it back. Of course, if he's really nitty, his donking range might be heavily weighted towards sets in the first place. Probably just a sigh-fold spot.

seems like risking a lot to possibly create only a marginally profitable situation (V1 folds and we "draw" for correct odds).

I'd be interested to see some rough math on the EV of raising enough to commit ourselves to making a +EV call if V1 shoves, but it would be beyond my mathematical capabilities

Folding is slightly better than calling which are both miles ahead of raising.

Fold. Range analysis is a pointless guessing game in this spot. V1s stack size and ability to gii makes you continuing in the hand a bad option.

Lap, effective stacks are what matter (which you already know). With two short stacks already limping you are setting yourself up for a flop SPR between 1-3x depending on the villain (assuming everyone else folds but the limpers). That's not what you want to be doing with the nut speculative hand.

This would have been an awesome flop in a limped pot with massive IO's vs. BB.

Seriously OP? With a bet, raise and 3b shove in front of you, and the possibility of original donker coming over the top, how can you possibly call with your hand here? For the $59 shove, I'd snap call. But this is a trivial fold once a third guy goes in for $124. There's not even a FD out there. You're so crushed.

Full table. There are other 200bb+ deep stacks.

+1. Pretty easy fold. If the original bettor couldn't reraise, I'd consider calling to bink a straight or flush draw on the turn. You have about 30% equity, depending on how many of your outs are good. It's also possible one of the other players has JT and the best you can do is split. Your 30% equity assumes you get to the river with no more betting. With two players all-in, you can't semi-bluff the turn, eliminating a lot of the FE value from draws.

While it will be difficult to put everyone on a solid range, we can at least look at what our odds are with various hands.

Against A-broadway, we're a 66/34 underdog.
Against a set, we're a 73/27 underdog.
Against straight draws, we're ahead 62/38.

There are three pots. Pot one has $179 (if V1 plays and I think he will) and we are getting 3:1 to call to see the river. Pretty easy call if this was the only pot.

Pot two has $126 and we're getting 2:1. Probably break even to call.

Pot three has nothing yet. We're going to go heads up and be behind most likely with the majority of the money. The equity we have in the other pots doesn't add up to what we are behind potentially in the third. Fold.