H - $~900: prob seen as aggro (i dont know about tight, since i kept on getting hands like stupid aks, lol, and didnt slow play them pf).

V - ~$370: mid 20s? Asian female. Looks like she knows what she's doing, not your typical calling station. Pushed all in for 250 in a big pot otr when two players checked to her and i was pretty sure she was bluffing (she look relieved n tipped $2) and told one checker that they folded the best hand. She raised a few times but mostly on her phone and wasnt in too many pots.

Table - actiony.

Hand: I was dealt AA (right after a big hand where i called a pf shove from a known hi-stakes pit gambler for $118 pf with aks, got action 4 ways, 2 of which are all ins, checked it down and was good with ace high) in MP, utg limps, couple folds, I asked if it was straddled (just to make sure) and usually my raises have been 12-15, but i raised to 16.
Surprisingly, 4 people calls, 3 behind me, and 1 UTG.

Flop: ($~80) Jh Td 6h

Tbh i dont really like the flop. I lead out for 55 (which is not huge if you counted the pot, but looking at it at the time it's a strong bet). I wanted to proceed cautiously, as people stacks are getting deeper and i know they are coming after me (example- one guy floated 33s when i had ak on a64 flop and hit a set ott).

All the loose caller pf fold to V otb. She does this weird thing which she counts, restacks her chips, cuts them out in 25s, reorganizes them, and eventually raises to 270, with about another 70 or so behind. She didnt really do that before.

My first instinct is that she might have jacks, but then it seems unusual to her to be raising this way - 5x my bet! But to her i probably overplay my big hands so she could be trying to get value and induce a shove. Another thing i thought she could be tryig to signal that she has no fold equity so essentially shes going all in. Shes only been putting her stack at risk once before and think shes not in deep so i doubt shes taking on excessive risks.

I eventually stoved and found that if she was doing this with some kind of straight-flush combo draw, im at best coin flipping at about 51%. And that's if she doesnt already have a set or 2ps.

Generally i think your fold is fine. I mean, you got it 5 ways in a single raised pot to the flop with AA and the board pretty much smashes your opponents callingranges.

She is just dont doing this with AJ or KJ sitting almost 200 BB deep. If she does, that is happenning a very small percentage of the time.

Against two pairs or sets you are in horrible shape, and against combodraws you are flipping a coin.

I think folds like this is kind of stuff wich makes a really good player. Dont show her that you folded aces, i dont like that at all. Be confident in yourself that you made the correct fold, you dont need her or other players approval. Ok, maybe you had her slightly beat if she was on a big draw- but what so? 8 out of 10 times in this kind of spot i think your crushed, and that for me its good enough reason to confidently fold.

Why are you showing you fold Aces? That is asking to be played back at. Not the worse thing in the world but understand you might get some light 3bets etc coming at you.

Also at an "actiony" table with a straddle go $20-25 preflop unless you are expecting a 3 bet preflop. If 12-15 is normal $16 is pretty much the exact same thing.

I agree with the fold. This V is rarely bluffing here imo

I'm calling. She does this with enough hands that we beat to make it profitable IMO. You guys are giving her to tight of a range. You're read isn't very convincing either to make me think this is a fold. I stoved it and came up with 60/40.

Do you have the Ah?

Also the Baluga theorem deals with turn play. If she has such a strong hand why is she shoving? You say everyone folded to btn but what about UTG? He obv folded?

Good questions because if you have the A or hearts that significantly reduces the amount of draws she would do this with AK AQ of hearts. But the baluga Therom doesn't account for the Vs that are just flat out afraid to be drawn out on regardless if they have top set.

I still think it is a fold but this is all relavent info. The reason I think it's a fold is I am not convinced this V is ever pushing a draw this hard IMO. But the decision gets closer with the more info we receive.

Can't believe it took this many posts for these 2 things to be asked/stated.

Yes I had the Ah (sorry, was thinking of mentioning it in the op but forgot), it was something that crossed my mind, that it takes out the nut flush draw combos out. But still, i dont see her calling pf and making that move with JUST a straight draw, or JUST a king/queen high flush draw. For those of you guys advocating call, what kind of hand do you think we are ahead of here?

Fish Taco - what did you stove to get you 60/40? I did KQhh, Q9HH, and 89hh and it gave me 51/49ish (i use an equity calc app, not exactly stove.

Cxy123 - no, the pot wasnt straddled (sorry maybe i didnt make it obvious) thats why i opened to 16 (and was surprised at the calls because it was a strong raise)

As to Baluga, i think I was applying the general theory of not over playing one pair here in a large 5 way pot - can the idea of it be adapted to other situations? If not then I guess I shouldnt have brought up the theorem.

I think this is a fold. ****ty spot. You make your money with AA in these situations against calling stations or LAGGROs, but she seems fairly solid. She's never bluffing here. I think her value hands outnumber her draws.

As to showing, i did it one to 1) get reads of her hand for later purposes, and 2) it was a table i felt safe doing that at, no V was aggressive or good enough to take advantage of opponent's tendencies (wont bother you guys with the details but table is usually fit or fold)

I actually thought it might be good for my table image because ive been raising a lot (probably the "loosest" player at the table - when im only iso spec players or actually having a hand in LP) and was caught in a decent sized bluff recently. I usually never show/talk about my hands even when they are big folds. But here, I feel like people are more willing to enter the pot with me because Im perceived as so loose.

I guess this can be a side discussion: do you guys think that there is never anything to gain but only everything to lose when showing your hand? Sometimes people suggest showing a bluff early to build action, can the reverse ever be true?

This is a really close spot in my opinion.....i also think a better description of what your image is like to this villan is really important here......
You say at the top your image is pretty aggro.....aggro enough that she can be confident you will barrel turn?
Have you bet-folded flops before.....have you been c-betting alot.
Do you have a direct history with this particular villan...

My mind is always leaning towards a call/jam here simply because I c-bet (probably to much) and am always viewed as a bit of a lag-tard-wild gambley player......but I think in this spot if your more of a consistent tag/abc player then you should probably lean towards a fold.

Just FYI. It's probably more profitable for the average 2+2er to show bluffs. Folding/mucking big hands quietly and relatively quickly is normally the better approach.

On showing hands.......i never never ever do it......all it can do is provide information.....sometimes we could try and provide FALSE information.....but in my mind if you show a hand to give FALSE info you probably played the hand sub-optimaly....and regardless it will still provide villans with info on your pre-flop/earlier streets tendancys with certain hands.....

I think showing at some rare occasions can be +EV at a particular table. BUT, if your gonna do that i think it should be for the correct well thought reasons.

In this hand i personally get the feeling from what your writing that you are insecure of whether the fold was correct or not, and that you want approval from villain or the other players that it was a solid fold. If that really is the case, i believe those are not good reasons for showing the table that you folded aces.

I think there are some Pair+Flush Draws in her range. K10, Q10, 910 maybe even 810 of hearts. In addition to the ranges other people have already assigned to her.

grunch

preflop, I like a larger raise, particularly if you have a loose aggressive image - I'd go 20-22, potentially more based on table dynamics

on the flop, no rational villain would bet this much with a set of jacks or tens. they'd either flat and look to raise your turn bet or raise to 140-170 range. now it's 1/2 where we have to be careful about making assumptions of rationality but given your read that she knows what she is doing and is potentially capable of bluffing, so IMO her most likely hand is a combo draw or pair + FD type hand

her bet size means you're playing for stacks and yes, committing 185bb by the flop with an overpair is a bit yukky but ...you haz aces and there's a good chance you're flipping here

there's 400 in the pot already and if you shove, you will need 300 more to win a 1k pot.

I probably shove

Is that a situation good enough that we want to get into, flipping for almost 200 BB each? When we cheaply can say no thank you?

I am just asking. For me that is a high variance play that i sort of try to avoid, if possible. Good chance we are flipping, and good chance we are miles behind. Doesent sound very attracting to me really.

Get it in. I think V's range is wider than we expect, and her line looks bluffy/spewy, opposed to value. I would not be surprised to see KQo or AJ show up here, along with combo draws.

it's a brilliant situation when you're getting significantly better than 50/50 odds on your 'flip'.

there's 135 in the pot already and villain has bet 270, effectively calling our 55 and putting in 215 more.

So to call, we need to put 215 into a pot that is already 405. Given we're playing for stacks we will shove and villain will call the extra 80 she has left, meaning in effect we need to put in 295 more to win 495.

so if we believe we're flipping, betting 295 to win an additional 495 is a good decision.

of course we may well also be up against j10, an occasional set (which I believe is highly unlikely) and potentially (please God AJ) but if the majority of villain's range is flush/straight/combo/pair + draws then we're getting the right odds here

Only flushes? Never a set, 2pair, pair + fd?

At 1/2, it's not difficult getting paid off with made hands. Even if you show bluffs, not many people will get "fed up" and play back at you. I show made hands, so the rare times I try to steal a pot I'm more likely to get away with it.

But the problem with this is 50/50 is the most optimistic situation. We could very well be more like 10%-25%. And as I've stated earlier I'm not convinced this V is doing this with draws nearly often enough for it to be 50/50

Understand, just find it hard to believe we can put this villain, with the reads we have on a set.

She seems capable of semi bluffing and also if bet sizing a set properly.

When you factor in this and also hero's aggressive image, I think we have to discount sets significantly and add lots of weight to draws, combos

Just got off work, stoves says AhAx vs a range of KQh, Q8h, Q9h, J10s and off suit, JJ, 1010, 66 is 27%. Not sure exactly what I are ranging her at but I say this is around the most likely range V would have. Obviously it's debatable, but I still say its a fold. I don't think we can just assume V is capable of pushing lots of 10h+xh flush draws. Especially when we hold the A or hearts.

your range is a lot tighter than mine - I'd also want to include AJ, KJ, non FD kQ/Q9/98, as well as K10hh

I'd also discount the weight of the sets in there - I really think this bet sizing is by a villain wanting hero to fold