History:

V - $360 (and in for at least a dime) - a dealer at another casino (tells everyone this as she thinks it makes her cool). Sucks at poker but blaming her luck for how much she is down.

Saw her overlimp AKo, flat call QQ to a cutoff raise from an aggro drunk but good player and then openfold in disgust when flop came ace high (aggro showed J 10s and we lolled).

Just won a large pot when she limp shoved AJo for some immense amount and beat KK

H - covers (~$900) - running like jesus christ himself. Last orbit raised 5 limpers with 78s, flopped a straight and got it all in vs an overlimp-called KK. Couple orbits previous flopped a set of 8s on A 8 3 and ended up stacking 2 shorties when they couldn't fold their AQ/A10. See? Running like god.


3 limps, hero raises QJ to $16 from the button, V calls in MP, other limpers fold.


Flop (~$34) - QJ5

V checks, H bets $26, V Calls

Turn (~$84) - 5

V checks, H bets $68, V calls.

River (~$220) - 9

V insta-bets $125


Call? Jam? Fold?

I crying call here, but expect a straight or a 5 most of the time. She just seems so button clicky that I think there's Q9 and J9 in her range to make it a call.

Q9 and J9 are bluff catchers for V in this spot.

Though action still makes no sense, I would call.

Actually I think the hand that's most likely to show up is 99.

Not gonna post results yet obv, but going to add in that I actually tanked for a loooooooooong time on this. I'm not a big tanker, but I just couldn't get inside her button mashing head at all.

Against a player who is this passive/bad, we should just fold to this. Yeah it's just a half pot bet, but $125 is a BIG bet to most players, and a big half pot bet on the river is the nuts approximately always. We see KT that got there the vast majority of the time.

Sure, she frustration-spazzed AJ for all the chips earlier, but this is no frustration-spazz bet. This is a for real value bet, a big one, and it's coming from a passive player after the most common draw completed when she was check/calling the whole way.

I don't think we see worse two pairs often enough to call here. Bet-sizing/previous street actions make it look exactly like KT. She isn't leveling us. I believe her story.

You played this hand well OP. Good bet-sizing on the flop and turn. If we folded to this river bet, we played it perfectly imo.

Since RP took 99 I'll take KT.

Funny thing is that she might turn KT into bluff catcher on a paired board.

After the QQ hand I don't see her getting to the river with 99.

Seems like a pretty standard call against a bad player who could show up with all sorts of nonsense.

Don't think raising is a very good idea.

I can't give V credit for being this sophisticated.

Has nothing to do with sophistication...

RP, I don't get why you say the action "makes no sense." A passive player check-calls two streets then makes a big river bet when the draw comes in. Haven't we all seen this before? KT makes 100% perfect sense and is the vast majority of her range here.

She may call the flop with 99, but for most of these players our turn bet will convince them we don't have AK and they will fold 99. Getting to the river here very rarely; I'd give her way less than 1 combo of 99 and ignore it.

(rest of the post is not directed at RP in particular)

She can have QQ, JJ, 55 here for lol 1 combo each. She probably puts in an awesome check-raise somewhere so they can be discounted to like 1 combo all together.

She won't bet the river like this with QJ, J9, Q9. She will check/call to collect another bet from AK and cut her losses against AA, KK, KT, QJ, sets etc.

She might play a 5 like this occasionally. We can put a few 5s in her range. She sometimes check/calls the river with those in case we have a straight, but whatever.

Does she turn T9 into a $125 bluff here? No.

She has all 16 combos of KT not discounted. She has some 5s in her range and 1 combo of fullhouses/quads. She has these hands which beat us well over 75% of the time, which makes this a fold.

We need to win this hand 25% of the time. What do we beat? Occasional spazz I guess. But there isn't enough spazz to outweigh 16 combos of KT. And this $125 river bet is not a spazz. Nor is it a blocking bet with a worse hand (it's too big for that).

LOL.

These donks have super narrow betting range on river because they're so afraid of not reaching showdown with possible winner, so their betting range is literally nuts or nothing.

And because 99 is likely to fold prior to river, it doesn't make any sense...

Considering how nervous she played her queens would she call two streets for a gutshot (K10)? would she call two streets with 3rd pair (9-9) and would she limp call 16 with a five pre?? (A-5s)

Now consider how she overplayed her AJ could she be over valuing top pair (AQ) (value bet/stopper bet)? Would she limp call pre with (Q9s) overvaluing her two pair??

Now consider most people only post when they lose I reckoned she flopped a set turned a house and doubled up when you raised the river.

I'd call the river though unless I was more familiar with her.

Dude, I 100% agree with this. You were being sarcastic?

She flatted QQ and folded it to an aggro on an A-high board. Overlimped AK. Absurdly passive, weak actions so far. We have not seen her bluff ever. Now she's making a big half-pot bet on the river.

She probably doesn't have 99 because of the way she played QQ to an overcard earlier. I don't understand why you are weighing her range to one of the 3 combos of 99 rather than one of the 16 combos of KT. I think that 99 is likely to fold the turn or the flop due to the two overcards (consider how she played QQ earlier). KT is unlikely to fold the flop or turn because it's open ended. Does this convince you of anything RP? If not, can you explain your reasons for putting her on 99 rather than KT.

(Not that it really matters; we can give her a combo of 99 -- or all 3 if we wish -- and we still lose to it. )

I'm being totally sincere here and not trying to attack you; I just think your thoughts were pretty far from the mark and I'm trying to generate some discussion. I actually think this hand is very straightforward and obvious. I don't understand why other people are mystified by it, and I would like to hear your reasons (any of you).

Isn't her hand face-up as one of the 16 combos KT? I think the river bet-size makes this super obvious.

This is an honest question: what do we beat here?

Ok K10 is up and down not gutshot makes this more obvious to be a k10. Probably a fold.

I am calling because she's a bad fish and the money is not leaving the pool, like ever.

None of the regs would play with me if I fold more often (I play in a small pool) LOL.

A5 for me

This is an easy fold for me. Passive players aren´t even donking out here with AQ. Besides KT, a 5, an unlikely boat, she has AA,KK a lot here. No way are we good 25% of the time. Anyone who can read the board can see that Q9 and J9 got counterfitted.

These type of players are usually pretty easy to read. I would definitely tank for a bit and do some angling. If you tell her your cards and let her know that Q9,J9,AQ is no good, and she holds those cards, she´s gonna get flustered.

Results:

I think it over and cry call. I lose to 99 and my head explodes I was expecting a 5 or KT if beat (reason for calling were same as Garick's - button mashy enough to show up with Q9 or J9 or even like AQ. She's obviously never bluffing but I believed her bad enough to be valueowning herself.

Ended up seat changing to her direct left and bossed her the rest of night.


I have NO IDEA why she would flat QQ then fold on an A high flop to one bet but call two streets with 99 here, but she did.

Interesting that some of the more respected posters differ in opinion here, makes me feel better. After the hand I discussed with some friends and they said it looks so bizarre and valuey it's a fold, I am inclined to agree now.

God I am good.

Folding here is pretty bad. The fact that she called down with 99, you already made money, even though you lost...if that makes any sense.

FWIW, because she was shown a bluff with QQ, it was the reason why I thought she would call down with 99.

OP, it's a fold, but I really can't fault a crying call at 3:1. V's can show up with the weirdest hands here where they are just spazzing out because they don't know what else to do... like QT, T9, etc. That said, KT is a whopping 16 combos, and half pot is a meaty bet for V, which suggest value. Further, I can be a ****ing river station, which I'm working on. Getting 2 outted isn't a great feeling, and when it happens, it feels like it's always happening, but at least you can rest easy knowing it's actually only happening 4-5% of the time.

Definitely makes sense.

Fwiw 2 orbits later I get KK in a button straddled (to $10) pot (this is Planet Hollywood in Vegas where that **** is allowed) and raise the straddle to $27 and end up getting three huge streets on a scary board leaving my stack at over $1100.

This hilariously made the V in question refer to me as the 'chip leader' for the rest of the night.

What's actually helping me rest easy is the slight difference of opinion here but slanted to a fold, makes me feel less of a fish.