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1/2 Waking Up On The Turn 1/2 Waking Up On The Turn

09-27-2014 , 06:50 PM
I've been at the table for only about half an hour, so I don't have much of a read. Villain has shown down one hand so far: can't remember if he opened preflop or called a raise, but he bet an A-x-x flop with AJ, bet the J turn, and bet a blank river and got 3 streets vs a weak passive player's worse ace. Otherwise he seems reasonably tight preflop, not playing a ton of hands.

I start with $340, Villain covers.

BTN straddles to $5, one call, Villain calls out of BB. I make it $25 with AKo, 2 calls, Villain calls.

(Pot $110) Flop K-Q-T rainbow. Villain checks to me, I bet $50, only Villain calls.

People at this game are on the tight/passive side vs. flop c-bets. I don't see the need to bet more and lower the SPR. I think I could have even bet less, as I think people would continue or fold the same ranges vs. a $35-40 bet here. Either way I'm not sure about my sizing.

(Pot $205) Turn 8, putting 2 hearts out. Villain wakes up and leads $90 into me.

I have about $265 behind facing this bet.

I'm having a tough time putting him on a range. I think that he can have just about all the 2 pair combos, and straights. Sets seem unlikely, I think he would have raised the straddle with TT+. But he might also have all the pair + draws, or maybe even turned draws, and he'd be betting to set a price for his draws. Whatever it is, I think he's never bet/folding, so if I shove he's probably calling his whole range.

I don't like any of my 3 options here.

What's your plan for the hand? Comments on all streets appreciated.
1/2 Waking Up On The Turn Quote
09-27-2014 , 07:42 PM
fold....
1/2 Waking Up On The Turn Quote
09-27-2014 , 08:00 PM
I probably puke fold here.

You raised pre and cbet a Broadway board into 3 players and he doesn't seem to care after a meaningless card hit the turn. If you call turn, you will almost certainly face a river bet that you can't comfortably call unless the river is a J.

It's tough to imagine a hand that beat you on the flop that doesn't raise but people play weird.

Btw, did you plan to b/f the flop?
1/2 Waking Up On The Turn Quote
09-27-2014 , 09:15 PM
"I don't like any of my three options here" -- good instincts imo. If your instincts are correct, that means we should fold for 0 EV rather than raising or calling for likely negative EV.

Why might this be a negative EV spot? Well, this board really reeks for TPTK. He doesn't have sets here, but he has many two pairs and straights. He's sizing his bet for a half pot river shove. He "wakes up" when a flush draw appears, and players with strong hands like to defend them against flush draws. In other words, the signs point to a hand that has AK beat, and I believe you are correct in saying that he won't fold, so bluffing is out of the question.

It's theoretically possible that the villain is betting less than half the pot to set the price with a pair+straight draw. But ime, players don't "set the price" at $90 very often. Not at these stakes.

And just to add icing to the cake: folding here is not at all exploitable. On this board, we will be continuing with our stronger hands. We can have all sets, straights, and two pairs here. In fact, AK is near the bottom of our range after we cbet the flop into multiple players. If we call here, we are pretty much calling 100% of hands in this spot, and that is exploitable.
1/2 Waking Up On The Turn Quote
09-28-2014 , 09:44 AM
If you're getting 3 callers pre-flop, you might try $30 or $35 to thin the field.

I'd bet more on the flop. Since you've only been at the table a short time, no one is going to have a bet sizing tell on you. I'd bet more like $80 to get more value on what figures to be the best hand a lot.

The flop hit the hell out of our pre-flop raising range. If V is competent enough to know this, he's not leading anything that doesn't beat AK. About the best we could hope to be up against is KJ for the pair/draw combo. Even that has decent equity against us.

I think this is an easy fold against anyone who doesn't play a lot of hands.
1/2 Waking Up On The Turn Quote
09-28-2014 , 09:57 AM
Given the erratic play, we can minimize the chances of a bluff. He would have c/r the turn, not made a weak donk bet. Therefore, the odds are low he'd bet out TP+SD. He'd look to call another small bet, not donk. Nor is he betting K9 or worse.

This looks like 2 pair. I'd fold.
1/2 Waking Up On The Turn Quote

      
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