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Old 01-31-2016, 11:26 AM   #1
namzer
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1/2 villain's line doesnt add up, how often is he bluffing here?

Reads on villain: Young persian guy just came from broken table. Loose preflop, limp calls a lot pf oop. Positionally aware and raises from late position. Sort of weak tight post flop. Based on 30 mins of play. Decent player who has decent hand reading skills. Correctly guessed a few hands on the table before showdown. We are the 2 biggest stacks on table.

Hero's image: extremely tight pf, extremely aggressive postflop. Very positionally aware, most hands played are from late position with a decent pf raise followed by a high flop cbet rate. Have taken pots down on either flop or a double barrel on turn. Gone to showdown 2x, once with nuts and once with tptk. Overheard villain whisper to his friend that hero is a good player.

V-800
Hero-900

Folded to V on button who makes it 15. Sb calls. Hero in bb calls with QsQc.

(I feigned intention to 3bet but just called. Reason is bc table is aware that hero has only 3bet pf with aa, jj and kk.)

Flop is 9d-10s-Js.

Sb checks to hero who raises 25. V reraises to 60. Hero calls.

Turn is 5c. Hero checks. V raises 75. Hero calls

River is 3s. Hero checks to V who raises 250.

He's been repping at least 2 pair, a set, maybe a straight on 2 streets. Flush gets there on river and now he's repping the flush and liking the 3rd spade? Did his repping story just change? Would AsXs reraise the flop and refuse a free river card when checked to on turn and bet out on turn? Ive got the Qs so I dont see how he would have taken that line with something like Ks8s. How does he know I wasnt on the flush draw? How often is he bluffing here?

Last edited by namzer; 01-31-2016 at 11:37 AM.
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Old 01-31-2016, 01:10 PM   #2
dwannabe
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Re: 1/2 villain's line doesnt add up, how often is he bluffing here?

Where did SB go? Fold flop? Just trying to calc. pot to give a better answer.
Sometimes V's take weird lines tho and I think bet sizing often tells more than the line they take alone because many don't plan a hand out.

Edit: Re reading your post. There is no way they should know that's all you 3! with. (Hope you didn't show your other hands for free) You've only been to showdown twice once with the nuts and once with TPTK. Heads up with V I may choose to flat. But I doubt it. The SB being in there means I'm popping it up every time knowing V opens wide from btn.

Last edited by dwannabe; 01-31-2016 at 01:16 PM.
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Old 01-31-2016, 02:38 PM   #3
SwolyswoND
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Re: 1/2 villain's line doesnt add up, how often is he bluffing here?

All I want for 2016 is LLSNL to stop saying "raise" when it's a bet, and stop saying "reraise" when it's a raise.
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Old 01-31-2016, 03:00 PM   #4
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Re: 1/2 villain's line doesnt add up, how often is he bluffing here?

^+1
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Old 01-31-2016, 03:23 PM   #5
venice10
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Re: 1/2 villain's line doesnt add up, how often is he bluffing here?

I'd like to step back to pf. So are you trapping with QQ against a loose villain oop? To me, that's the biggest error in this hand. While you may have had AA, KK and JJ when you three bet, did all of these hands go to showdown and that's why the table knows? And even if the table knows, why does the villain know after only 30 minutes? If you're running that hot, I'd keep going.

So let's just say you decided that you're going to trap. Then the first thing you do is donk bet on the flop, letting the villain know you have something. You didn't even give him a chance to enter the trap. If he respects your play at all, he knows you don't have the straight or a set. He knows roughly what you have (TP, QQ or maybe KK). So he can play you perfectly.

By the time of the river, it really doesn't matter much. You can't beat a portion of his bluffing range, let alone a real hand. Fold.

If you called and won, you'll need to re-evaluate how "decent" a player he is.
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Old 01-31-2016, 03:41 PM   #6
Mr Sandbag
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Re: 1/2 villain's line doesnt add up, how often is he bluffing here?

Preflop is a huge mistake imo. Live players are bad. Even if you 3bet six times in an hour and showed down AA every time they'd still tag you as an aggressive player. That doesn't matter much in this hand though because villain is new to the table. If you heard him whisper to someone that you're a good player he's probably going to think you 3bet wider anyway.

Post flop, pretty easy fold given that you tagged villain "weak tight" post. Weak tight players don't triple barrel bluff, bet for thin value on the river with top pair, and would jump at the chance to check back river even with QQ+.
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Old 01-31-2016, 03:50 PM   #7
PFunkaliscious
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Re: 1/2 villain's line doesnt add up, how often is he bluffing here?

he is repping a flush and a combo draw the whole way. Doesn't really make sense that he bets the turn so small when he can have a free card after you check from up front, so that would be the only part o his play that is inconsistant. If he does have the flush, that turn bet that has zero FE is really really bad.
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Old 01-31-2016, 04:36 PM   #8
mtagliaf
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Re: 1/2 villain's line doesnt add up, how often is he bluffing here?

Another point regarding preflop - I find that even when my image is at its absolute nittiest, people at 1-2 still call my 3bets. "Let's crack those aces", I'm sure they're thinking.
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Old 01-31-2016, 04:59 PM   #9
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Re: 1/2 villain's line doesnt add up, how often is he bluffing here?

Don't slowplay QQ for any reason. If you're beat PF, get away from it. Otherwise, GII.

Don't play NLH 1/2 400bb deep. It's stupid.
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Old 01-31-2016, 05:10 PM   #10
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Re: 1/2 villain's line doesnt add up, how often is he bluffing here?

Quote:
Originally Posted by BadlyBeaten View Post
Don't play NLH 1/2 400bb deep. It's stupid.
Could you elaborate on this please?
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Old 01-31-2016, 05:33 PM   #11
namzer
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Re: 1/2 villain's line doesnt add up, how often is he bluffing here?

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Originally Posted by venice10 View Post
I'd like to step back to pf. So are you trapping with QQ against a loose villain oop? To me, that's the biggest error in this hand. While you may have had AA, KK and JJ when you three bet, did all of these hands go to showdown and that's why the table knows? And even if the table knows, why does the villain know after only 30 minutes? If you're running that hot, I'd keep going.

So let's just say you decided that you're going to trap. Then the first thing you do is donk bet on the flop, letting the villain know you have something. You didn't even give him a chance to enter the trap. If he respects your play at all, he knows you don't have the straight or a set. He knows roughly what you have (TP, QQ or maybe KK). So he can play you perfectly.

By the time of the river, it really doesn't matter much. You can't beat a portion of his bluffing range, let alone a real hand. Fold.

If you called and won, you'll need to re-evaluate how "decent" a player he is.
My pf 3bet hands all went to showdown. I think V was there for 1 or 2 of them.

After reflecting on the hand I've concluded that I made several key mistakes:
Mistake 1: not 3betting pf.
Mistake 2: Donk betting on flop that wet oop and not letting V fall into boob trap
Mistake 3:

I played my hand transparently and I think most of the time in these kind of spots I am probbably almost always beat. I folded the river. V shows 7h-2h, tricky bastard. He changed gears.

Last edited by namzer; 01-31-2016 at 05:41 PM.
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Old 01-31-2016, 05:57 PM   #12
Kebabkungen
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Re: 1/2 villain's line doesnt add up, how often is he bluffing here?

Quote:
Originally Posted by BadlyBeaten View Post
Don't slowplay QQ for any reason. If you're beat PF, get away from it. Otherwise, GII.

Don't play NLH 1/2 400bb deep. It's stupid.
Yea no doubt you'd think its stupid if you try to GII with QQ 400bb deep. If you know how to play, you can make so much money off bad players who are used to max 200bb stacks.

Just calling with QQ is ok oop this deep. If you 3b and get called, which V should do with most of his opening range this deep and with position, V can put you in very difficult spots.

As played, fold. Many players will b/f straights, sets, 2p here. If you really think hes FOS you should put him to the test with a river raise.
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Old 01-31-2016, 06:09 PM   #13
WereBeer
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Re: 1/2 villain's line doesnt add up, how often is he bluffing here?

I would much rather 3bet this, we have an excellent hand and should get value.
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Old 01-31-2016, 06:12 PM   #14
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Re: 1/2 villain's line doesnt add up, how often is he bluffing here?

Quote:
Originally Posted by mtagliaf View Post
Another point regarding preflop - I find that even when my image is at its absolute nittiest, people at 1-2 still call my 3bets. "Let's crack those aces", I'm sure they're thinking.
I have had people call off about 15% of their stack with the read that I have a premium hand, because their T7o or whatever might crack it.

Why slowplay with guys like that at the table?
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Old 01-31-2016, 06:28 PM   #15
FergusonCurly
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Re: 1/2 villain's line doesnt add up, how often is he bluffing here?

Call pre. Call flop. Call turn. Call river.

3betting QQ 400bb deep oop is pretty ambitious. We get value preflop sure, but we are risking out entire stack for 15bbs pre? We are giving implied odds to any two napkins to any reasonable opponent. This is especially true if we are never 3bet bluffing because it allows them to play perfect against us.

Donk flop is the dumbest thing you can do, but it's an easy call down now. We block ALL the straights and he is a button open he is wide as hell. Your hand looks like a damn flush draw so when he BOMBS river he either has the nut flush or nothing. but IF he has the nut flush he is likely checking the turn to not get check raised off his hand.

Nothing else makes sense from any reasonable villain (and OP's description leaned him towards not stupid at least) so it's an easy call down.

Think my favorite part of the hand is calling pre to keep pot smaller (I'm assuming?) then donk the flop so we can get raised and play a big pot OOP (which we were trying to avoid preflop). Amazing
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Old 01-31-2016, 07:18 PM   #16
dwannabe
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Re: 1/2 villain's line doesnt add up, how often is he bluffing here?

^How does betting more preflop raise IO for any two napkins. It doesn't. It's an inverse relationship.
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Old 01-31-2016, 08:18 PM   #17
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Re: 1/2 villain's line doesnt add up, how often is he bluffing here?

Quote:
Originally Posted by IslandGuy View Post
Could you elaborate on this please?
^ Um, because you're offering such good implied odds that your variance is way higher than it needs to be for your hourly expectation.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kebabkungen View Post
Yea no doubt you'd think its stupid if you try to GII with QQ 400bb deep. If you know how to play, you can make so much money off bad players who are used to max 200bb stacks.

Just calling with QQ is ok oop this deep. If you 3b and get called, which V should do with most of his opening range this deep and with position, V can put you in very difficult spots.

As played, fold. Many players will b/f straights, sets, 2p here. If you really think hes FOS you should put him to the test with a river raise.
^ If a non sequitur gets non sequitured then some other non sequitur can blah...
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Old 01-31-2016, 09:38 PM   #18
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Re: 1/2 villain's line doesnt add up, how often is he bluffing here?

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^ Um, because you're offering such good implied odds that your variance is way higher than it needs to be for your hourly expectation.

Not sure if serious.
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Old 01-31-2016, 09:55 PM   #19
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Re: 1/2 villain's line doesnt add up, how often is he bluffing here?

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Originally Posted by namzer View Post
Overheard villain whisper to his friend that hero is a good player.
Did you get his number for a booty call later?
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Old 01-31-2016, 09:57 PM   #20
Mr. Curious
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Re: 1/2 villain's line doesnt add up, how often is he bluffing here?

btw - the big river bet does seem fishy. Do you think he thinks you play a flopped straight the same way? If so, then it is a pretty clear fold since he's made his hand and wants max value for it. Otherwise, it seems reasonable to call the river over bet, (maybe this is too much book reading lately) but the saying is that if you're going to bluff, make it bigger instead of smaller and that river bet seems mighty out of place.
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Old 01-31-2016, 10:11 PM   #21
Kebabkungen
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Re: 1/2 villain's line doesnt add up, how often is he bluffing here?

Quote:
Originally Posted by BadlyBeaten View Post
^ Um, because you're offering such good implied odds that your variance is way higher than it needs to be for your hourly expectation.

^ If a non sequitur gets non sequitured then some other non sequitur can blah...
Stop trolling.
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Old 01-31-2016, 11:11 PM   #22
Mr Sandbag
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Re: 1/2 villain's line doesnt add up, how often is he bluffing here?

Quote:
Originally Posted by BadlyBeaten View Post
Don't play NLH 1/2 400bb deep. It's stupid.
If you're reading this thread, ignore the above advice at all costs.

Quote:
Originally Posted by BadlyBeaten View Post
^ Um, because you're offering such good implied odds that your variance is way higher than it needs to be for your hourly expectation.
wat
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Old 01-31-2016, 11:15 PM   #23
WereBeer
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Re: 1/2 villain's line doesnt add up, how often is he bluffing here?

Quote:
Originally Posted by FergusonCurly View Post
3betting QQ 400bb deep oop is pretty ambitious. We get value preflop sure, but we are risking out entire stack for 15bbs pre? We are giving implied odds to any two napkins to any reasonable opponent. This is especially true if we are never 3bet bluffing because it allows them to play perfect against us.
To the extent that these arguments hold water, they are just as true for AA. What exactly is your 3bet range in this situation?
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Old 02-01-2016, 12:12 AM   #24
wck117
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Re: 1/2 villain's line doesnt add up, how often is he bluffing here?

reading your description of yourself, then reading the hh it just doesn't add up. You aren't extremely aggressive in any way. You're a guy the v pegged as scared money, right or wrong.

3b pre 100% of the time.
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Old 02-01-2016, 01:09 AM   #25
philepistemer
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Re: 1/2 villain's line doesnt add up, how often is he bluffing here?

Villain is way more likely to have a flush than hero, and so he should be bombing this card very frequently.
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