Reads: Haven't seen many showdowns from him. He's been fairly loose preflop in opening. About an orbit ago, I 3-bet him with A8. He called OOP. Flop was Q Q K rainbow and flop went check/check. Turn was a king, he bet, I folded, he showed only one of his hole cards: a Queen.

He opens from UTG to $7 9-handed. I flat in the CO with 1010. SB and BB flat. Flop comes J76. He bets $15 into $28. I'm the only caller. Turn is the 10. He bets $25 into $58. I flat, to keep his bluffs in. River is the 4. He bets $40 into ~$108. He has about $125 behind and I cover.

Shove or flat?

Only things I'm worried about here is 89 or JJ, and that'd be a pretty small open utg for jacks, or for any really good hand. Not sure how often he c-bets into 4 ppl with an open ender, though without a decent read, who knows. I'd say unlikely. I think his range is weighted towards AJ, KJ, QJ.

We get paid by under sets, hopefully by tpgk, any bizarre two pairs (j10?) so I'd shove for value.

He's c-betting into 3 people, not 4. And there's no reason for him not to c-bet an open ender. And I agree there's a ton of J-X in his range, but doesn't any one pair Jack-X always fold to a river shove?

What connected cards does he open UTG with at a 9 handed table? 89? Not likely unless he is loose PF imo.

I think that this river is a value shove and even if he does have a Jx type hand that will always fold then that is fine too. I would imagine he is folding Jx to any raise, not just a shove.

As played shove river however turn is a raise for me virtually every time. He raised pre, bet into 3 players on a J high flop, and then bet the turn into you.. seems like he has something fairly strong. Might as well get some more $ in the pot now. Raise turn to 75-100, calling a shove, or if he flats shove most rivers and he'll crying call off the last $100 he has because the pot is too big.

I agree on this being a value shove, even if he folds at least we don't have to table our cards

Why are we not raising pre here IP (you said he is fairly loose PF so shovel more chips in, to isolate, since we're ahead of his range here).

I like raising turn as well to set up a river shove.

As played jam river IMO.

It's the 5th nuts actually. Only 89, JJ, 85, and 53 beat me. Of those, we can basically eliminate 85 and 53 since they're incredibly unlikely.

Against a range of JJ, 89, AJ, KJ, QQ-AA, 76s, J10, 77, and 66, is shoving really better than flatting?

EV of flatting, btw, is .72*$148 - .28*$40 = $95.8

Assuming he folds AA-QQ, KJ, AJ, and 67s to a shove...

Folding combos = 6*3 + 3 + 3 + 9 + 9 + 2 = 44
Calling combos = 3 + 3 + 3 + 4 + 12 =28
So he folds 44 / (44+28) = 61.11111% of the time.
He calls the remainder. When he calls, I am beat by 15 combos (3 combos of JJ + 12 combos of 89), or 53.6% of the time.

EV shove = .611111*$148 + .3888889(.536*-$165 + .464*$273)
= $90.4 + .388889($126.7 - $88.44) = +$105.3

So looks like EV call = +$95.8 and EV shove = +$105.3.

Yep, shoving is better.

Why even assume he folds AA-QQ, AJ, KJ, or two pair to a shove?

With the range of hands that beats us on the river, I can't see any reason why flatting would be an option. Even if shoving gets him to fold all hands that we beat, we still scoop the pot plus we don't have to table our hand, win/win.

So you 3b A8o as a bluff and later flat with TT to a small opening with a guy who is loose pre...

Does not compute. 3b pre, shove river as played

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This type of "5th nuts" is pretty damn safe. There's a giant range of hands that will pay off a shove here.

I was thinking this.. But anyway...

Pre I sometimes call sometimes raise so I'm ok with it.

I'm ok with flop call we have the best hand a lot of the time.

I am usually raising turn to get value from his draws and set up easy river shove. I prob make it like $65 or $75.

Hoping villain bluffs 3 barrels is wishful thinking unless we have solid reads. We need to get money in the pot vs the stronger part of his range.

I doubt this and as I said I am thinking how to get stacks in once we hit turn and he bets.

Shove river every time as played

3 bet pre, raise turn, shove river. put some money in the pot already??

EWIWT.

Raise the turn FFS. River is an obvious shove.

"Flat to keep his bluffs in"? You've called him on every street. How much more is he going to bluff into you? You should be seeking value from top pair type hands, not worrying ace-high is going to fold. A raise here makes the river shove easy. Get it in, Man.

wtf is this post? obv OP got coolerd by a bigger set, or maybe a straight, but come on man... against a loose agroo I would shove river every time and feel pretty good about it..
Also, 3bet pre.

River is a snap-shove. Shoulda raised turn actually. And btw...you 3-bet him pre with A8o in one hand, but then flat his raise pre with TT in another hand? A8o should be a fold, and TT should be a 3-bet heads up. You're all backwards. Also, c-bet the QQK flop. Idc if he had a Q this time.