Sunday night at Luxor. A few players have left and the action has quieted down a lot. Table is seven handed.

Villain is a white guy in his early twenties. He sat down two hands ago and folded one of them. No other reads. Starts with $200.

Hero has $700 in front of him. I've been playing a TAG game with VPIP/PFR of about 16/13 after 200 hands, but villain won't know that.

On to the hand:

Folds to hero OTB and I look down at A 9 and raise to $12. SB folds, villain calls in BB. $21 in pot after drop.

Villain checks in the dark.

Flop 9 7 4. Hero bets $16, villain raises to $45. Hero calls. $111 in pot.

When a young player c/r a flop this wet I think they can have draws in their range a decent percentage of the time. So I see his range as fairly wide. Sets and two pairs have me crushed, two spades higher than a nine have roughly 50/50 equity against me, while I'm ahead of A rag, OESDs, worse 9s. Is this a pretty standard call vs an unknown young player?

Turn A. Villain leads for $80. Hero ???

In game a question I pondered was whether me having two pair really changes much. The six possible combos of 97 now go from the loss column to the win column, but I'm not sure whether he even calls with all of those combos; if he calls with just 97s then I've only moved three combos from losses to wins. The big benefit I see from an ace showing up on the turn is that if he were playing a hand like A 8 then he would probably lead and call off his remaining $70 without hesitation.

So the two questions I have:

a) Which action do you take given the turn and villain's action?
b) How much benefit do we really have from turning two pair in this specific situation? In other words, should villain be so polarized between sets and draws at this point that TPTK was roughly equal to two pair anyway?

Don't raise so much pre.

Ship now.

Ship

There are times where we improve in absolute strength but not in relative strength. Most common is when we flop TP and turn trips vs a V who flopped a set and turned a boat or flopped the same TP but has better kicker the whole way. But here it matters. It doesn't matter in who is ahead too often, we were otf and still are, or we're up against sets and still are behind. But a big part of V's range is AXss, so he thinks he's ahead now with those hands, and he's committed himself, betting $80 of his ~$140 left ott.

If you're calling otf, it's to get ai on turns that are non-spade 2s, non-spade 3s, non-spade 4s, 9s, non-spade As. Any other card fills the flush or the straight or makes it a guess as to whether V hit 2pair with 9x. Not that any over card to the 9 I'd fold, but the first sentence cards I mentioned are definite ai cards.

Once we call the flop ck/raise, and hit a gin turn card for us (esp given that we don't have the A) this should be a fist pump gii. Ainec.

We are calling the flop because we range him for sets, flush draws, straight draws, combo draws, and two pair. The only hand that beats us now is sets. So, for the last $150 into the pot, when we already have $180 in there, seems pretty clear cut.

Board: 9s 7s 4h Ah
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 52.632% 52.63% 00.00% 440 0.00 { Ac9d }
Hand 1: 47.368% 47.37% 00.00% 396 0.00 { 99, 77, 44, AsTs, As8s, As6s, As5s, As3s, As2s, 97s, 65s }

And he's never folding any of those hands. (Except maybe 97s, but somehow Isort of doubt that.) So, overall we're pretty happy about this spot.

With any fd, I think V is capable of the flop c/r and now feels committed/thinks the A is a great card to barrel. So I'd include all broadway spades in that stove range. It doesn't change the play and actually increases our %, I just think the range you entered isn't wide enough.

$12 pre is fine.

There really isnt a better card other than another 9 in the deck to land. If you called the flop I think you have to have the plan continue here. And calling doesnt make sense so jam away. V could definitely have a ton of draws here versus a 7 combos of sets.

This.

In answer to your question yes your hand's equity does improve ott above and beyond the draw portion of his range blanking.

To see this put into poker stove his range (sets/2pr/draws) against your hand and the actual turn, vs your hand and a blank turn (2 for example)

You should see that your equity is greater in your 2pr example bc 1) you now dominate his 2pr range and 2) his flush + overs range (QJ for example) has less outs against you.

Ship.

hitting the ace is huge because a lot of his hands are now committed, and his range to c/r includes overpairs that just got axed

I'm never folding after this card, and I think he shovels all rivers regardless of whether it hits him or not, and maybe you can gain a tell on him if a spade hits, it's possible to get away from anyway

call/call imo

shove, hes committed and so are you with likely the best hand

Yes, that was the other part that I thought about on the drive home but forgot to write in the OP. There are six combos of TT that I move ahead of as well as possibly six combos of JJ; if we discount half say nine total combos of overpairs. Not sure how often an unknown checks in the dark with JJ, but some people seem to love this play after watching tv poker.

Thanks, I knew there were a couple other reasons my equity improved against his overall range. QJss has gone from 15 outs to 8 outs (since As is now a boat); in that scenario his equity goes from 54.6% OTF to 18.2% OTT.

it's obvs villain/history dependent but i'd be seriously tanking the flop and leaning toward a fold vs. an unknown who buys in 100bb. it feels like a close decision but sets such as 44 and 77 just seem so likely, given his call pf on the BB to a sizeable raise. If he's x/r the flop with a draw it's gonna be a combo with a lot of equity given his calling range pf oop, if he's kinda solid. TP/no draws doesn't fill me with joy on that flop vs. a x/r, i guess we have A kicker and position but still not sure I'd call. to be fair i might do. feels like we might be value-towning ourselves tho.

Probably folding to the flop raise since so few people c/r heads up OOP with draws on a 100bb stack. As played turn is an obvious shove. Better question is are you folding to an $80 turn bet on a blank overcard like Qc? What about a total brick like 2d?

The first part was something I wondered about a bit. If he's a decent player he shouldn't want to go to the flop HU OOP with QJss or A3ss for a raise; those hands can be dominated so often and will only pick up a good draw a small percentage of the time. Should I assume that a competent looking young player is calling pf with a pair most of the time in a spot like this?

And furthermore, as you say, should I assume that a 100bb stack is rarely going to c/r a drawing hand even in a HU pot? I know I like to use this move against c-bets sometimes, but is it a really small percentage of 1/2 and 2/5 players who routinely use this play?

In regard to your question, I planned on waiting to see his action as well and trying to get a read based on how comfortable he looked, how much he bet, and how quickly he bet. He bets $80 into $110 pretty quickly and seems confident, which is part of what makes this spot kind of sick. It started to feel more like a set from his betting, but I'm now able to beat every combo in his range that isn't a set. I think if he bets $80 into $110 when a Qc rolls off I can find a fold. Not sure what I'd do if the 2h feel TBH.

It's quite likely that his preflop calling range has more small pairs than hands that hit two-pair on the flop. If Villain check-raises overpairs (sometimes) and sets (always) on the flop and if he raise hands that beat overpairs on the turn --- then as you said the ace isn't a good card.

I'd assume that when Villain put in 25% of his stack on the flop he was pot-committed -- or very close to it -- not something he would do with an extremely wide range.

I strongly dislike folding the flop, this is way to strong of a hand imo, folding the bottom of your value range to a young guy check/raising the flop dark is lighting money on fire

good think the turn wasn't the Qc

results?

what's all this young guy stuff? does that make a difference? also i don't think he was x/r dark, he only checked blind and then he raised after he'd checked his hole cards (i assume).

Without any reads (ie since this is hand #3 with no significant actions on the first two hands), I am going to go by stereotypes a little bit. If this was a 90 year old man drinking coffee I would range his preflop calling range a bit differently and assume he rarely (if ever) makes a c/r with draws. A young guy in a hoody is generally more likely to have more of those moves in his arsenal.

I'll post results in a few more hours...want to let this marinate just a tad more.

ok well i've got ten sklansky bucks on pocket 4s/7s (L:

66 imo

Going off stack size and pot, This is a flop shove or fold, leaning closer to shove. Whyd you raise so much pre? By raising 6x pf, you make the effective stacks smaller, putting yourself into these higher variance situations.

Its important to have a plan for future streets depending on turn cards. I would ship it in this spot one of the best cards to hope for our range. Most decisions like these are difficult because of our lack of information on the player.

What is his likely range c/r the flop?

Once we know his range math will give up the right answer.

Make a plan and stick with it.

By calling the flop raise you need to have it made up that if the turn hits you/misses him you are getting it in or don't call the flop raise.

Don't go into these situations blind.