Sunday night at the Orleans. Game is nine handed and has been fairly loose preflop.

Villain 1 is a black female in her thirties. She just sat down about ten hands ago. She started off with a stack under $100, busted that and has reloaded to roughly $300. She seems to be playing fairly weak tight for live standards (VPIP/PFR 15/2).

Villain 2 is an Asian female in her fourties. She sat down about 30 hands ago. Her VPIP/PFR is 49/2. In one hand I observed, she called a 1/2 pot sized bet on a flop of J 9 7 in a five way limped pot, made a pot sized donk bet after a 2 turn and got called by one player, and bet again on a 5 river for a 1/2 psb, showing 2 2 and getting beat by her opponent's 7 7. She starts the hand with $467.

Hero is a late twenties caucasian male. My VPIP/PFR has been 14/10 at this point. I haven't lost a big pot in the last two hours and have been taking down several HU/3way raised pots with c-bets. I start with $580.

On to the hand:

Villain 1 opens for $12 in UTG+2. MP2 calls, Villain 2 calls in CO, I look down at K K and make it $45. V1 calls, MP2 folds, V2 calls. Flop comes T 8 6. I bet $90. V1 folds, V2 smooth calls. Turn K. V2 immediately (and out of turn) announces all-in. The dealer pays no attention to her out of turn bet and counts her chips, arriving at a total of $332. V2 appears pretty relaxed and confident. Hero ???

Based on her overall stats and the previous hand I have seen, I think this is the type of villain who will play fairly passive for most of the session and then push for value as soon as she thinks she has a decent hand. There are four possible combos of AK and (assuming V1 had QQ) just two combos of KQ. I think V2 is bad enough to flat/reflat with more flush combos than just Ax. The fact that she pushed so quickly after the arrival of the third club makes me lean heavily toward her holding a flush. Against a different villain I can see more instances of a semi-bluff, but against this villain I think my best case scenario is that she has over-valued a weird KX hand or is playing a flopped set in a very strange manner. I'm getting less than 2:1 on my call and need almost 4:1 to get odds for a full house draw; does she do this with a non-flush often enough for a call to be correct in this situation?

I'm not folding this in a 3bet pot. Raise more pre, $52-65.

I'm never folding in this spot. This Villain could have so so many hands we crush. Like pairs with the Ac. Sets. These types of Villains shove turns like this often because THEY are scared of another Xc hitting the river, with sets.

Can rule out 97 based on 3B pre/call.

Hands we beat:

K10, 1010, 88, 66, Ac10x, Ac8x, Ac6x, even hands like QcJx.

We don't beat:

Flushes. 97.

We beat so much of their range and against such an erratic player, I call. You aren't getting the right price if they have a flush, but plays like this to me are indicative of THEM being frightened of the Flush draw. At an educated guess I would say 8c8x is quite likely. We have too much crushed to fold here, and in this type of spot...

As played: CALL.

I'm not folding, but I'm betting much more on the flop and pre-flop (w/ ~$39 in, I'm raising to $60+).

The sizing seemed pretty good except I like closer to full pot on the flop. And I am stacking off here 100% o the time. It sucks if she turned it but you have outs, and since she played that 22 hand so poorly her range is much wider than just flushes here and you beat every thing else with the exception of 79.

Did the other V fold? There is a chance that more money could go into he lot and make it correct to call even if you are beat right now. Correct me if I'm wrong.

V1 folded OTF and later told me she had QQ (which I suspected while I was playing the hand; thought it was a bit more likely than JJ based on her body language when she called the 3b pf and tank folded OTF).

So sick that she folded the flop. It's too bad your decision would be so much easier with more money in the pot. I don't under stand how they allowed her action when she was OOP. Is there any chance that that was an angle shoot?

It was unfortunate that the villain I would prefer to isolate is in bad relative position to me. If she sat directly to my right or left I have a much better chance of isolating/getting isolated preflop and not having to worry as much about the flush draw OTF. If we're heads up and I range her as QQ/JJ I probably bet closer to 1/2 pot on flop to try to milk the likely overpair vs overpair scenario.

In regard to angle shooting, while there's always a chance, this player didn't strike me as being experienced/good enough to knowingly do this to angle shoot against AA/KK/QQ/AK.

Which brings me to the analysis of V2's range. While I definitely agree that her preflop range to flat/reflat is pretty wide, I think it gets a lot more narrow when she smooth calls the flop and insta-shoves $300+ OTT. I tend to expect her to raise sets in position OTF; maybe not a big raise, but something to get money in with deep stacks and a wet flop. I would think she would slow down rather than speed up when she sees a club and knows that her set is no longer the second or third nuts (i.e. at least causing her to think for a few seconds before shoving). Her turn shove seemed to be in response to seeing the K. Against a somewhat aggro player I can see semi-bluffs like QJ, but I don't see a passive player suddenly deciding, "Hey, I can get great fold equity, let me risk my entire stack on a move."

I can imagine her doing this with KT, but would she flat/reflat KTo or just KTs? I wondered the same thing about offsuit aces. For KTs there is 1 combo available (KT). I'm not positive that she gets this excited to shove with AK unless she has exactly AK. If I set up her preflop flat/reflat range in position to include all suited aces A7s+, suited broadways/suited connectors 76+/suited gappers 97+/suited double gappers J8+, then I'm losing to A7, A8, A9, AJ, AQ, QJ, 87, 98, 97, J9, J 8, Q 9 (12 combos of flushes) as well as the other three combos of 97s.

You have a set in a 3bet pot against an Asian woman without four cards to a flush or straight on the board. Please never fold.

It is pretty hard to guess exactly how often she doesn't have the flush. However, we can calculate how frequently she has to have it in order to make this a call. To start off with, you're being offered 2:1 to call. Even with top set against the flush on the turn, you have 22% equity. In order for you to have the 33% equity you need, she needs to have the flush about 90% of the time.

Almost nobody is going to have the flush that frequently in this situation. Harrington suggested that you need to assume that people are bluffing at least 10% of the time. Given the history, this is a call, although you're going to lose most of the time.

These are the hands I'd put in Vs range:

AcKs (1), KsTs (1), TT (3), 88 (3), 66 (3), and any suited clubs hands that can call a 3bet [AQ, AJ, QJ, A9, A8, A7] (6).

And after a free hand equity calculation I get a way +EV play. I don't know if she'd fast play flopped sets. If she can have more possibilities of suited clubs, then I guess she's also loose enough pre to have flopped 2 pair. Those cancel each other out a little. The equity calculation wasn't even all that close to 0, so even if my range is off, it'd have to be a lot off to turn into a -EV, so I'm not folding this.

I like the sizing both pre and on the flop. Maybe a touch more pre like $50.

Can't really fold against this villain.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

1,540 games 0.000 secs 308,000 games/sec

Board: Tc 8s 6c Kc
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 42.468% 42.47% 00.00% 654 0.00 { KhKs }
Hand 1: 57.532% 57.53% 00.00% 886 0.00 { TT, 88, 66, AcQc, AcJc, Ac9c, Ac7c, Ac5c, Ac4c, Ac3c, Ac2c, QcJc, 97s, AcKd, AcKh, AcKs, 97o }


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This is with a pretty narrow range. Venice kind of beat me to it.

You're getting 2:1~ 33%.
You're equity if she has the flush only is still 20%.
You need to make up that 13% to break even. If she has something other than a made flush less than 87% of the time then you're there. he can't possibly have it that often. Call and hope for a 6.

Haha this.

I like to at least PSB raise PF to avoid multiway pots so a bit more to around $60. Remember you need to include your calling of the $12 in the pot before you calculate your raise.

Flop bet is good also, but you may want to go a bit more with the flush draw out there multiway since the 2nd player to call gets decent odds to call to a OESD or flush.

I'm sure that her action wouldnt have 'stood' if you addressed it with the dealer or floor. That wouldnt prevent her from going all in if you bet anything different. The only way her action 'stands' is if you check ... and that may be what we want here anyways although the odds werent there the money may have gone in with the right odds had you opened and she raised/you reraise and so on.

The question is her range of hands of course but I also look at the ability to get my chips back or likelyhood that I will have another 'better' opportunity to get her chips later.

I think the money wouldve gone in anyway this hand, but you do have an escape avenue with the 'angle' bet. I think you are beat quite often here but there is KT out there ... Its a live call and I cant say I would call every time and I would probably lean towards getting her chips in a later pot. If you call and lose, then your stacks are way out of balance that you need to add on to take her on in future pots.

She has something ... set, flush, 2 pr .. we know that. Does she overbet the nuts like she overbet bottom set? That is the question .. It might be more tournament-like thinking for me here, but I can fold some of the time, just not all of the time!! GL

There's only one K left in the deck.

Easy call, enjoy the monies

Pre: $50-52

Flop: A touch more for a Cbet. That board is so wet...

A little quick with the evaluate button. Point remains. We way ahead of where we need to be.

you folded and she had Ac,Qc?