I can picture fold equity possibilities against some villains, but not others. I see so many fish that don't even consider bet/fold as an option OTF but will often fold to a turn barrel; they see the raise and think, "Oh well, guess I got five outs to make 2pair and stack his TPTK." And in multiway pots we don't always have to look at it as getting the initial bettor to fold out middle pairs to our raise; if initial bettor has the OESD and our raise causes someone who had checked up front to fold middle pair good kicker then we've accomplished something with our raise. From a playability standpoint we can make the turn and river a lot simpler when we do that as well.

How big of a flop raise do you like to use when making this play? 3.5x?

If we don't think we folds Tx to a flop raise then flatting is probably better because when we barrel the turn we get folds from Tx but also folds from his worse draws which we don't want. Also we have position so when it gets to the river and he checks to us we can consider trying to bluff him off Tx. But if our draw was worse, like a 9 high flush draw or something, then I think a flop raise and turn barrel is better because most, if not all, of his draws are beating us.

Just because he shows KT does not mean you made the incorrect call.

You made the incorrect call if you can't come up with 8-10 hands you beat.

It's close and probably thin to -EV overtime vs described villain.

Vs. 90% of llsnl villains it's a river shove though.

Also, how the **** do you track accurate VPIP/PFR stats for all of the players?

1) if the river bricks, he's calling you off huge
2) you're pretty far ahead for just considering the fold
3) we included boats in his range, so the range we constructed is right, if the next 25 times we don't see anything but boats, then we reconstruct, but for now we can't say it was a bad call