$1/2 NL (10 handed)

Prehand Descriptions
Villain: MAWG. Has been raising ~1/4 of his hands from all positions. Table talk suggests this is partly that he's on a heater, but there's no question in my mind that he's also raising light. I'm two to his left and looking for spots to 3b in CO or OTB, but so far have had only rags and haven't been quite ready to launch with ATC. Postflop, V is not particularly aggressive and seems to be basically straightforward.

Hero: Another generic MAWG. Generally tight, but recently showed down a hand in which I raised a $4 straddle with 2 - 3 callers to $20 OTB with 75o, losing.

MP V ($500)
MP+2 Hero ($320)
CO ($180)
BB ($250)

Hero is dealt 87

Folds to V, V raises to $10, H calls $10, CO calls $10, BB calls $10

I felt deep enough to play make-a-hand rather than turn this into a bluff. Very interested to hear reasoning behind other possible decisions.

Flop ($36) 753

BB checks, V checks, H bets $30, CO folds, BB folds, V calls $30

I didn't flop gin, but I might actually have the best hand here. I thought it was worth a bet to take it down. Interested in reasoning behind other lines.

Turn ($96) 8
V checks, Hero bets $65, V tanks, rearranges chips into several different orderly patterns* and then shoves, H?


*I don't think the chip rearranging per se is important. But it was fun watching him do it and I knew he was going to shove about a minute before he did so, which let me start my analysis ahead of time. I appreciated that.

Definitely seems like a call to me. You have blockers to 88 and 77. 55 and 33 are in his range, but he's taking a weird line with them, if that's the case.

96 and 46 would be very surprising.

Meanwhile, there are a ton of semibluffs in his range. J10cc, 910cc, axcc, overpairs, etc could all take this line.

PF: Standard, don't like 3-betting suited connectors in position when we can profitably flat. 3-betting is more attractive if villain either folds way too much to 3-bets, or if villain is a weak player and we are very deep.

Flop: Like betting here, once V checks he likely has whiffed overs and you've got the best hand a bunch (but a hand that is likely to get worse on future streets). Would be stabbing here with a fairly wide range. Don't think you need to make it quite so large, $20-$25 should be plenty.

Turn: Obviously betting again once we improve. Sizing looks good here as well, could go slightly larger if we want to set up an under pot river jam, but I think betting 2/3 pot here and then betting around 2/3 pot on the river will get more calls. As played, I'm calling this off. His opening range from MP should be weighted more to overpairs than hands like 88-77, 55, 33, 64 or 69 (and there's only one combo each of 88 and 77).

K6 is in the top 25% range that he would o/r with.

Why would JTcc, T9cc, and AXcc check/call this flop OOP? So they can c/ship a turn club?

OP, do you have any reason to believe V does this with over pairs? with Weaker 2 pair hands?

V has 8 combos of sets, 4 combos 96s, 4 combos 64s, 1 combo 75s, 1 combo 85s, 2 combos 87s, not sure if we can include off suit combos/any 53 combos. Also not sure if we can add weirdly played over pairs.

1. Fold pre. Don't call raises with weak hands. 87s suited is a call in the big blind to a small (like 2.5x) raise. In other words, pretty much never in a live game.

2. Don't bet to "take it down". Bet to bluff, or because you hope to get called by worse. On the flop, you have a weak SDV hand, with zero outs to the nuts, pretty much the worst type of hand to bet.

3. You're facing a smaller than pot-sized raise which means you can call if have 33% equity. There's no way for someone who wasn't there to guess what the Villain's range is in this spot and to tell if you have 33% equity.

4. I think the "secret" is to avoid putting yourself into a spot where you're guessing and change the way you play pre-flop and flop. I don't think the "secret" is to become a great guesser.

@SDV, no specific history with this V and OvP/2P hands. I've seen this line taken with OvP/2P hands in the past, so I certainly think it's possible, but I can't judge whether this V is more or less likely to take it.

Preflop is thin. You just barely deep enough to make this call and you don't have great position. You can venture this call occasionally if the table is passive but should be folding more then anything else.

The betting flop is OK once the original raiser checks but should have been $20/$25. Your not getting better hands to fold and there are not a lot of straight draws to charge.

When villain shoves it's all about reading villain's range. If you think he has a lot of semibluffs and/or over pairs in his range then it is an easy call. If you think the shove is a slow played big hand and your only beating worse two pairs then folding could be right. Pot odds lean towards calling, but if villain has a clue he will be aware of that an know he has less FE. That may reduce the chance villain is drawing but it's very villain dependent. Some will shove any fairly good draw in this situation because they hate to call and miss, other are never drawing when they shove.

Gotcha. Well, because you describe V as straightforward and "not particularly aggressive", I'd exclude overpairs from his range. In the moment, it's difficult, but I think this is a fold. Yeah, you have top 2 but when considering V's range and generally passive/straightforward play, I don't see your hand being good here 1/3 of the time so we can't justify a call.

I don't mind 3betting pre to take initiative if you are going to play but would probably fold majority of times.

If villan calls the 3bet you can call turn shove.

This hand requires so creative post flop play.

I fold turn ap.