Hero (250) white male young hoodie
V (covers) 40 yr old white male. no real reads, been at table 10 hands. I saw V make an aggressive action but the pot was super tiny I didnt think it deserved much weight.

Hero raises to 12 w 89 from CO, V calls from BB.

flop (25)

887

V check, Hero bet 20, V call.

Turn (65)

887T

V take 5 seconds and checks, Hero bet 40, V moves all in. Hero?

grunch: fold

tough one. when i first started typing this i put "call" but after putting a range on a regular 40yr old white guy (not omc, but not closer to that than a lag) i think the price is just too great. if he's ballsy enough to make a move good for him. unfortunately unless you think he's spewy or over values top pair (which i doubt) i'm having trouble giving him a wide range. you have such a strong hand; trips. you have outs to a boat and a straight. but he's acting like he has a made boat (uh oh) or a made straight (still uh oh but not as bad). but can we put Tx, JJ, QQ, 9x in his range? i think even most of that is probably wishful thinking.. at the very least we have to weight the hands we beat less than the ones that beat us. $180 is a big price to pay to find out here.

if i'm playing disciplined and giving it some thought i probably lay this down painfully. however... in a real life situation i probably snap it off before thinking it through.

bump

If you can reload after, I'm inclined to call as this feels more like a spaz than a made hand. I don't see a boat shoving here as you are taking a b/b/b line and he could always c/r the river or c/lead the river.

You've got 10 outs to boat up and another 8 to make a straight. He's not laying you a very good price though, which makes this a great bluff if that is what he is doing, but you have no reads on him to provide us so who knows... if it's you're only BI than fold I guess but I think you are good here often enough (or have outs to draw to if you are behind a bigger 8).

Have you done anything particularly noteworthy in those 10 hands? Any previous history with V before this session or complete unknown?

no history no nothing. First time even in this poker room.

A boat is rarely doing this. You gotta call this. Actually on review I might fold. Not sure. Can GG help

Ugh. Tough spot.

I'm trying to think of hands he would spaz with that we beat: 6d8d, 109, 99 or AdXd that floated the flop? Hard for him to have a weaker 8.

My gut says to fold. But in real time I'd probably call. But against an unknown we have to be behind here, right?

I think we've got to fold without reads. It's a super strong line and we're only at the middle of our range.

The I feel like the only reasonable hand we beat is 86, I guess maybe overpairs; but I don't like this spot without reads.

If he's making bad overshoves we'll have chances to stack him later, for now I'm giving up the $70 rather than getting stacked

Call.

It's a stove problem, really.

You're getting 1.6:1. You need ~38% equity.

Say you're up against:

77,A8s,T8s+,96s,87s,A8o,T8o+,96o,87o

You have ~39% equity against that range. I was surprised at how much equity you have really, but I guess the point is that you block some straights, some boats, and some better trips, and you have the re-draws to better hands and chops, as well.

In terms of the range, we could of course take out 96o, but that just bumps us up to ~43%. And I guess if he can have T8, then he can have combinations J8, Q8, K8. Adding all combinations of those hands suited and unsuited still has us around 38%. Adding everyone + TT gets us to 34%.

It felt like a crying call to me, and I think the equity calcs agree.

Grunch.

You're getting nearly 2:1. You've got outs to a straight and a boat and may have the best hand. Only TT has you drawing to only 1 out. I think you have to call here.

After reading responses:
If V is calling only with suited connectors, he can't have 87 or T8; all combos are blocked.
TT (3 combos) (lose)
77 (3 combos) (lose)
98s (1) (tie)
86s (1) (win)
A8s (1) (lose)
K8s? (1) (lose)


Against this range, we have only 20% equity and we're not quite getting 2:1, so that's a clear fold. If you add in the unsuited versions, our equity goes up to 27%, still a fold.

With unsuited versions and AA, we have 41% equity. Call.

With suited only + AA we have 50% equity. Call.

The moral of the story is that if he has pretty much anything in his range except 8's and boats you have to call.

Folding could easily be a bigger mistake than calling and this is an unknown.

Edit: Ninja'd by Willy. What he said.

Grunch:

Tough spot. Against a passive player I'd like to think I could fold here. 1.8:1 is not good enough to draw.

Against an unknown and in a blind battle I probably call. He can have an overpair here, possible he is getting out of line with a draw or overplaying a ten. We are getting decent odds.

I think I would call personally. There are plenty of hands he could have that you are beating. I tend to play the margins more than most but I still think you would win, at least, 1 in 3 times. If you folded, no big deal.

Progress, whatever you decided to do, I'm curious what your thought process was in making your decision.

For me, this spot doesn't come up often enough to have much of an effect on my win rate. I'm not often raising pre with 89s. When I do, I don't often flop trips. Last time I was in this spot the Villain turned (or rivered, I can't remember) a ten and they had pocket tens.

But I still think the decision is genuinely close and whatever you decide won't be a big mistake against the Villain's range though obviously it could be wrong against the Villain's exact hand.

From the Villain's perspective he has no idea your hand is as strong as it is. Personally I'm often barreling lots of hands worse than yours like AK or 99.

Essentially your decisions boils down to whether he can ever play a hand you crush like JJ this way. Would he 3bet it pre? Does he over-value over-pairs?

Long story short: Most people are not aggressively stacking off without a hand they think is the nuts or close to the nuts. But is your Villain "most people"?

I folded. I was thinking he was repping 69, 9J, TT or A8. Him having JJ/QQ/KK/AA is possible but not likely bc no 3bet pre and it would be a serious overplay. I got some weird intuition the way he checked the turn also, it just felt like he loved the turn card. He also snap moved all in. I also told myself that I was going to bet/fold the turn before I even bet it.

In my usual games this line is almost always a boat or a straight. This was a much bigger poker room and it was 3am though. I think that pushes his range farther to spew and overplaying junk like TJ.

Overall what you said about affect on winrate seems right. I'm starting to worry less about these close spots because I'm pretty sure the ev of one choice vs another is minimal and these spots don't come up too often. Bread and butter is just going to be c-bet bluffing good boards vs proper Vs and Value betting properly.

It did feel pretty disgusting to fold trips w a open-ender though lol not sure how I managed that.

Grunch:

If villain has a reasonable range here we definitely have to fold. We need 35% equity to call here. We almost have that vs a better 8x and 86, but we're crushed by 77/TT/87.

I think vs an unknown we should call here though. I could definitely see a rec player just "going with" Tx here, possibly slowplayed KK/AA, or maybe even a worse 8x. The turn also brings a diamond draw so he could be shoving 9x diamonds here if we're optimistic.

Easy call for all the aforementioned reasons.

I'm never folding this in LLSNL to an unknown under 60. It is just way too often that a random has overestimated his hand strength and thinks that a weak hand is the nuts. Obviously you can fold this with reads but making hero folds to unknowns in general is going to be -EV at LLSNL.