1/2 Turn decision 200+ blinds deep - Live Low-stakes No Limit Poker Forum

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1/2 Turn decision 200+ blinds deep

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01-15-2019 , 10:46 PM

aj3423

enthusiast

Join Date: Feb 2015 Posts: 59

($410) Villain, around 40, white guy. Has been on the table for 10 minutes, bought in for the full 300 and played one hand and won without showdown. He is the effective stack.

Villain opens utg+1 to 10, two calls and I 3 bet to 55 with J

from bb. Only villain calls.

Flop ($130)
A

I cbet 65 and he calls.

Turn ($270)
9

What should I do here? Is shoving for a bit more than pot a horrendous play?

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01-15-2019 , 10:49 PM

aj3423

enthusiast

Join Date: Feb 2015 Posts: 59

For the shove, I am expecting to get kk, qq and aj/q or weaker to fold but pretty much get called by any set or ak.

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01-15-2019 , 11:01 PM

Avian

enthusiast

Join Date: Sep 2018 Posts: 91

We block combos of AJ, and QJcc , KJcc, JTcc, so we can put less worry on a flopped flush draw for V

x/c flop, we improve on a lot of turn cards and being OOP doesn't help us much here
OTT, it's essentially a blank. If V fires again, it's likely he'll continue with all of his Ax and KQcc, at which point I would just fold to a double barrel here. The board is just too wet for our JJ to be good here in most cases, especially on that blank Turn card

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01-15-2019 , 11:13 PM

Jay S

old hand

Join Date: Jan 2007 Posts: 1,460

1. He folds KK/QQ to the flop bet most of the time.
2. He gets to the turn with AQ & folds it to a shove very rarely.

So yeah, a shove is pretty spew. We end up getting called by AK a ton. I'd give V nearly all of the 12 AK combos (plus occasional sets & AQ calls), and we're just not realistically folding out enough better hands to make up for that.

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01-16-2019 , 12:27 AM

twitcherroo

veteran

Join Date: Apr 2017 Posts: 2,482

You should surrender here. Shoving is horrible.

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01-16-2019 , 01:16 AM

aftrglw

grinder

Join Date: Jul 2012 Posts: 504

^+1. There’s way too many As in V’s UTG+1 opening range, you block none of them, and there are no combos you can fold out because they will almost all have decent equity here. Give up.

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01-16-2019 , 06:19 AM

troloyolo

grinder

Join Date: Jul 2012 Posts: 613

I'd start with a check on the flop. That's an A on board, AK/AQ/AT are not folding, and make up a good chunk of hands.

Maybe you can get V off of a hand like KQ/99 or worse that you beat, but when you bet he called, and you're probably ****ed. If you wanted to shove clubs, 78s, QJs, KQ I'd consider that reasonable, but JJ is a 2 outer vs the hands that call most of the time, so... I'd check and hope the river is a J.

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01-16-2019 , 06:39 AM

PackerStacker

enthusiast

Join Date: Feb 2015 Posts: 57

Never a fan of turning a hand with lots of SDV into a bluff, that's basically what you're doing by shoving the turn.

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01-16-2019 , 11:21 PM

TheSamasaurus

grinder

Join Date: Apr 2013 Posts: 603

shove is spew.

Overall you played this well assuming you surrendered turn. I like your sizing every step of the way.

It's important to realize too that if he checks back turn we shouldn't be betting river. Our hand is face up and he can potentially check back an ace here trying to induce a river bet or a light call and it's important we dont bite.

Last edited by TheSamasaurus; 01-16-2019 at 11:26 PM.

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01-17-2019 , 12:07 PM

#10

CRAIerrday

grinder

Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 424

Pre is good. I would cbet slightly larger on the flop, probably around 85-95, because a smaller sizing gives players an opportunity to float more often with a hand like KQ and make life difficult for you on the turn/river.

As played, I think a jam will get folds a lot of the time, but it's a high variance play and you have to be prepared to get looked up by hands like AQ/AK and also hands with equity like pair + flush draws, especially if you take this line regularly because players will adjust.

Personally I can't take that much variance so I would check/fold turn

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01-17-2019 , 01:25 PM

#11

shorn7

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2007 Posts: 4,495

Quote:

Originally Posted by aftrglw

^+1. There’s way too many As in V’s UTG+1 opening range, you block none of them, and there are no combos you can fold out because they will almost all have decent equity here. Give up.

This. And check the flop as well.

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