V (120). Deffinitely not a nit. Seems cally/gambly. Seeing a bunch of flops. Nothing major read wise this is my 7th hand.

Hero. (Covers). No reads on me I have been inactive.

Hero raises TsTd utg to 10, 3 callers including v in CO.

Flop (40)

9c 6c 5c.

Check to hero who bets 40. V calls. Rest fold.

Turn (120)

Ad.

V has 70 left. Check or bet here?

Thanks in advance.

I'm probably just c/f flop, or betting $25 and mostly giving up to further action. C/f turn even though it's good odds, can't see what you're beating unless V is a major fish.

I don't know why you bet so much on the flop. Can you explain?

Blech. Just shove it on the turn. He has ~1/2 psb left, there's tons of draws and pair+draws for him to chase on that board, and his range is probably wider than Ac and other nutted hands.

I hate short stacks.

I bet so much for value. If they are calling 20 they are calling 40 was my thinking.

On that board, I think your equity is materially lower than you think it is. Absolute vs. relative strength in a four way pot.

Who is calling you that is a big dog to your hand? For perspective, you're only 53% to win versus Qc4h. Anyone with a club and one over to your hand is basically flipping a coin. Also anyone with the bare 8c or 7c is flipping vs you. You're behind two overs when one is a club. You're behind Ac8x. Etc.

I think you're not getting called here by 6x, 5x, or gutterball draws that don't have a club.

If you're working under the assumption that their calling range is inelastic, that's an argument to not bet more, because you're not materially ahead of their calling range. Their range consists of hands that are flipping vs. you and hands that are crushing you. A bet here is not for value.

raising more preflop especially UTG, cbeting the flop for 1/2-2/3 pot size then checking the turn hoping to get to showdown.

I think you would have to bet and let him make mistakes with what ever he has , otherwise you let him play pretty much perfect with all of his range . It is too much in the pot for you to give up vs loose range

Doesn't look like you had much of a plan for the hand. Knowing your stack size relative to other players at the table would help.

On my first orbit, I probably just limp and set-mine here. Maybe if you have a few vague reads you could make a case for limp/squeezing.

People won't call a PSB with q4o or a non nut club and an over (which is good for us).

I like the raise pre. Raise to the most you can that won't limit ranges to JJ+.

I too was completely uncertain what to do on the turn. I was pretty certain equity against his range was low, but thought that maybe a shove would fold out enough hands we're behind to squeak out some value.

Enter Flopzilla.

At my game, $10 is a modest raise, so I'll assume V's range is:

• any pocket pair
• any two broadway
• any suited ace
• K9s+
• 54s+
• 75s+

I agree flop bet is too big, but you can at least be pretty sure he's got something solid when he calls: straights, sets, overpairs, at least some top pairs, flush draws, maybe some straight draws.

The turn ace smacks all the NFDs and scares the overpairs and any 9's without an ace. But that's only about a third of his range and you've got about 2/3 the pot left. Shoving won't fold out quite enough of his range to be profitable and your equity if he calls is around 2%.

c/f.

Not to hijack the thread, but I'm very interested in any comments on the range I assigned. Too loose? Tight? More of something, less of something else?

K9s+? What about 9T J9 Q9? When I bet I was thinking I could get value from all his 9x.

Fair point. I increased range to any 9+9+ to include all the hands you mention along with A9, and K9. As you'd expect, that improves matters greatly. He's now folding a bit less than half the time to a turn bet, assuming he folds the 9's.

My equity estimate was also off. That assumed the only flush draws he'd continue with is to the A, which is probably too conservative. Including K-high flush draws (or worse) increases equity if called to 12% (or better).

Appreciate all the work your putting in case. So end result is it's close enough to not be overly concerned with this spot? That was my initial reaction to the hand.

My pleasure. Yes, I also think it's very close.

If it were checked down, you should have 40% equity, worth about $48.

If you shove, EV is roughly 45% * 120 - 55% * 70 = $15.

You're OOP, so that $48 in check-down equity is actually much smaller, but I think it's probably slightly better than shoving. If we assume you're usually good when it's checked down, that needs to happen, say, 20% of the time for you to get $15 in EV.

Agreed. But my point is when trash hands like that have that much equity against you, you really aren't ahead of their calling range by a material amount. The flop c bet isn't for value.

You basically have to hope people are calling you with bare pairs that are worse than yours. The problem is so many combos of those pairs made draws on this board that the bet isn't good.